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WHC - Whitehaven Coal

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finicky said:
15 minute chart of WHC. Strong reversal on this scale.
Click to expand...

Agree Finicky .. The 15m chart looks "enticing"

The devil's advocate in me suggests ...

High Range/high Volume bars off recent lows (particularly "1st moves") need to be treated with some (lots) of caution ...

This is not a Spec Stock so I am only postulating/guessing, so my opinion is basically worth JS

I'd still back WHC as a "reduce" on decent spikes, but who knows?!

Good luck with it.
 
... but ... if you can wait for the big dips , it plays like a trading stock , albeit more suitable for trend/swing/channel trading

.. not nibble in the dips , as WHC wrestles with all the new assets/customers it bought from BHP ??

be as cautious as heck for sure , but those 'activists ' create some amazing opportunities for the patient
 
Seems almost as relevant to WHC considering the transfer of the Daunia and Blackwater mines as well as whatever other interests WHC might have in socialist QLD. Increased state royalties in combination with federal income tax is an effective tax rate of 62% says BHP. These Labor r'sholes obviously think the capital and labour of the bad coal miners should be dedicated to their party's needs.

Held

BHP vows to end Queensland coal investment in protest against royalty hikes
 
Whitehaven Coal’s acquisition of Daunia and Blackwater metallurgical coal mines now unconditional

Whitehaven Coal (Whitehaven) is pleased to announce that all conditions precedent have now been satisfied to allow completion of Whitehaven’s acquisition of 100% of the Daunia and Blackwater metallurgical coal mines and all of the shares in South Blackwater Coal Pty Ltd from BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (“BMA”).

The transaction is scheduled to complete on Tuesday 2 April 2024.
On completion, Whitehaven will pay US$2.0 billion to BMA, which is the balance of the upfront consideration1, together with customary completion adjustments, to be funded by a US$1.1 billion term facility and cash held on the balance sheet. Paul Flynn, Managing Director & CEO, said that Whitehaven and BMA are well prepared for a smooth transition to occur on 2 April.
“This is an important milestone for Whitehaven and for our people, including the transferring employees we will be welcoming into our workforce from Daunia and Blackwater.
Through this strategically important acquisition, we will be doubling the size of our business and transforming Whitehaven into a leading metallurgical coal producer.
“I thank the teams at Whitehaven, BMA, BHP and Mitsubishi who have been working hard preparing for the transition.
We are well placed to take ownership of the new assets and to seamlessly maintain supply for our steel producing customers across Asia.
I also thank our shareholders, suppliers, community members and other important stakeholders who have supported us through the acquisition process.
“We look forward to a long and prosperous future as a leading metallurgical coal producer while continuing to supply high quality thermal coal to our customers in Asia to underpin energy security through the energy transition.”

i hold WHC ( 'free-carried' )

now lets see if fears of 'choking' or state governments royalty grabs give me a 'top up opportunity '
 
Not a good look for Whitehaven
I'm in the red now but will look for an add if it gets down to $5.00 - 5.50, chart depending.
Greg Canavan (fat tail investment advisory) reiterated his buy rec yesterday.

HELD

WEEKLY

 
Vietnam one of our regional customers.
Article goes on to say multinationals are delaying investment decisions, e.g. in building semi conductor factories due to power security concerns. Headline is hyperlinked.
Held and Holding. Buy more?

Vietnam boosts coal imports as it promises investors no more power cuts​

"The Southeast Asian nation, which hosts large manufacturing operations of multinational companies like South Korea's Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab, Taiwan's Foxconn (2354.TW), opens new tab and Japan's Canon (7751.T), opens new tab, is facing increasing pressure after it could not guarantee continuous power supplies during a prolonged heatwave last summer. Some factories were forced to temporarily suspend production."

Whitehaven's customer locations:

 
BHP completes the divestment of Daunia and Blackwater

BHP and Mitsubishi Development Pty Ltd (MDP) have completed the divestment of the Blackwater and Daunia mines to Whitehaven Coal. Daunia and Blackwater were part of the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) metallurgical coal joint venture in Queensland.
Each of BHP and MDP hold a 50% interest in BMA.
Whitehaven Coal has paid BMA US$2.0 billion cash consideration on completion plus a preliminary completion adjustment of US$44.1 million for working capital and other agreed adjustments (100% interest basis). Whitehaven Coal paid a US$100 million deposit on signing of the Asset Sale Agreement on 18 October 2023.
US$1.1 billion cash remains payable by Whitehaven Coal to BMA over 3 years after completion and a potential additional amount of up to US$900 million in a price-linked earnout may also be payable by Whitehaven Coal to BMA over 3 years (100% interest basis).
The price-linked earnout is subject to a cap of US$350 million each year and depends on average realised pricing exceeding agreed thresholds for each of the 3 years following completion on 2 April 20241 .
The total cash consideration for the transaction will be up to US$4.1 billion plus the final completion adjustment amount.
1 Contingent payments based on 35% revenue share to BMA, subject to average realised prices achieved by the Assets exceeding thresholds of US$159/tonne in the 12 month period 12 months post completion, US$134/tonne in the 12 month period 24 months post-completion and US$134/tonne in the 12 month period 36 months post completion.

Authorised for release by Stefanie Wilkinson, Group Company Secretary.

i hold WHC ( 'free-carried' ) and BHP
 
All the coal stocks up strongly today?
WHC, NHC, SMR, YAL, CRN

Held

Greg Canavan (fat tail investment advisory) has pinned a second buy rec to WHC for months but on 25 June he released his first NHC buy rec. Follows a small excerpt from a long essay on NHC, " .. the lowest cost thermal coal producer on the ASX"

" .. with demand and supply drivers remaining favourable in the years ahead, in my view, coal miners will continue to generate above-average returns.

Using a 20% return, on around $3 per share of tangible capital, a 12% discount rate, and assuming a dividend payout ratio of 65%, I estimate value at around $6.20 per share.

To this we must subtract (or add) net debt (or net cash).

NHC will have around 56 cents of net cash at the end of the financial year.

So that increases my estimate of intrinsic value to around $6.75.

Given the current share price of around $4.75, there is a significant margin of safety to buying here."
 
@divs4ever thanks I was unaware of ABA and MTO are coal stocks. Makes today's coal outperformance even more remarkable. I hold only WHC and waited too long to top up.
 
finicky said:
@divs4ever thanks I was unaware of ABA and MTO are coal stocks. Makes today's coal outperformance even more remarkable. I hold only WHC and waited too long to top up.
Click to expand...
no they are not ( coal stocks ) but my coal stocks ( except TER ) are in delightfully nice profit even before today

for me except for TER the coal train has g-o-n-e

no chance of me topping up on WHC anything above $1.50 , i have had two nice bites below that , i guess i am spoilt that way
 
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