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Weekly and daily forex analysis

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WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Good evening,

in this week we saw a confirmation of the interest rates in New Zealand and Japan. In this country we also had the confirmation of the monetary policy to achieve the inflation target of 2%.
Yesterday we saw a strong movement of the british pound as a result of the good GDP data of the UK that avoided the danger of a recession.
The next week will be particularly important because we will see the usual monthly market mover Non Farm Payrolls (the most important in Forex) and also two interest rate decisions in the U.S. and Europe (perhaps with a possible downside surprise!).
As every Friday we look these, and other, macroeconomic data in my usual weekly video, along with the most interesting trading opportunities for the new market opening.

I wish you a nice week-end!
Greetings
Maurizio Orsini

 
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SELL IN MAY?

Good evening,

we are about to enter the first week of May and it will surely be important in view of the macroeconomic data that will come from Europe and the United States, as mentioned in my weekly video last Friday. As a matter of fact today we had the Consumer Price Index in Germany and the individual consumption in the U.S., both lower than expected.
Also tomorrow we will have from Germany the change in employment, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone, the Canadian GDP and the consumer confidence in the U.S.
Stock indexes were positive and will be interesting to see what could be the reaction in the levels of resistance ("sell in May and go away"?).

ANALYSIS
Copper: we are in a bearish phase, both in the short to medium-term. After an upward technical correction, we saw last Friday a false break of the resistance $ 3.23 and now a new test of it. Right in this level, we can find one of my trading signals to resume the bearish movement with a first target area on $ 3.08 .


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
TOMORROW US INTEREST RATE

Good evening,

stock exchanges were weak in a day with several macroeconomic indicators. The change in employment in Germany was higher than expected; from the euro zone we had a better inflation data but also a new record in unemployment to 12.1% (although in line with analysts' expectations). Canada's GDP was higher than expected (+1,7%), as well as the U.S. consumer confidence.
Tomorrow will begin the first of three days of high volatility with the U.S. manufacturing index and the Fed rate decision.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the weakness of the dollar continues to affect this currency pair that is getting closer to 96.40 support area in which I will try to look for one of my Long trading signals to enter the possible upward move with a target area at 100. In case of bearish breakout, of course, my view would change into short and I would follow the new downward trend.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
WAITING FOR MR.DRAGHI

Good evening,

today's session was characterized by a lack of liquidity due to the closure of the major world stock markets (Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Brazil, Russia, Singapore, Hong Kong).
From a macroeconomic point of view we had from the United States the ISM Manufacturing index (respecting analysts’consensus) and especially the interest rate decision of the Fed with the confirmation of the previous level of 0.25%.
Great expectations for tomorrow with the meeting of the ECB (there will be this rate cut or not?) and for the press conference by Mario Draghi that, as always, will cause high volatility in the movement of the euro.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: this pair is consolidating in these days just above the support 1.2050, with a series of internal candles, whose breakout could generate a downward move to the next key area 1.1940.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
Good evening,

the most important market mover today is certainly the interest rate decision of the ECB that, encouraged by the last negative fundamental data, finally confirmed the reduction of the rate of 25 basis points to 0.50%. The equity markets were "waiting" the ECB meeting and then turned into positive.
Mario Draghi, in his press conference, stressed that the expansionary monetary policy will continue until it is needed, even opening up the possibility of negative interest rates on deposits in euro (generating a strong fall in the same currency).
Be careful, because the volatility of this week is not over but, on the contrary, it will increase tomorrow with the most important monthly market mover of Forex which is the Non Farm Payrolls, from the United States along with the unemployment data, beware your open positions in USD!

ANALYSIS
Aud/Yen: the medium-term uptrend continues its downward correction and is now approaching the support area 99.70/99.50. A bullish setup of my trading system at this level could lead to a long position trade with target on 105. On the contrary, the breaking of the support may take the pair to the next key level 97.30.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hello traders,

the week is ending confirming the high volatility, characterized by two important interest rate decisions and by the U.S. NFPR (labor market data) that have generated significant movements in the currency market.
Also the next week we will have two rate decisions (in Australia and UK) but we should not see concrete changes in monetary policy.
Equity markets remain at historical levels (with the "risk-on" that is still present despite the statistically month of May famous for profit taking) providing potential profit opportunities in the event of a trend reversal with short trading signals.

I just realized my usual weekly analysis to see the macro situation and some of the most interesting trading/investment opportunities for the next week, in order to confirm the good start of the month that I and the "Forex Friends" are having!

Have a great weekend and see you next Monday.
Maurizio Orsini
P.S: I apologize for the change in the sound but I prefered to change the microphone and close the webcam!

 
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TOMORROW AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATE

Good evening,

after the big volatility of the recent days, we start a week with macroeconomic data probably less impressive: this morning we had the data on retail sales in the euro zone (at -0.1% as expected), while tomorrow we will have the interest rate decision in Australia (expected at 3%).
The major stock indexes closed the session with weakness highlighting a technical correction after the rising of the previous week.

ANALYSIS
S&P: the american index confirms the upward momentum (especially after the good data on US unemployment) and broke up the 1600 points historic highs! The correct analysis, now, is to evaluate the confirmation of this breakout in order not to run into false movements: a pullback of the price to test the former resistance, now support, with a long trading signal of my method would be very interesting for a purchase entry in CFD.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
AUSTRALIA 2,75%

Good evening,

equity markets were influenced by U.S. stock exchanges strength and resume today the upward movement of last week confirming, for example with the German DAX, the breakout of important resistance levels.
The most important macroeconomic data of the day was certanly the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (from 3% to 2.75%) to support an economy that is not in crisis, but it is beginning to show a fundamental warning and it's always affected by the slowdown in China. Tomorrow in the night (European time) we will have from Oceania the unemployment rate in New Zealand and, a few hours later, the Chinese inflation.

ANALYSIS
GAS: the weakness of this cfd continues getting closer to the support area $3.86 (last level before my take profit at $ 3.70!). In case of a strong bullish reverse signal in this key area I could close my position earlier, with a very good result, and evaluate a purchase countertrend entry with a very short-term target in $4.05 level.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
TOMORROW BANK OF ENGLAND'S MEETING

Good evening,

stock indices basically closed another positive session today, in the absence of particularly important market movers, confirming the "risk on" of this period.
In a few hours we will have the inflation data from China but before the unemployment rate in New Zealand. From this country we also had today the communication by the central bank governor, Graeme Wheeler, about a direct intervention just made in the currency market to reduce the appreciation of the NZD (and it might not be the last Bank direct intervention for this purpose!). Sales pressures also continue for the Australian dollar with several analysts who are expecting other possible interest rate cuts, as well as yesterday, even reaching 2% by the end of the year (probably with a cut of 25 basis points up to next June!).
Tomorrow, in addition to the ECB monthly report, we will also pay special attention to UK with the decision on interest rates and quantitative easing from the Bank of England (pay attention to your opened positions in pounds!).

ANALYSIS
US Oil WTI: the problems between Syria and Israel (from a fundamental point of view) and the interesting situation in the monthly chart (in a technical point of view) push up the price of the crude oil which still remains above the EMA21 and within a short term uptrend. I look forward to see a technical pullback in the intermediate support at $95.50 to return in the trend upward with first target at $97.50 and then $99.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
NO CHANGE IN UK

Good evening,

today we have seen positive data from Oceania with the unemployment rates lower than expected in New Zealand (6.2%) and Australia (5.5%). From China we had an inflation higher than expected (2.4% vs. 2.1% previously).
As mentioned yesterday, we saw a high volatility in the pound with the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rates and the asset purchase unchanged (respectively at 0.50% and £375 billion per month) and we will see, with the Minute to be published in a couple of weeks, which has been the specific view of the BoE's members.
Stock markets closed a flat session without high volatility (with a worste performance for Milan and Paris).
Tomorrow we will analyze the Canadian labor market data.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Cad: we are in a medium-term bullish movement, but in a short term downward trend and close to a very important static and dynamic support level. As a matter of fact, the breakout of the parity level could accelerate the fall of the price to the next support at 0.9930 firstly and 0.9830 later. So beware of a possible bearish break to evaluate a sale entry but always in the presence of one of my trading signals, to avoid false breakouts!


Today I prepared a short video for those traders who would like to change their point of view in Forex trading, leaving a stressful operating system by a more relaxed and clear way of trading. Enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvsklOnQEhg

See you tomorrow with my weekly outlook!
Maurizio Orsini
 
Maurizio,

How you going dude; certainly a lot going on in the market these day's as usual. been flicking through your analysis from time to time, like every analysis they come with the good and bad. So anyway I was wondering do you have any recommendations for the start of Monday's trading, FX. If you think there might be some big mover's on this day I would to hear your thought's.

All the best Maurizio, Keep up the good work.

Happy Trading!

Bailx
 
Hi! I will analyze later the weekly situation to be prepared for next opening...I see a good move of the Usd so..nice opportinities of purchase (expecially UsdYen...)
See you, Maurizio

 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hi traders,

this week is ending with the confirmation of the strength of the equity markets that fail to have an important corrective movement, on the contrary, they are rising up to new highs.
We had two interest rate decisions with the confirmation of 0.50% in England and the cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at 2.75% (which might not be the last of 2013).
A direct intervention in the currency market was realized by the central bank of New Zealand showing how the two countries of Oceania are very focused on stimulus measures to support its economy and the trade balance.
The week, in Forex market, closes with a strong purchase of U.S. dollar and a return of the weakness for the yen that could generate (even in the same direct exchange) excellent trading opportunities.
Next week we won't have interest rate decisions, but a series of market movers that will affect different currencies. Let's see which they are, togheter with some interesting situations of chart analysis, in my usual weekly video!

Have a great weekend and see you next Monday.
Maurizio Orsini

 
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EUROFIN

Good night,

today will begin the Eurofin summit in Brussels that will analyze the "not so positive"fundamentals data of the euro area as well as the particular situation of the euro, especially after the words of Mario Draghi who opened to negative rates deposits.
Also from Eurozone we will have tomorrow several important data as the inflation in Germany, theproduction industrial in the euro zone and the ZEW sentiment on the German economy.
The only major market mover today was the U.S. Retail Sales which was better than expected and let the stock markets closed a session with slight losses.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the short-term laterality was broken up last Thursday (and confirmed the following day). The price action is showing a strengthening of the rising trend, so I'll try to find one of my trading signals in the previous key level 100 to enter this bullish move with first target on area 103.50.


Greetings.
Maurizio
 
MARKET MOVERS FROM EUROPE

Good night,

today we had three important market movers from Europe, the inflation in Germany (-0.5% in April and in line with expectations), the German ZEW (36.4 slightly above the previous data, but lower than market's expectations) and the industrial production in the euro area (equivalent to 1% and much higher than expected).
Tomorrow from Europe we will have the GDP data in Germany and the euro area and from England the inflation report and the jobless claims.
We had a new positive session on financial markets, which continue their upward trend of the last period, while in Forex market we had a strength for dollar and euro and weakness for the commodity currencies.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the price seems to confirm the bearish violation of the medium-term laterality with the actual candle which tested again the previous resistance level at 1.30 showing a higher pressure on sale. The break out of 1.2930 area could generate a downward acceleration up to 200 pips (in line with the confirmation of the bullish breakout of the Dollar Index occurred today).


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
FRANCE IN RECESSION

Good night,

France slips "technically" into recession reporting a first quarter GDP contracted by 0.2%. We had a negative data from Germany, too with a modest growth in the first quarter, below market expectations, that still succeeds in avoiding recession being slightly in positive territory (+0.1%). Good news don't even come from Europe where the GDP fell by 0.2%, resulting, also in this case, below expectations.
From England we had an improvement in jobless claims and the positive outlook of the BoE about the british growth.
Tomorrow we will have the GDP in Japan and the inflation data in Europe and the United States.

ANALYSIS
Gold: it finally recovers the short direction breaking the $1410 support. Now I wait for a technical correction to retest the level just broken, looking for one of my trading signals (required to confirm the bearish breakout) to go on sale with a first target on area $1320.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
I wait for you in www.mauriforex.com (page Forex Friends after logging in) to try the free 30-days trial of my daily videos of trading signals and training (without providing any payment information!). You can watch the introducing video here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvsklOnQEhg .
 
JAPAN IN EXPANSION

Good night,

today we have to highlight the excellent recovery of Japan (with a GDP above expectations) that begins to benefit the particularly accommodative policy of prime minister Mr. Shinzo Abe.
We also had the inflation rate in Europe (confirmed at 1% as expected) and in the United States (at 1,1% lower than forecasts). Stock markets contrasted.
Tomorrow the most important market mover will be the inflation rate in Canada estimated slightly lower than the previous one.

ANALYSIS
Gas Natural: after touching the resistance level $4.08 (during the retrieve phase) the price seems to resume the short term bearish movement that, in case of breakout of the support $3.85, might go directly to the static and dynamic area $ 3.65. We can evaluate a short entry, perhaps taking advantage of a brief intraday bullish move to improve the risk-reward ratio of the trade.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Good night,

this week confirmed the "risk appetite" that the market is showing in this month of May, denying all the bearish statistics presented in late April!
The US stock markets (but also the German Dax) highlight new highs and do not suggest, for now, a force to correct downward.
The European negative fundamentals we had this week (GDP, German growth, technical recession in France) have contributed to the weakening of the euro especially against the dollar that, on the contrary (and temporary uncorrelated with the market "risk-on"), confirms its moment of strength.
The Oceanic currencies are stll weak, due to the devaluation pressures of their central banks, as well as commodities (such as Gold) due to a general decline in global demand.
Next week we will have the interest rate decision in Japan, among the most important market movers. Let's see them all, together with the most interesting trading opportunities, in my usual weekly video analysis.

Best wishes and happy weekend.
Maurizio Orsini

 
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TOMORROW RBA'S MINUTE

Good night,

the major stock markets closed slightly positive today and with low volatility in the absence of special relevance market movers.
Tomorrow we will have from Oceania the Australian central bank Minute (very interesting to clarify the next monetary policy measures of the RBA) and the 2-yaers inflation expectations by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. From England we will know the inflation rate in the previous month.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Yen: we are in a phase of accumulation of very short period with the price reaching the support area 131 (and the EMA21). The main trend remains bullish so I would be looking, in the level just mentioned, for one of my Long trading signals to resume a possible upward movement that could have as a first target the area 134.20 (maybe "helped" by the macro news that will arrive from Japan next Wednesday!).


Greetings.
Maurizio
 
INTEREST RATE IN JAPAN

Good night,

the Australian central bank announced this morning the Minute of the last interest rate decision by pointing out that reduction was due to the need to support investment of local enterprises, especially in the mining sector. The inflation target for the next two years provided by the New Zealand central bank remains almost unchanged (2.06%) while we had a decrease in the UK inflation rate of april at 2.4% below the expectations of analysts.
Tomorrow will be a day full of important market movers with the interest rate decision (and monetary policy statement) in Japan, the Minute in UK and the USA and the retail sales data in the UK and Canada.

ANALYSIS
US Oil: the short-term bullish trend (above EMA21) approaches an important static and dynamic resistance area at $97.50/98. In this level we could consider one of my bearish trading signals (although countertrend) entering a possible bearish movement with a target at $89, which corresponds to the bottom of the long term triangle evident in the chart.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
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