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WDS - Woodside Energy Group

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Yes, I had read that piece and didn't believe it because I thought the authors must have been EWers and rigged the stats.
 
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Market Matters this morning

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Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
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/report/what-matters-today-revisiting-payment-stocks-as-xero-pays-4bn-for-melio/

Woodside Energy Group (WDS) $24.00

"WDS closed on Wednesday more than 38% below its 2023 high, while crude oil is trading 31% below its 2023 high, it’s not complicated; the positive correlation is strong. With President Trump pursuing his “Drill Baby Drill” mantra and OPEC+ currently happy to push prices lower, it’s a tough argument to make that crude oil will rally over the coming year, e.g. oil popped ~40% when Russia invaded Ukraine, yet when the Israel-Iran conflict broke out it only managed to rally ~20% at its best and within a week all of the gains have gone. WDS is still trading 4-5% above its pre-conflict level, yet oil prices have surrendered all their gains, making the risk-reward unattractive at current levels, in our opinion.

We see no reason to believe WDS can outperform crude oil, which itself feels like a coin toss.
MM is neutral towards WDS around $24
 
I really admire you fundamental guys. I just couldn't do it. So it looks as if it's not much change really and the world is not going to move for those rooting for a big move in WDS. The sellers yesterday between open and midday had a good look at the report and took profits. Not much change in volume today.

A 5d chart.



gg
 
Everyone is waiting for the finalising of the NW shelf agreement with the government.

"• Received the proposed approval from the Australian Government on the North West Shelf Project

Extension and continued consultation on proposed conditions."
 
divs4ever said:
the report is out but am still trying to wade my way through the spin
Click to expand...
So far as production and thus sales and ultimately revenue is concerned, second quarter comparing 2025 with 2024:

Gas production down 3%

Liquids (oil, condensate etc) production up 46%

Total production on an energy content basis up 13%

That growth in oil production is primarily attributable to the Sangomar project in Senegal which accounted for 37% of the company's oil and condensate production in Q2 2025 versus zero in Q2 2024.
 
Here’s a potential trade for Woodside Energy Group (WDS) that appeared in the weekly scans this week - further details available at the TradingView link through the linking page below:

Steven Haas (IvoryWolf)

Active trading of ASX/US stocks and crypto markets - subscribe for regular trade suggestions and discussions with an active, supportive community!
ivorywolf.start.page

 
Woodside Energy will significantly expand its east coast presence after reaching a deal with ExxonMobil to take operational control of the Gippsland Basin joint venture – the most important domestic gas source for the region – and potentially develop new supply opportunities.

The agreement marks the end of an era for the Bass Strait partnership, with Woodside assuming control from Exxon’s Australian subsidiary, Esso, which has managed the project for decades.

Under the revised structure, Woodside will oversee day-to-day operations and have the right to pursue and develop new gas fields in the region without Exxon’s involvement.

While no timeline was provided for a final investment decision, any development would need to proceed relatively quickly to address supply pressures ahead of the scheduled closure of the Longford gas plant in 2033.
..
..
The move signals a strategic expansion for the Perth-based energy major and reinforces its ambitions to bolster gas supply on the east coast as concerns grow over future shortages. The Australian Energy Market Operator has forecast a structural supply deficit by 2029 unless new sources are developed.

Woodside has identified around 200 petajoules of potential new gas reserves in the Gippsland Basin, but said further technical work was required and that a final investment decision was yet to be made. The proposed development would involve four new wells.

Chief operating officer Liz Westcott said the deal strengthened Woodside’s role in domestic energy supply. “As a proudly Australian company, Woodside supports essential domestic energy needs in both Western Australia through the North West Shelf, Pluto and Macedon operations, and on the east coast through its equity participation in Bass Strait. “Taking operatorship of Bass Strait demonstrates Woodside’s continued commitment to meeting Australia’s domestic energy demand while maximising the value of existing infrastructure.”
 
Dona Ferentes said:
and quietly rebuilding,; back to $27

View attachment 205603
Click to expand...
I agree WDS looks tasty. One morning around a beautiful dawn a very short while ago while having a breakfast of bran, cornflakes, yoghurt, full cream milk and black forest frozen fruit ( from the packet that they've changed the location of recently at Coles ) I did put in a limit order close to the present price but withdrew it on noticing a rather sour fall in the Price Of Oil over that night.

The company seems to have recovered it's oomph and I may buy on a drop in price. It is fully priced atm. imo.

gg
 
As some technical background, Longford plant has 3 processing trains and a separate gas conditioning plant.

Original design capacity with all three trains fully operational was 1115 TJ/d although in practice slightly higher rates were achieved up to 1168 TJ/d. The difference is just the usual case of the design having used conservative assumptions.

Due to diminishing gas production from the wells, one processing train is now closed which reduces capacity to 720 TJ/d with the underlying trend in well deliverability remaining downwards.

So if they find and develop more gas, the infrastructure is certainly there to be able to process it.

Chart showing daily production rates for the past 3 months current through to yesterday. Purple line shows available capacity, green bar chart shows actual production. Source = AEMO

 
It’s been a down and up calendar year so far. Picking up more on the drop has made the year somewhat more pleasing. Personally think management is positioning the company for the future and are executing all projects well and the dividends help holding long term
 
Market Matters Morning Report

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) $24.98

"Yesterday saw WDS shares fall to their lowest level in almost seven weeks following the latest OPEC news with the stock looking soft after its 46% rally from its April low. WDS showed solid operational momentum in the 1H, with higher revenues and production and lower unit costs. However, declining commodity prices and project-related depreciation pulled profits down, leading to a lower interim dividend of 53c fully franked, and note its yield is forecast to fall moving forward. However, the correlation between WDS and oil and gas prices is strong and while OPEC remains prepared to increase supply, supported by the “drill baby drill” mantra from President Trump we believe buying into the sector should be very targeted and selective.

We like the risk/reward towards WDS back around the $23.50 area, or 6% lower.
MM is neutral towards WDS around $25 short term."

Held
Possible Add for me if significantly lower ($21?)

What Matters Today: Will OPEC continue to weigh on the energy sector? - Market Matters

What Matters Today: Will OPEC continue to weigh on the energy sector? Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations
marketmatters.com.au
 
@Antirnator, yes around $21 is just a personal price that might tempt me to part with cash and buy. I'm not predicting it, although there's a mini peak of resistance in April and a gap up in May at ~$21 so I gave $21 chance.
But $23 looks plausible too - it's a 50% retrace of the medium term rally that started @$19 and ended @$27. Also some previous support and resistance in the $23 zone. All subjective of course, just need a target to push the buy button. I'm not closely following anything to do with their projects, I just figure when oil and LNG turns so will WDS, also I believe in enduring fossil fuel demand.

When I look at the historical earnings metrics on CommSec for WDS it's not irresistibly attractive.

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