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Weekly and daily forex analysis

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YEN SELL OFF

Good evening,

stock market seems to feel the spirit of Christmas and closed with indecision, also waiting for news about the U.S. Fiscal Cliff.
Yesterday, as I announced in my weekly video last Friday, the Liberal Democrat Shinzo Abe won japanese election confirming its expansionary monetary policy ideas. This has led to a strong sell-off in the Yen and caused for all major pairs, with which it is compared, a downgap opening: next important appointment is for Thursday, with the interest rate decision by the BoJ to understand how Mr.Abe’s idea will be developed.
Tomorrow, from Australia, we expect the Minute of the RBA to check its position after the rate cut that just took place.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Nzd: we had another day of moderate rise with this cross that is now on the intermediate resistance area of 1.5630 where we might find tomorrow a possible short setup. The target of an eventual return of the downmove is the support area 1.5470.


See you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
 
MARKETS HAVE A POSITIVE OUTLOOK

Goodevening,

another positive day for equity markets influenced by the last bullish performance of Wall Street (which discounted the probable agreement about Fiscal Cliff within this month) and let Euro run over resistences.
The RBA’s Minute has raised, today, the possibility of an extension of the actual expansionary policy, with other possible interest rate cuts during 2013.
Good news for the Spanish government bonds sale (fully placed and with a lower interest!) which has strengthened not only the Ibex of Madrid, but the Euro currency too.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Cad: the Euro bullish movement continues and, against the Canadian Dollar, reached the important resistance area of 1.3050. In this level I will wait for a possible Sell setup of trend reversal, considering as a first target the area 1.2750. Otherwise, in case of break up (confirmed) I will try to get into a possible upmove to the new resistance level at 1.3240.


Have a nice trading everyone!
Arrivederci, Maurizio
 
YEN: WAITING FOR BANK OF JAPAN

Good evening,

also this day shows us euphoria in european financial markets which are discounting the possible U.S. agreement between Republicans and Democrats. The euro continues its “flight” in the first part of the trading session (against the dollar has already reached the top level of May 2012) pushed up not only by a weak Usd, after Fed QE4, but also by the positive news of this morning about IFO data in Germany (better than expected).
In the Minute of this morning, the governor of the Bank of England, Mr.Miles, said that the decision (in December 5) against the adding of asset purchase has been voted by eight of the nine members of the Council and that the only vote against has been his one (moved by his conviction to create a greater incentive for production without generating a price increase).
Tomorrow let’s be careful, for those who have positions in yen, to the BoJ rate decision and the further indication about a possible new quantitative easing.

ANALYSIS

US Oil: the weakness of USD is strengthening WTI oil that comes close to the top of short/medium term laterality. In the resistance level $ 89.50 / $ 90 (if it won't be broken!) I'll try to look for a short setup of my trading system to enter into a possible bearish movement with a first target in area $ 85.


Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
 
NEW QE IN JAPAN

Good evening,

this morning the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, however, announcing an increase in the asset purchase of about 10 trillion yen and a revision of inflation target up to next january.
Officially ended in Greece Buyback operation with the repurchase by the government of the amount of its debt of 32 billion euro.
Better than expected the data of U.S. production (+3,1%) meanwhile politicians continue to work in order to reach to the important deal of these days!
The week will close tomorrow with the macro data on GDP in Britain and Canada.

ANALYSIS

Copper: last tuesday I sell this commodity according to a bearish daily set upet of my trading plan. Yesterday I moved my stop loss to a zero risk level (my entry level) and a few hours ago closed the position with a good profit (also considering the initial r/r relation!). This is price action daily with no indicators but only the price!


Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
 
Interesting week

Took full advantage of the weaker JPY, earlier this week given the recent elections and the stronger EUR. I had a lot of success trading this pair as the JPY found resistance. Looking forward to today's. After recent announcements. I expect the EUR to struggle to find support. I can only assume that the JPY can only get stronger from here. As Abe will push the Japanese economy back on track.

Quote:

A day after the election, Abe called on the BOJ to boost its monetary stimulus at a two-day meeting that ends on Thursday and pressed it to adopt a 2 percent inflation target, double its current price goal, as soon as next month.
The report came a day after the Bank of Japan delivered its third shot of monetary stimulus in four months, as it faces growing pressure from incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for bolder action to beat deflation.

And of course as common Analysis will assume that other JPY currency pairs will follow suit.

 
Accordantly I may well be wrong I can't expect Abe to solve Japan's Inflation over night, The JPY market channels as we speak. A very UN decisive market is the JPY . The EUR Pushing strongly of their biggest asset Germany.
Quote: higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Understanding that the JPY is also losing on the industry front. I know I got out on the wrong side of bed this morning, with my eyes all twined back, believing that I ruled the world. But I still concur the The JPY will Bounce back into it's own in the near future ATM.

EUR/USD and Yen Crosses at Extreme Risk of Retracement.

"The share market has dropped sharply into negative territory after the latest blow to hopes of a deal in the United States to avoid the fiscal cliff."

 
WEEKLY ANALYSIS

Good morning,

we are at the end of another week, the last before Christmas, with the Fiscal Cliff problem still unsolved (although we have only a few days to go!). We have seen several up and down movements that a “normal” situation of the market, probably, wouldn’t have generated. Now we’ll have a few holidays with short trading time, closing sessions
and less liquidity in the market in the hope that the New Year could star with greater certainty especially from a technical point of view.
I prepared, as usual, my weekly analysis for a quick review of the situation.

ANALYSIS

Aud/Nzd: after the bullish rally we could see a technical pullback from the 1.2670 resistance area where I will try to look for short trading set up. Of course, in case of a continuation of the rise I will search for a pull back on that level to find an entry point for the bullish movement.


Eur/Usd: the short-term movement is bullish, so we can search a long set up after the technical pullback in area 1,3120 / 1,3170.


Nzd/Usd: the strong rise of last week has been canceled by the reduction of the current one. The short term trend is bearish, so we will look for a sell signal on the retracement in area 0,83 .


Oil WTI: the resistance area at $90 seems to produce its effect and the price might be ready for a new fall that would target the area of 85.50. A possible, "last", level to resume the bearish movement might be a momentary retest of $89.30 area.


I wish you a happy Holy Christmas and see you with my daily analysis next Wednesday 26 December.
Happy Christmas!
Maurizio
 
Good evening,

Christmas time continues with the closure of the main European stock exchanges and the wait for the decision on Fiscal Cliff. In this regard, President Obama will return tonight from Hawaii to be ready for the last two available days in which, in my opinion, a temporary agreement will be found.
Today we also had the press conference of the new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who announced a bold monetary policy and a flexible fiscal policy.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Aud: another bullish day for Euro that approximates this cross to 1.28 area where we could see a correction of the entire bullish movement. If this happens, a short trading set up would have as a first target the 1.2580 price level. Otherwise a bullish break could produce a continuation of the rise to the new resistance area at 1.30


Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
 
WAITING FOR A SOLUTION

Good evening,

we are in the last hours to solve the Fiscal Cliff problem with financial markets still on hold.
Today we had two important US macro datas: the jobless claim and the consumer confidence (lower than expected).
The Dollar Index has been stronger compared to yesterday; Gold and Silver are still uncertain even considering the positive session.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the most important currency pair shows another bullish session back to the 1.33 resistance area where it would be interesting to look for a bearish signal (always being careful to what happens in the U.S.)


Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
 
WEEKLY ANALYSIS

Good morning,

we are in the last week of this 2012 which brought good job results and important macroeconomic news. We are very close to a solution (positive or negative) for Fiscal Cliff and this, as well as affecting the risk aversion, will certainly make it less difficult for us to analyze and trade.
I leave you with my usual weekly outlook and I wish all of you a wonderful beginning of the new year, full of peace and serenity for your families!

ANALYSIS

Aud/Usd: this currency pair is in a bearish short period trend. A correction in 1.04 area would be interesting to find a short set up with first target on 1.0280 level.


Eur/Usd: the level 1.3120 could be, in case of downward correction, a good point where searching for a long signal with target on area 1.33.


Nzd/Usd: very similar to the Aussie in his short short-term trend. A continuation of the pullback in the 0.8270 area would be a good opportunity to look for a bearish entry. The area 0,81 is still very important for a possible long set up in order to resume the bullish medium / long term trend.


Oil: not very related to Usd in these days, it’s located in a bullish short period phase. A long set up of my trading plan in support area $ 90 might get me back into a buying position.


See you Wednesday January 2, happy New Year!
Maurizio
 
TIME OUT FOR FISCAL CLIFF

Good evening,

the 2013 begins with the news of the final approval, by the U.S. Congress, of the Cliff deal. Just a few hours before the end of the year, it has been possible to limit the tax increase to those people with an income of more than 400-450 thousand Dollars annually. In the same deal it has been postponed the decision on spending cuts and confirmed that one about unemployment benefits.
The reaction of the stock market has been, as expected, strongly positive with many buy orders of stocks and euros (in the first part of the session) as well as a selloff of conservative currencies (with a strongest USD in the second part of the day).
Tomorrow we will have the Fed analysis with the usual Minute of FOMC meeting.

ANALYSIS

Gold: the strong initial dollar sell off has put wings to the metals which broke resistance levels. Gold rises above the important static and dynamic level of $1680 where I’ll look for a pullback in order to find a possible Long set up and return in the long-term uptrend.


See you tomorrow,
Maurizio
 
TOMORROW NFPR

Good evening,

the "fiscal cliff" effect, which yesterday brought up the stock market, had a reduction in today's session not only for technical profit-takings but also in consequence of IMF spokesman statement according to which Us measures are not yet sufficient to ensure U.S.long term health. Thus Moody's also highlighted the risk of a down rating if there won’t be effective policies to contain the deficit and public debt.
In Europe, german unemployment remained stable at around 7% (with an increase of unemployed lower than expected).
We just had the FOMC meeting which showed a clear disagreement between the same members of the Fed, about a continuation of QE, generating strong dollar purchases that have driven down the euro-dollar and commodities.
Tomorrow, as first Friday of the month, we’ll take careful to volatility that will be generated with the No Farm Payrolls data.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the price broke down the 1.31 level and a confirmation of the weakness of the Euro could push this pair to the next support area of 1.30. In this case it would be good to find a short set up after a technical correction to the previous level.


See you tomorrow!
Maurizio
 
WEEKLY ANALYSIS

Good evening,

the No Farm Payrolls data have generated the usual volatility of the earlier days of each month; monday we should return to the "ordinary situation"!
As every weekend, I leave you with my usual weekly analysis to be prepared for the next opening of the market.

ANALYSIS

Aud/Nzd: the Oceania cross reacted strongly on the resistance level of 1.27 with a bearish daily candle. The breaking down of the level 1.2580 could bring this pair to 1.2480 area and then to 1.24 area.


Eur/Usd: after the down break of the laterality of last week, this pair had two very bearish sessions going very close to the 1.30 support area and then reacting after NFPR. The goal is to return into the short term bearish movement (with the target on area 1.2850) after a possible pullback on the intermediate resistance 1.31.


Oil: it tried a downward correction but the strength of buyers moved the price back to 93.30 resistance area. The break of this level could push the WTI to the next important level 94.60 and then, in the medium term, to the area ​​$ 99.


Gold: the NFPR data pushed the price up to area $1650 after the re-tested on $1625. The short term trend is still bearish and only a confirmed break of the $1680 level could let us re-evaluate a purchase of the yellow metal.


Have a good weekend and see you next monday.
Maurizio
 
USD FOR SALE

Goodnight,

this week begins with few economic data, waiting for the interest rate decisions in Europe and the UK on Thursday.
Today was released the Producer Prices Index of November, in the euro zone, which was slightly decreased (but in line with expectations).
Equity markets were weak and substantially below the previous close with a bearish US dollar and a strong euro especially in the second part of the day.

ANALYSIS

Nzd/Usd: it broke the resistance level 0.8310 (top of the last Friday pin candle) and it's close to the new important area 0.8470 where (considering the weak dollar) it could arrive in 2-3 sessions. In that level I will look for a short term opportunity to sell the kiwi.


See you tomorrow!
Maurizio
 
EURO IN RESISTANCE LEVELS

Good evening,

european stock markets opened and closed this session near the previous level, and always waiting for the euro decisions of thursday.
The dollar reacts on the supports; Japanese Yen continues its technical recovery phase; Gold and Silver are still in an unclear short-term situation.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Aud: the weakness of the euro produced a short pin bar in 1,2530 key level. Now we could see a continuation of the short term down movement, after the break of the bearish flag, with first target on 1,2330 area and then 1,2170 level.


See you tomorrow!
Maurizio
 
ECB AND BOE: MARKET IS WAITING

Good evening,

the good data of industrial production in Germany (+0.2% in November) pushes up the equity markets that "see" the next ECB meeting of tomorrow in which, according to most analysts, there won't be some change in the interest rate and monetary policy.
We had a bullish session for the US dollar and weakness for Gold, Silver and Copper. Meanwhile it's continuing the bearish movement for Natural Gas.

ANALYSIS
Ngas: natural gas is on a clear downward movement of short/medium term and, right in today's session, broke down the support level at $ 3.160. The trend is obvious and linear and therefore I will wait for a possible pullback up to the broken level to find an interesting Sell opportunity Sell with first target at $ 3.050 and then $ 2.950 .


Greetings to everybody!
Maurizio
 
BCE AND BOE: NO CHANGE!

Good evening,

as expected: the Bank of England kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50% (and buying assets at 375 billion pounds) as well as the ECB which left its rate at 0.75%.
The initial jobless claims in the U.S. was higher than analysts foresaw and rose to 371k vs 365k expected.
Stock indices remained at the same level of the previous session (Italian index had a better performance) while, in the Forex market, we had a weak day for US Dollar and a strong one for commodities (especially for Gold and Silver).

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: after two days of retracement, Japanese Yen is still weak against the USD and the currency pair goes up. The break up of 88.40 area could accelerate the upward movement until the next major resistance level at 89.50 where we have the take profit of out Long position!


Greetings to everybody!
Maurizio
 
WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Good evening,

this week started with little volatility and without very important economic news however it's ending with a strong wave of risk and high yield currency purchase (after the ECB announcement on Thursday). Several currency pairs reached important price levels and you can see some interesting opportunities in my Weekly Video Outlook.
Happy weekend to everybody and see you next Monday!
Maurizio

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good evening,

today, without very important economic data, stock indices started the week positively and then got weaker in the course of the session.
Waiting for Mr.Ben Bernanke's speech, the U.S. dollar remains in the same range of previous days as well as the main commodities.

ANALYSIS
Copper: after another test of the key level $ 3.710, the price reacted with 2 bearish candles, breaking out during the session the support zone in $ 3.650. Price action shows a clear strength of the sellers that could push down the price to the area $ 3.535 firstly and $ 3.440 after.


Have a nice trading and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
 
US DOWNGRADE?

Good evening,

after the speech of Bernanke and Obama, about the confirmation of the Fed's monetary expansion and the problem of the debt limit, the markets had a negative session caused by the Fitch warning of a US downgrade.
The U.S. dollar, originally affected by Bernanke's words, reacted with all currencies (except the yen) in the second part of the session and after the good Retail Sales and PPI data.
Euro has been weak due to the publication of the German Consumer Price Index and GDP data (both lower than expected).
The upmove of precious metals continues, reaching interesting buying levels (especially Silver).

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: today I closed a good deal in profit at the beginning of the bearish technical correction. Japanese Yen still remains a weak currency with a devaluation outlook, so I still see a Long scenario and I’ll wait a possible retracement to the support area at 88.10 or, it would be better, 87 to find an interesting setup of my trading system.


Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
 
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