Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Could someone please explain the term "sideways" to me....I'm getting a handle but the terminology is holding me back :1zhelp: ...[probably a stupid question, but what the heck]
Oh and I agree with the post "interesting psychological phenomenon occuring here"....and I ridicule my blister for watching the afternoon soaps......at least I'm learnin' sumthin'......and I'm not :drink: ing
Thanks... :dance:

Nelly,

Sideways simply means not going up and not going down, just chopping along at roughly the same price.

If you look at a chart of this you will see where the term sideways comes from.

Cheers

 

[NettAssets]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Could someone please explain the term "sideways" to me....I'm getting a handle but the terminology is holding me back

Hi Nelly,

If you see the price bars on a price chart marching straight across the chart with little vertical movement this is a "sideways" move. Just means it is gaining or losing very little in the stock price.
This does not always mean the stock is not changing in value - sometimes there can be dilution or consolidation in the shares in the company (that is more shares issued or removed from the register )without a corresponding change in the share price or a change in the economic strength of the company without a change in the share price. This is what the fundamentalists are watching.

...(probably a stupid question, but what the heck)

I think you have probably seen it said before - the only stoopid question is the unasked one that kills you in the market.
Regards
John

 

[NettAssets]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Whoops
Wayne beat me to it
John

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist

Quotation from MIT as follows:

It may take years before the market recognises that you were right all the time about the company .


This is my main objection to your rigid approach. While you are hanging on to this wonderful undervalued marvel, awaiting its recognition by the market and a conseqent rise in the SP, you could have had your money actually doing something more profitable than just passively accepting the dividends.

Julia

So instead of buying into a fantastic company and waiting patiently for it's share price to rise to match its excellent business credentials and large and ever growing profits. All the while collecting good dividends and sleeping comfortably in the knowledge you are investing safely in a great company.

You instead suggest we buy a share that is currently rising, in the hope that it will continue to rise and hopefully wont fall. And if it does fall, jump off it to reduce losses and jump onto the next one that comes along and is currently rising?

I don't get it?

Are you buying into companies or share prices? There is a huge difference.

Westfield is a company that owns shopping malls, if it continues to make good profits and pays good dividends its share price may go up or down a bit purely because of people's emotions. Just because others don't currently like it does not mean it is not a great company.

Traders buy share prices, investors buy into companies.

It is irrelevant in the whole scheme of things if a share price of an excellent company goes up or down a bit over a 1 year period. The fluctuations are based on emotion not fundamental facts. History shows that in most cases the share price will eventually reflect the intrinsic value of a business. So if you bought it when it was cheap you'll get an excellent compounding return, ever growing dividends, your tax and brokerage will be minimal and your stress levels low.

I can not see a downside - except possible short term frustration for those not patient enough or confident enough in their investments to look past market fluctuations and not expect instant profits.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Nice, but the next high or low, what is it?

I bought BHP and RIO near their May/June low - I pretty much called the low - woop-de-do, it aint rocket science.

What does Radge think the next high or low is??

Your amazing never happy for what its worth a Wave 5 has been called at around 6400.
But if you dont understand the Dynamics of Elliot its meaningless.

Much like most of your posts.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Elliot/Radges Analysis--- Here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3310&page=2&pp=20

From Post #22 down note the date stamp.
Way Way out of your league Unrealistic.

BSD
Took me many years but Ive seen it happen far to often to dismiss.
Personally I only use it to map.However as a Possible Portfolio exit trigger its at least worth a look.(If I went short it would be the index not the stocks individually).
Ever looked at Steidelmayer as your a statistical buff?

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

for what its worth a Wave 5 has been called at around 6400.

So, let me get this right you say the next correction (10% or greater fall) is at 6400?

Ridiculous.

The next correction will be way way sooner than that. If we get over 5500 before the next 10% drop I'll be surprised.

Hopefully it is 6400 - I highly doubt it though. The market wont rise 28% before it next takes a freefall.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

The next correction will be way way sooner than that.

Based upon? your guess? Your analysis--if so please share.
Your past track record is where? I supplied my references----yours are?

Ridiculous.

Exactly my thoughts---then I took the time to investigate and UNDERSTAND the analysis.My veiw over many years has changed to Amazing,Uncanny,helpful.

Every now and then in life you find a gem---Radge is one of them.
Directly he has single handedly had by far the greatest impact on my trading.
Made me a lot of money----Following his wisdom and vast experience.
He's (I have found him to be) no nonsense,doesnt suffer fools easily, a true professional and HONEST.

Not to mention holding a Financial Investment licience granted by ASIC--a real one.

You know there is a very old and wise saying which I reckon fits you to a tee.

"He with biggest mouth has smallest wallet".

Wannabe's the world's full of 'em.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis



Hi folks,

Now, those in the EW camp can claim whatever they wish,
but here's the facts about the Aussie market in 2006,
including a look ahead:

At the start of the Gann year, this was posted regarding XJO:

Thursday, March 23, 2006 - 07:29 pm:

Happy New Year Gannsters,

Just for the record ... would like to see
XJO drop like a stone, from 5386 .....

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/12/228584.html

-----

Then on the day of the high 10 May 2006, XJO made it
to 5404, before closing below our 5386 target, at 5352.

..... and in the SPI thread, on ASF:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=44323#post44323

10th-May-2006, 01:32 PM Re: Trading the SPI

Hi folks,

As targetted, in our 23032006 and 07042006 posts:

XJO ... today, we reached out 5386 target
from 13 March 2003 lows.

Actual high today has been 5406, but it very
quickly pulled back to trade around our 5386
target ..... so, we have seen this market
DOUBLE in value in 1155 days.

=====

~~~~~~~~~~~~


Today 10052006, is also exactly 180 days ahead
of our target low, on 07 November 2006 ... ???

Let's see, how this lot unfolds.


. ..... more about the similarities,between 1987 and 2006, later.

end quote

=======================================
=======================================

So, our time target is 07 November 2006 for a significant
low, calculated from BOTH the March 2003 lows and the
recent high on 10 May 2006.

Other key dates to watch will be, around:

24 August 2006

23 September 2006

07 November 2006 ..... low??? = 10 May 06 + 180 days.

17 November 2006 ..... low???



( 7 November also marked lows, in 1978 and 1979 .....

So, despite what the EW camp is saying, we have probably
already seen XJO highs for 2006.

Looking at likely support levels for XJO in the months ahead:

4787 - 4598 - 4188

Would like to see a bounce off 4188 and any break below
that level would have us look for further support, at:


3916 - 3876 - 3599

-----

After the anticipated lows around 07 November 2006, XJO
should give us a steady recovery in 2007 , with particularly
STRONG advances around, 15-21 February 2007.


Of course, ALL of the above may be TOTALLY wrong, but
we just have to call it, as we see it in our analysis ...

-----

Now, if the EW crowd can just decide where/when to START
their wave count, maybe they can post a forecast for the
rest of 2006 for a comparison ..... yes???

have a great weekend all

yogi

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

For those interested in the basics.
http://www.asx.com.au/research/charting/library/elliot_wave.htm

Now, if the EW crowd can just decide where/when to START
their wave count, maybe they can post a forecast for the
rest of 2006 for a comparison ..... yes???

I know you know better than that.
But just incase I over estimate your competence----why would you say this about your own analysis---

Of course, ALL of the above may be TOTALLY wrong, but
we just have to call it, as we see it in our analysis

Both forms suffer from the same starting point vagueness.Which when you understand the analysis isnt vauge at all,the dynamic nature of price action means that the analysis is constantly being proven or disproven.

Fundamental analysis suffers the same fate. Proven or Disproven

 

[Sean K]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Good promo for Nick R, Tech-A.

Do you get commission? he he

I might have to give him a try. I am a dear with no eyes in the market really.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I agree with Tech/a,

My is as follows:-

Basically in terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the way I see it, Cycle wave 3 completed in May if considering a wave count that originated in the early 80's. Nick Radge in my opinion quite accurately forecast a major pivot based on fibonacci ratios some months before this decline. Nick showed an analysis that promoted a completd 5 wave sequence. This was perfectly within the guidelines, rules and framework of the wave principle. However when you take momentum considerations into account, it appears that we may have only finished a cycle wave 3 count. The reason? The Law of Alternation, which states that if wave 1 is a sharp deep correction (ala crash of 87) then wave 4 (which we have just commenced in this correction) more often than not will be a sideways move. Now remember this is not a rule just a guideline. In the end the market will do what it wants to do. But having observed hundreds of impulse waves in the last 8 years covering stocks, futures and foreign exchange, this is the sort of scenario I would be looking at.

A wave 4 sideways move can take various forms:-
-a contracing triangle
-a flat
-an irregular flat (which means a new higher unorthodox top, but that high would still be part of the correction and imply a sharp fall there after
-a combination of the above

In the chart below( which I sent Richkid some time back) I have placed a contracting triangle because that is what I have seen happen most. But it probably won't turn out that way. Just my opinion.

Irrespective of whether we have just finsihed a 3rd or 5th wave, makes no difference in the short to medium term as they both imply the same thing. The is the beatifull thing about Elliott Waves, you can have different counts which still point to the same conclusion.( as a trader you would like to stack the odds in your favour) In this case a correction at least back to the 4000-4100pts zone, as I have mentioned on other threads, even though Realist thinks I am looney for making such suggestions in the past.

In my opinion this market will find support in this zone before making another significant rally upwards, but not make a new high. Personally I beleive this market will trade nett sideways, (but offer good opportunites to trade ) in the next 2-3 years. (We have had a very strong 3rd wave upward and that rate of change of preice just cannot be sustained in the short term )Thereafter to blowoff into new highs to the 6000-6500 range in a 3 year rally to complete wave 5 and the impulse that started back in the 1980's.

That is the way I am approaching it.

Cheers

*- I am not qualified to give financial advice- any comments stated regarding the probabilities of financial market movements are purely personal opinions and observations. Any charts posted are for educational purposes only for intersted parties. It should be recognized that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Both forms suffer from the same starting point vagueness.Which when you understand the analysis isnt vauge at all,the dynamic nature of price action means that the analysis is constantly being proven or disproven.

Fundamental analysis suffers the same fate. Proven or Disproven

...... not so, <edited - abuse>
There's absolutely NO vagueness with the Gann stuff,
that's why we can beat your stock picks to pulp, every time !!

We noticed, that you did not enter this month's contest .....
as a self-appointed guru, you could not bear to be seen losing badly 3 months in succession ..... eh???

... and there's nothing vague about that either !~! ... lol ...

When the EW camp can come up with some firm dates and
price levels for market turns, instead of each trader having
a different wave count, as a result of different starting
points, then it will be a whole lot more impressive .....

..... until then, Gannsters would seem to have the edge ...

byeee

yogi

P.S .... and it seems the mouthy guru still can't distinguish
between a genuine price move and a capital split,
consolidation or reconstruction, either ..... lol

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Thanks Wave.

The Duck will be in London This time next week and back end of August.
Enjoying the goodlife like all successful Ducks.

Dont worry too much Yogi perhaps you'll win the lottery one day and learn to enjoy life and not take yourself to seriously.
Those competitions dont pay that well---pity.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis



<edited-abuse>

Those tipping competitions may not pay anything in monetary
terms, but they sure do help to demonstrate a consistent,
tradable and profitable methodology, something that your
picks have so far, failed to deliver ..... !~!

Second thoughts, maybe we CAN turn your picks into a
tradeable system for short trading, as they always end
up in the red ..... lol ..... !~!

bye <edited-abuse>

yogi

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi Yogi,

If the Gann astro stuff works for you, then great. I have seen some of the dates and forecasts you have posted. Some are good and some not so good. How do you know the good from the garbage? As far as I am concerned they are just dates. Like fibonacci ratios, if you used in isolation sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Way too inconsistant to trade. The market will do what it wants to do simple as that.

There is no holy grail. I have looked at the work of all the so called Gann Gurus: Ferrera, Cowan, Michael S Jenkins just to name a few. There is some useful material there, as someone always has something to offer. But most of it is trash.

I attended a seminar once of a famous Gann trader whom I will not name. I wanted to learn more about Gann. He actually convinced me to stick to Elliott. For him it made no difference. First and foremost he stated was to get a firm foundation of how markets and prices move. You should be able trade from bar chart and volume first. He claimed in order to use the Gann and Elliott stuff succesfully then you needed to be really good at it. His approach to Gann did not utilize the astrology hocus pocus. In fact he stated that he had personally viewed 95% of Ganns original work and that there was no evidence that Gann used astrology as the major basis for his trading. His approach is actually quite simplified and the way he uses it has a reasonable track record. He used an integrated Gann/Elliott approach. Magdoran has shown some great examples of this. Now I understand as an Elliott wave practioner that theory has some shortcomings especially with regard to time analysis. I have since integrated my own Cycle analysis from my work as a noise and vibration engineer into my elliott studies. These cycle studies are nothing like what Gann promoted but I feel much more comortable with them.

Let me ask you now. What is your Gann guru forecast for this market between now and years end? We want some firm dates here, not maybe or ??? dates. Which direction will this market trend and what level will we see a pivot. YOU CANNOT HAVE MORE THAN ONE ANSWER!! I will hold you to these levels and dates. See if you can make us beleivers of Gann Astrology!!


I will finish by saying this: Every methodology can have something to offer. Personally I use bits and pieces of many methodologies. If it works for you it may not work for others and vice versa. Do what works for you instead of condeming something you don't understand

Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

1. I disagree. A company that has made a profit and paid dividends every year for the past 20 years is more likely to make a profit and pay dividends than one that has made losses and never paid dividends. Business is not random. People will shop in Westfield and drink VB in 10 years time.

However, what makes an investor or trader money is the stock price. The stock price and company performance are not always correlated the way one is hoping for. 30 years of hoping to realise the company was and still is a dog seems a waste. A tad exagerated, but you get the point.

Are you buying into companies or share prices? There is a huge difference.

And this is where the ideology diverges.

 

[mit]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Except forums methinks. (No finger pointing intended, just the observation that there seems to be quite an interesting psychological phenomenon on display here from those that DO actually know what they're talking about.)

I think that it depends on whether you know the everybodies drivers. I don't usually get involved in these but my other great interest is science and I have seen plenty of "debates" between creationists and scientists on forums and see how they develop. Realist was showing the same psychology as psuedoscience people. I wanted to see as the the debate would develop. Notice I moved it from his usual attack on T/A to make him try and defend his F/A and as I thought it turned into almost the same style of debate as a YEC. That is keep on stating the same premise over and over. When somebody brings up an objection ignore it or nitpick some minor point. Then go back to parroting the same premise over and over again.


MIT

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yogi,

Tone down the personal insults mate.

Thanks

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi folks,

~~~~~

So, our time target is 07 November 2006 for a significant
low, calculated from BOTH the March 2003 lows and the
recent high on 10 May 2006.

Other key dates to watch will be, around:

24 August 2006

23 September 2006

07 November 2006 ..... low??? = 10 May 06 + 180 days.

17 November 2006 ..... low???



7 November also marked lows, in 1978 and 1979 .....

So, despite what the EW camp is saying, we have probably
already seen XJO highs for 2006.

Looking at likely support levels for XJO in the months ahead:

4040

Would like to see a bounce off 4040 and any break below
that level would have us look for further support, at:

3722 - 3367


-----

After the anticipated lows around 07 November 2006, XJO
should give us a steady recovery in 2007 , with particularly
STRONG advances around, 15-21 February 2007.


Of course, ALL of the above may be TOTALLY wrong, but
we just have to call it, as we see it in our analysis ...

-----

Now, if the EW crowd can just decide where/when to START
their wave count, maybe they can post a forecast for the
rest of 2006 for a comparison ..... yes???

have a great weekend all

yogi

Sure glad Wavepicker asked for some firm dates and figures,
as there were some mistakes in the figures above.

All the dates are the same, but here's the corrected figures:

07 November 2006 ..... low = 10 May 06 + 180 days .....
and shooting for XJO at 4040 ..... nothing vague about that
Wavepicker.

As per post above, there's nothing vague about this either.

"After the anticipated lows around 07 November 2006, XJO
should give us a steady recovery in 2007 , with particularly
STRONG advances from 15-21 February 2007."

=====

On the way down to expected support at 4040, we will
be alert for intermediate support at:

4787 - 4489 - 4357 - 4040

Also on the way down, we will be also alert for significant
news/moves on these key dates:

24 August 2006

23 September 2006

07 November 2006 ..... low = 10 May 06 + 180 days.

17 November 2006 ..... double-bottom low


=====

So now, if the EW camp with be just as explicit about
their forecast for XJO, then we will all benefit.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... again ... XJO low 07 November 2006, at 4040.

( 7 November also marked lows, in 1978 and 1979 ..... )