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WHC - Whitehaven Coal

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Coal stocks did well today: Coronado (CRN) up 12%! after a response to media announcement yesterday.
YAL, NHC, WHC all up.

Can see how WHC has broken above the recent 7 months of downtrend resistance, has a healthy spread of the moving averages and today went above the last daily swing high, albeit on modest volume. But my current target is $6 then see. Optimistic that I'll get back to break even this calendar year, as long as there's not a crash, and receive dividends while awaiting an up cycle for coal.

Held
Holding

DAILY
 
arguably the coal cycle is kicking in now , the very large names in international coal seem to be divesting ( or have divested ) and the smaller leaner players are buying up the assets

WHC should be resistant to normal economic cycles now , with the BHP assets still digesting , it should now have scale , synergies ( after tax write-downs ) AND exposure to tier one customers ( courtesy of BHP )

it is still likely to be a target of those ( lovely ) activists , so be ready for some high-profile stuff from them ( at almost any time )

the world does not have enough energy for the grandiose development plans , solar/wind isn't reliable enough yet , wave-energy is still in it's infancy , nuclear will hit speed-bumps and oil and gas can only fill some much of the deficit , in fact 'green energy' now includes 'biomass ' ( wood-pulp and wood )

now sure coal may be obsolete in 20 years time , but will i be alive to wave goodbye to coal ?
 
Market Matters this morning:

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
report/what-matters-today-is-it-too-late-to-buy-the-energy-sector/

Coal

"Coal is often referred to as dirty fossil fuel but such flippant comments miss the point that coal is split into two distinctly different types although both have struggled over the last 18 months:

Coking/Metallurgical (Met) coal, which is used primarily in making steel, is a requirement for many green energy solutions moving forward.
Thermal coal, which is used primarily for the generation of electricity.
We see higher prices in the years ahead for coking coal as the world reins in fresh mining of coal, whereas the demand for thermal coal will largely hinge on how successfully the world makes the transition to carbon zero through alternative energy sources. As we mentioned in the Weekend Report, we believe Met Coal is an essential element on the path to achieving net zero. It’s hard to build wind turbines and other renewable infrastructure without steel!
We believe Met. Coal is looking for, or has found, a low."

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $5.77

"This predominantly Met Coal miner has bounced over 35% from its April low although similar to the underlying commodity the trend is still down. The company is delivering operationally, and is on track to meet FY25 guidance; the stock needs the Met Coal price to bounce, or at least stabilise. The company reported a $328 million profit for the first half and rewarded shareholders with a $72 million buyback. After strengthening its balance sheet, it’s well-positioned for when the commodity turns. We thought it was very positive to see Australian Super invest in WHC, a move the superannuation giant insists is consistent with its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, and our take on its position in the ESG evolution.

WHC has positioned itself perfectly for when the coal price recovers, having evolved the business to primarily focus on coking coal mining following the acquisition of Daunia and Blackwater. It’s been a tough journey over recent years, but we remain comfortable with our fundamental reasoning, just not the share price! Expect additional information on capital management at the upcoming result.
We are initially targeting a retest of the $7 area through 2025: MM holds WHC in its Active Growth Portfolio."

Held
Holding
 
Bit surprising? Thought an industry super fund would operate under woke climate emergency restrictions.

Market Matters today:
"Australian Super now owns 6.17% of Whitehaven Coal (WHC) -0.69%, worth around $300mn, making it their 2nd largest shareholder"
 
qldfrog said:
A bit scary as could become a trojan horse if the ALP start pushing its super control to fund its pet projects
Click to expand...
' if ' ???

it was always a danger after all nearly all the unions donate to the ALP and supply support staff in the campaigns

the only question is Green tint or Red tint to board pressure
 
finicky said:
We believe Met. Coal is looking for, or has found, a low."
Click to expand...
WHC has done well lately given the Met. Coal price.

Here's something to keep an eye on from the MoM lads.

  • China sent a rare shipment of at least 3 cargoes of coking coal to processors in Indonesia's Sulawesi, encroaching on a market typically dominated by supplies from Australia and Indonesia (Reuters)
 
My initial target of $6 reached today but will likely need some cementing in the days/weeks ahead? Strong moves in a few other coal stocks today: SMR, NHC. Even CRN, which actually has a pretty interesting chart, from a daily perspective at least, and might be basing. Yancoal not doing as much today.

There appear to be modest moves in front month prices, both thermal and coking, but I'be lying if I claimed to really follow it. Maybe some entities are punting that a major low has been made? Anyway as said, my 'plan' is to hang in, pick up dividends and wait for the turn in demand. Might even have to sit out a global deflationary bust for all I know.

WHC and NHC Held

DAILY


Thermal

 
Market Matters afternoon report

Coal stocks had a day in the sun, following their US counterparts higher. Reduced exports from China + the potential for more positive tax treatment in the US supported the move – Whitehaven (WHC) +8.2%, New Hope Corp (NHC) +6.53%
 
Whitehaven slammed today, probably a result of broker manipulation?

WHC AU: Whitehaven Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT A$7.10
WHC AU: Whitehaven Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT A$6.10

Held
Holding, possible accumulate
 
WHC had a good day today after their 2025 results were announced.

Have some concerns with their cash flows over the next couple of years though(remembering i am no accountant).

Cash on hand is AUS$1206m and NPAT was $319m.

They have the US$500m payment due April 26 but they may also have the following (from 2024FY report).
Whitehaven has agreed to pay additional consideration in the form of a 35% revenue share, capped at a total of US$900m
over three years. The revenue share is subject to average realised prices achieved by the Daunia and Blackwater mines
exceeding respective thresholds of US$159/t in the 12-month period from 2 April 2024, US$134/t in the 12-month period
from 2 April 2025 and US$134/t in the 12-month period 2 April 2026. Annual payments are capped at maximum of US$350m.

Given the Qld operations averaged AUD$233(about US$150) they may be above the above threshold for this revenue share over the next 2 years. If the Japanese didn't take any of this on when they bought 30% of the project then WHC may be up for US$350m for each of the next 2 years.

So 2026 would be US$500m payment plus US$350m revenue share = US$850m, approx AUD$1322 the next FY.
2027 would be US$350m, approx AUD$540m.

Happy to be corrected, given the price rise today I may be missing something.
 
@houtman the above looks too complicated for me to rassle with. I'll just hang with the vibe.

Held
Possible accumulate if it goes low enough. I'm now at slightly below break even with my average.
The pronounced hammer candle made today is bullish in a downleg, the more so in response to an earnings report imo.

Market Matters comment this afternoon:

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $6.63​

WHC +3.11%: Recovered from early weakness after a solid, no-surprises result. It was encouraging for longs to see investors “buy the dip”.
  • Revenue of $5.83bn was in line with Blomberg consensus of $5.83bn.
  • Underlying EBITDA of $1,355mn was in line with Blomberg consensus of $1.357mn.
  • Final dividend of 6c came in slightly above the 5c expected.
Even with softer FY26 guidance, the strong result and ongoing buyback support our growth thesis – we continue to own the stock in the Active Growth portfolio.
MM remains long and bullish on WHC

 
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