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Weekly and daily forex analysis

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TOMORROW AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATE

Good evening,

last Friday US government didn't find any agreement and the started the $ 85 billion of government spending cuts. This situation (in part), along with the uncertainty of the Italian political situation, influenced the stock markets which closed weakly. Producer prices in the euro area has been higher-than-expected today (+0.6%).
Tomorrow we will have the first of several interest rate decisions, with the RBA that should keep the price of money at 3% unchanged.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Usd: the possible confirmation of the interest rate at 3% could push up the Australian and facilitate the retracement (even temporarily) of this pair to the resistance area 1.0250. At this level, it would be interesting to look for a sell signal of my trading plan to enter the short-term bearish move with target in 1.0050.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
TOMORROW BANK OF CANADA

Good evening,

as expected the australian central bank left the rate unchanged at 3%, generating an initial upward trend of its currency. From Europe we had the data on Retail Sales which has been better than expected.
Also from the euro zone, tomorrow, we will have the Gross Domestic Product, as well as from Australia. We will also wait for the interest rate decision in Canada, expected unchanged at 1%.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after the second day of technical correction, this pair seems to lose its strength and the confirmed break down of the 1.30 level could lead the most important pair firstly to the support area 1.2850 and then 1.27. It's an Interesting situation to return in the short term bearish movement.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
P.S: If you want you can try, completely for free (and without providing any payment information), my daily video service Forex Friends of trading signals and training! Just sign up to my site and request a free 1-month trial (http://www.mauriforex.com/en/forex-friends/) to learn how to work/invest in a serious and professional way in the foreign exchange and commodity market.
For more information: info@mauriforex.com
 
DAX ON THE TOP

Good evening,

today's session closed in a contrasted way for the stock market after the highs reached yesterday by the U.S. indices and the japanese one. The data of Australian GDP was in line with analysts' expectations (+ 0.6%) as well as the one in the euro zone (- 0,6%).
As expected the Canadian interest rate has been confirmed by governor Mark Carney at 1% .
Tomorrow we could have a strong volatility with the 3 decisions of interest rates in Japan, Europe and UK with a consensus of analysts for the maintenance of the current levels.

ANALYSIS
German DAX: the German index broke upwards 7.870 points which was the top level of the 2-months sideways trend. Considering the short-term bullish movement I will be looking for the price to draw a long set up, after a possible technical correction in the level just violated.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
TOMORROW NON FARM PAYROLLS

Good evening,

all as expected for the rate decisions! The Bank of Japan left interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and the same for the central banks of UK and Europe (respectively 0.50% and 0.75%) with the first one that also confirmed the plan of asset purchase. In his press conference, Mr. Mario Draghi underlined his expectation for a contraction of GDP growth in the euro area, noting that there should be a gradual recovery in the latter part of the year. In this regard also confirmed a continuation of accommodative monetary policy in order to encourage the re-start of the economic activity.
Tomorrow we will have the main market mover of the Forex market, Non Farm Payrolls, as well as the unemployment rates in U.S.A. and Canada so... beware the volatility!

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: it looks like we are having, for the Yen, a new situation of weakness (waiting for the new Governor of the BoJ) and several currency pairs are getting close to resistance levels. The pair Usd/Yen is just retesting 94.60 area where a breakout (confirmed at the moment) could modify the short term outlook from "Sell" to "Buy" with the search for trading purchase signals.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Goodnight,
we are at the end of a week marked by the confirmation of the major central banks's actual monetary policy and by achieving important levels for some of the major stock indexes.
As always we see the macroeconomic and graphic situation in my usual weekly analysis.

Have a nice weekend everybody!
Maurizio Orsini

 
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TOMORROW NEW ZELAND INTEREST RATE

Good evening,

the new week begins with weak financial markets and in the absence of strong relevance market movers on the economic calendar (except for parliamentary confirmation of the new governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Kuroda, in office since March 19).
The euro remained weak against the major currencies as well as the U.S. dollar, in a slight correction after the strong move of the last Friday, and the commodities.

ANALYSIS
GAS: the medium-term bearish trendline has been broken and the price is right now in the important level $ 3.64. The upward breakout would be interesting to look for a Long opportunity with a first possible target on the resistance area $ 3.80/3.90.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
DAY TRADING

Good evening,

today the stock markets closed a low volatile session slightly around the values of yesterday, with a better performance for the commodities (especially the precious metals).
The data of the german Consumer Price Index has been in line with analysts' expectations, while the European Central Bank today confirmed that its currency is in line with the historical average and with the fundamentals of the euro zone.
Tomorrow, besides the interest rate decision in New Zealand, we will also have the data on retail sales in the U.S. (In this regard I really apologize for the mistake of last night: the strange belief that I was in Tuesday led me to highlight the NZD interest news for today while, on the contrary, it will be released tomorrow Wednesday March 13...I apologize again for the imprecision).

ANALYSIS
Copper: the triangle of possible bearish continuation has been broken but with a strong upward move and the price is now above the static and dynamic area $ 3,53. We are still below the moving average, but a slight correction on the key level, with a Long trading signal, might also be considered for a possible return to the $ 3.60 area.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
TOMORROW SWISS INTEREST RATE

Good evening,

the today we had a negative session for the stock markets with higher losses for Milan, Tokyo and London. The data on retail sales in the U.S. was much higher than expected (1.1% against 0,5%) generating strength in the USD.
Another interest rate decision will be taken tomorrow by the Swiss National Bank, together with other important data coming from the U.S. (the Production Price Index) and from Australia (about the labor market).

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: second day of retracement that pushed the price on the support area 95.80. The closing above level 96 and expecially the breakout of today’s top could resume the uptrend, also in line with the expectations of devaluation pursued by the Bank of Japan.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
EUR/AUD DAILY as of Thursday, 14 March, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 13/03/13, there are 2 white candles versus 8 black candles with a net of 6 black candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 13/03/13, there are 19 white candles versus 31 black candles with a net of 12 black candles.
Three Daily black candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a Gann Swing or Pullback that is usually a bearish pattern
Euro Dollar / Australian Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1.26 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 36.79 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 35.13 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -0.01, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 6.26. This value is in the oversold territory.
 

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NO CHANGE FOR CHF

Good evening,

today's session showed a positive day for the stock market and in particular for Milan, Madrid and Frankfurt.
From the australian labor market we had good news with a sharp increase in the number of employed, together with a stability in the unemployment rate.
From Switzerland, the central bank has confirmed the level of interest rates as well as the floor of 1.20 in the exchange rate against the euro.
From the United States we had the Production Price Index which showed an increase compared to the previous one, but, however, lower than analysts' expectations.
Tomorrow we will expect the Consumer Price Index in Europe and in the United States.

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: we are always in a clear medium-short period downward trend, in a technical correction phase that is approaching the price to the resistance area 1.5150. This level could be an interesting point where to search a possible short set up with a target on the weekly support area 1.44.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALISIS

Good evening,

the positive trend of the stock indices continues with a weakness of the dollar in last part of the week.
The next week we will have the interest rate decision in the United States. However, you can find all the main market movers and trading opportunities in my usual weekly video.

Have a nice weekend everybody.
Maurizio Orsini

 
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CYPRUS SCARES THE MARKET

Good evening,

definitely the theme of the day has been the delicate situation in Cyprus which influenced all equity markets as well as the great weakness of the euro, especially at yesterday markets open. The hypothesis of the increasing taxation on Cypriots deposit accounts, as a conditio sine qua non for the 10 billion euros aid, could create panic among depositors, serious problems in the banking system and the resume of concerns about the stability of the Euro area after a few months of momentary "silence" over the problem. Thus it will be more interesting to know, tomorrow, the German ZEW index about the economic sentiment, in addition to the Minute of the Australian central bank and to the Consumer Prices Index in the UK.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: as all pairs with the euro, it began the new week with a strong bearish gap that makes the chart less easy to understand from a technical point of view. The session, however, closed with a rebound to the resistance area 1.2950 (bottom side of the previous channel) where, in line with a short-term downtrend, we could consider a bearish entry, in case of clear short trading signal, with target at 1.27 support area.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
TOMORROW US INTEREST RATE

Good evening,

the two main macro data from Europe were pretty much in line with expectations, with the German Zew index equal to 48.1 (against 48.2 expected) and the Price Consumer Index in the UK at 2.8% (compared to 2.7% expected).
Today there was the expected vote by the Cypriot Parliament on European aid with the rejection of the bank deposit tax.
The stock markets had a session rather weak and with negative movements.
During today we also saw the step down of the governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa.
Tomorrow will be an important day because we will have, as well as the Minute of the BoE and the GDP of New Zealand, the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (with Mr. Bernanke's press conference).

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: the Cable is proceeding in a very short term lateral move characterized by two inside candles. The break-down of 1.5060 level could facilitate the down move to the next support area 1.49 as first target.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
EUR/USD DAILY as of Wednesday, 20 March, 2013
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for Euro Dollar / US Dollar. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4.
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a violation of the AlphOmega trendline at 1. This could mean a reversal of the trend to bearish. This trendline is for normal (21%) amplitude, it would be wise to test other amplitudes. To see the trendline, insert the indicator AlphOmega Trendline and select your amplitude/sensitivity.
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3
Euro Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1.31 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.51 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 25.75 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -0.02, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 55.65. This value is in the neutral territory.
 

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CYPRUS CALLS RUSSIA

Good evening,

the decision of the Cyprus Parliament not to approve the super tax on bank deposits does not seem to have caused damage to the stock and currency market, on the other hand the EU announced that now it’s up to Cyprus (which is still dealing with Russia) to find another solution to the problem. Equity markets had a positive session especially for Milan and Paris.
The main market mover today was definitely the decision of U.S. rates that, as expected, has not been changed compared to the previous 0.25%. The governor Bernanke, in his press conference, confirmed the current bond purchase plan, a gradual economic growth and low interest rates until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Aud: the cross reacted in the 1.2420 support area highlighting a temporary recovery in the strength of the euro. The trend is still bearish in the short term so the idea is to look for a short signal after a possible correction on levels 1.2520 / 1.2550.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

P.S: If you want you can try, completely free (and without providing any payment information), my daily video service Forex Friends of trading signals and training! Just sign up to my site and request a free 1-month trial (http://www.mauriforex.com/en/forex-friends/) to learn how to work/invest in a serious and professional way in the foreign exchange and commodity market.
For more information: info@mauriforex.com
 
BOJ:KURODA

Good evening,

equity markets had a weak session (especially Paris and Frankfurt) waiting for the solution of the Cypriot issue.
In the absence of very important market movers, I point out the data on retail sales in the UK (better than expected) and the jobless claims in the United States (lower than expected).
After the official appointment, today was held the first speech of the new governor of the Boj Mr.Kuroda. He said that his main target is to beat deflation and he will do it without relying on a weak Yen and without buying govm.bonds but considering the purchase of other asset, including real estate (REITS).
Tomorrow the only important market mover will be the German IFO index on economic confidence.

ANALYSIS
Silver: we are in the upper level of the short period sideway channel and, considering the medium term down move (we’re still below the EMA21) we could evaluate short signals on level 29.40$ with a first target on the support area $28.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hi everybody,

after the confirmation of the U.S. interest rates and the first speech of the new Bank of Japan's Governor, we prepare to enter the last week of March with interesting trading situations to evaluate.
Enjoy my weekly video and have a nice week-end!

Greetings, Maurizio.
P.S: you can still request for free the 30 days training videos on my web page www.mauriforex.com entering the page Forex Friends, if you didn' do it yet!

 
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WEAK EURO

Good evening,

last night was finally reached an agreement between the Troika and the Cypriot Government! This one will "hit" all bank accounts with over 100.000euro (which will suffer important losses) protecting the smaller depositors (but not the russians!) and proceeding to the close of the second largest bank, Laiki Bank. Troika will give next May the € 10 billion needed to save the island.
Financial markets reacted positively to the agreement but later changed their move and closed negative. The same happened with the euro, that strengthened in the first part of the session (after the negative opening of yesterday) and got weaker in the second part.
Tomorrow we will expect two important major market movers from the USA: the durable goods order and the consumer confidence.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after Cyprus news there was an attempt to recover but the price reacts strongly on the level 1,3050 falling below 1.2850. We are still within a short period laterality but the break-down of its bottom could push this pair to the next area of support 1.27.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
SUPER NZD

Good evening,

equity markets rebounded today without obtaining a positive result for all indices: the "Cyprus model" led operators to prefer prudence towards those “risky countries”.
The two main data expected today were contrasted, with the durable goods order at 5,7% and the consumer confidence worst than expected.
Tomorrow we will have the British GDP and the Consumer Prices Index in Canada.

ANALYSIS
Nzd/Usd: the long and short term trend is bullish with the strength of New Zealand dollar that could push the pair up to area 0.85. The goal is to enter this movement by taking advantage of a possible correction on the support level 0.8350.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
THE EURO BREAKS THE SUPPORTS

Good evening,

between the most important market movers today we had the British GDP (-0.3% as expected) and the Canadian Consumer Price Index (+1.2% higher than expected).
Equity markets got weaker as at the beginning of this week, with a worst performance for Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris.
Tomorrow we will expect from Germany the unemployment rate and from Canada and United States gross domestic product.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: it finally broke the short-term laterality and the trend takes the bearish medium term direction. In the level just broken (area 1.28) we may consider a possible retracement, with a trading signal, to enter the short movement.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
 
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