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War threat in Ukraine

If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose

If it was only that simple the world wouldn't be in its current turmoil.

The world has become dependent on china for not only manufactured goods but also processed raw materials such as rare earths.

Can you really see the the west stopping all imports from China? Imagine the shortages that would create, and the massive increase of inflation, breakdown of vehicles waiting on parts, emergency services, and so on.

Nothing is impossible. Governments of the west could be strong enough to call a stop to China imports. Are the people strong enough to support the governments through the shortages, disruptions, higher inflation than what is already coming?
 

 
Agreed with the assessment RE: oil.
Biden alluded to some measures that would be implemented to help ease prices at the pump (and IIRC he alluded to the impact that would have on inflation). Saudi's have said that they wouldn't be adjusting their output. Iran seems to be preparing for a possible increase in demand pending resolution of nuclear talks with the US. Meanwhile, current sanction against Russia haven't disrupted crude supply, but that doesn't mean Russia won't decide to stop selling the US!
 
I can't see either side wanting to stop the flow of goods, China and the west are mutually dependent on each other, hence why China is trying to dance along the fence line on the Ukraine issue.

China wants to side with Russia for its defence and to maintain a strong and intimidating front against possible "western aggression", but it knows it is economically linked to Ukraine, and the rest of Europe and the USA.

If china could say FU to the west and not cause economic and political pain in china, they would, but they can't.
 

Same goes for the west, we will never say FU to China if China keeps sending goods to Russia.
 
Rumours are now circulating that Russia could be looking at beginning their attack in the coming hours, as the breakaway regions have asked for military assistance.

Gold is extending its gains after closing at new highs, while the ASX200 has dropped close around 2%. If the rumours end up being accurate, it could see the current price action accelerate. However, if they end up being false, it could help improve risk appetite, at least temporarily.

This is, of course, speculation, so it's important to remember all trading carries risk, and to closely monitor the situation as it develops.
 
Same goes for the west, we will never say FU to China if China keeps sending goods to Russia.
If china started military action against the west, you can bet the west would say FU to china, and their economy would crumble, and civil unrest would cause the down fall of their government.

That is why China will support Russia with words, but not militarily, as I said China is dancing a fine line, it wants to be the world factory and have a strong export economy, but it also wants to be seen as being defiant to the USA .

China has far more to gain economically from its relationship with the west than it can ever gain from its relationship with Russia, and they know that, they aren't dumb, they rely on having their people employed and feed, and thats all funded by their exports to the west.
 
However, if they end up being false, it could help improve risk appetite, at least temporarily.

With a looming interest rate rise of 0.5% by the Federal Reserve?
Risk appetite was down-trending, Putin's actions have now destroyed it.

It's a new game now IMO
 

How did this conversation escalate from trade to 'military action'?

We started on your comment "If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose"

China can afford to trade with both the west and Russia. The west needs China made goods and processed materials. The west will never shut down all trade with China, and China knows this.

Do you know how many of the worlds biggest companies have manufacturing and industrial facilities in China? Do you think that governments in the west will involve themselves in the loss of all that?
 
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I was giving an example of what would cause the West to shut down trade with China.

My original comment was simply stating that China values its economic relationship with the west far more than it’s relationship with Russia.

If China doesn’t support Russia militarily, then the whole “red bloc” concept is a bit dead in the water, and it’s just Russia on the footy field by itself against almost every other power in the world.

Just wait and see, you will see that Chinas Support of Russia is just a facade, sure China will trade with Russia, just like it wants to trade with everyone, but they aren’t blood brothers.
 

Yes, war between countries will always shut down trade.

Shutting down trade will lead to war, just as it did when oil trade was banned to Japan just before WWII.

China will not stop trading to Russia, they may make some conciliatory actions such as no more water pumps for Ladas to Russia but they'll keep trading. And the west will not want to or be able to force China to stop trading with Russia.
 
If the west can convince (negotiate) with China to join in a common good to change Putin's views and bring order back, the world could be back on track for world prosperity and peace. Fingers crossed.



 
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Has China ever brokered peace? Why would we expect them to do so this time?
The only nation China has managed to have some diplomatic influence over is North Korea... Not the greatest outcome...

I don't think they see themselves as "World Police" as does the US - to the benefit of many nations.
 
Just need to get the renewables in faster, they are cheaper anyway, sounds familiar?

Bit glib SP. "Faster" is not next month is it ? Creating a massive highly expensive energy shortage in the next few months would just be disastrous. Check oil crisis 1973 , 1979.

 
I wasn’t suggesting China would stop trading with Russia, I am just suggesting that they won’t do anything that will jeopardise their lucrative western markets.

the reason I mentioned this is that some people seem to think russia and China could form some self supporting economic and military union, I am just pointing out this is not possible.

hence I believe the russia-China union some people are worried about is over stated.
 
“Simply put, China has to back Russia up with emotional and moral support while refraining from treading on the toes of the United States and European Union,”

For China, supporting a Russian invasion of Ukraine would harm already deteriorating ties with Western nations, but Beijing is also eager to bolster its burgeoning relationship with Moscow to counter what it sees as U.S. efforts to suppress its rise as a global power.



 
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