WDS - Woodside Energy Group

divs4ever · 2025-09-23T12:24:51+1000

finicky said:
I hold
Possible Add, Not in a Rush

+ 1

am absolutely in no rush

the only compelling driver for me , is if you belief a major armed conflict is coming ( rather than a massive trade war )

i see lots of sabre-rattling but only with a kitchen-knife ( rattling around in the scabbard )

Garpal Gumnut · 2025-09-23T12:25:22+1000

finicky said:
Yesterday Greg raised his recommended 'permanent' capital portfolio weighting for Woodside.

I hold
Possible Add, Not in a Rush
Daily chart looking indecisive yesterday and today? - small bodied candles, small high/low day range.

Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Greg Canavan

View attachment 209266

"Following the sell-off in Woodside Energy [ASX:WDS] shares over the past few weeks (down 15%) I am taking this opportunity to increase our weighting to 7%.

Global energy stocks remain out of favour. But if you value them on mid-cycle oil prices around US$80/bbl, they remain significantly undervalued.

WDS is no different. I don’t know what oil and gas prices will do in the short term. But longer term, probability favours higher prices. So on a long-term view, WDS is attractive value here.

For a good, common sense take on energy prices, I encourage you to listen to this (link to article for subscribers)

Action to take: Buy Woodside Energy [ASX:WDS] or add to your holdings. I am increasing the allocation in the Permanent Capital Portfolio to 7%. I will use today’s closing price as the buy price."

I'd agree with you @finicky . Tell him 'e's dreamin'.

gg

Antirnator · 2025-09-23T12:34:43+1000

If low $21 arrives I might add.

Held

Garpal Gumnut · 2025-09-23T13:01:24+1000

Drilling and processing oil is an expensive business as is finding the stuff in the first place. When I was in my late teenage years I had a mate who worked as a driller's offsider offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and he was earning a packet. I cannot see how the bottom line can increase for WDS with a WTI Crude price of $62.64 with Trump determined to keep his Maga supporters burning the stuff doing wheelies and whatever MAGA supporters do when they are not praying to the good lord.

I'd at the most put WDS as a hold because it is a matter of time before the POO rises again which is not to say it won't fall further first or stay in the 60's for a lot longer. The bean counters can fiddle the figures, lower the divies and plan capital raises on some temporary good news, but imo the good times are not anytime soon. @antinator is looking at $21. Divsie @divs4ever from memory was looking at $17. @finicky is holding which long term is not a bad idea as with the state the world is in he could be right and oil could rise. You need oil for wars.

gg

finicky · 2025-09-23T13:18:55+1000

Garpal Gumnut said:
I cannot see how the bottom line can increase for WDS with a WTI Crude price of $62.64

@Garpal Gumnut Greg is expecting a return to a more normal price. I am unintellectually expecting more than that eventually.

finicky said:
But if you value them on mid-cycle oil prices around US$80/bbl, they remain significantly undervalued.

Also Woodside has development projects maturing.

divs4ever · 2025-09-23T13:40:38+1000

finicky said:
I am unintellectually expecting more than that eventually.

the debt-pigs in the West can't afford even $US 70 for long , as their economies shrink and debt loads grow

so the question is .. how long is OPEC going to be accommodative given costs ( including shipping costs and insurance premiums ) are rising

if the West can get itself into a BIG war and abandon any pretense of fiscal discipline , oil will go to a fair price ( and beyond )

if the West gets itself into a trade war , the two beating hearts of manufacturing ( China and India ) will be on 'the other side' that will make Western 'manufacturing ' ( assembly of out-sourced parts ) hit all sorts of supply chain blocks .

so for the West the situation is demand vs cost the more oil costs the less they can pay for

Trump is hoping to loot all that Venezuelan oil and get a stable supply of diesel ( after the US refines it )

Antirnator · 2025-09-23T13:45:12+1000

divs4ever said:
the debt-pigs in the West can't afford even $US 70 for long , as their economies shrink and debt loads grow

so the question is .. how long is OPEC going to be accommodative given costs ( including shipping costs and insurance premiums ) are rising

if the West can get itself into a BIG war and abandon any pretense of fiscal discipline , oil will go to a fair price ( and beyond )

if the West gets itself into a trade war , the two beating hearts of manufacturing ( China and India ) will be on 'the other side' that will make Western 'manufacturing ' ( assembly of out-sourced parts ) hit all sorts of supply chain blocks .

so for the West the situation is demand vs cost the more oil costs the less they can pay for

Trump is hoping to loot all that Venezuelan oil and get a stable supply of diesel ( after the US refines it )

President Trump says he wants to keep the oil price low to put pressure on Russia. Other there really other side benefits.

Venezuela can afford to throw cheap peasants at low oil prices.

divs4ever · 2025-09-23T13:59:49+1000

Antirnator said:
President Trump says he wants to keep the oil price low to put pressure on Russia. Other there really other side benefits.

Venezuela can afford to throw cheap peasants at low oil prices.

so ... how much oil does Russia sell ( directly ) to the US ?

the EU sanctioned Russia so now buy Russian oil after China and India refine it for them and slanted the sanctions so the EU/UK mo longer even feast on the insurance premiums ( of shipping Russian oil )

and Venezuela is sanctioned by the US , so has little incentive to sell it to the US or even Brazil , why not use it at home ( unlike most of Australian oil )

AND if the oil price is too low the US can't produce it at a profit

Antirnator · 2025-09-23T14:37:37+1000

divs4ever said:
so ... how much oil does Russia sell ( directly ) to the US ?

the EU sanctioned Russia so now buy Russian oil after China and India refine it for them and slanted the sanctions so the EU/UK mo longer even feast on the insurance premiums ( of shipping Russian oil )

and Venezuela is sanctioned by the US , so has little incentive to sell it to the US or even Brazil , why not use it at home ( unlike most of Australian oil )

AND if the oil price is too low the US can't produce it at a profit

why would the US buy Russian oil?... it is about having another lever to stop the war in Ukraine

I am sure the US will be fine on the oil front

Europe not so much but they are already in economic trouble. 800000 public sector workers are striking in France and Germany is in a recession. I guess Trump will have to help them get some oil, the middle east are good friends of Trump . Maybe Britain needs to reopen the North Sea stuff.

It is amazing how much the Paris climate change agreement helped Russia and China. Economics is like a boat in rough seas, you never know when the next wave is going to hit or when someone will do something stupid.

WDS - Woodside Energy Group

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