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War threat in Ukraine

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Smurf1976 said:
One thing I wonder about is financial impacts due to the sheer speed and scale of commodity price movements?

That is, is anyone on the wrong side of a trade losing serious $ billions?

Pure speculation on my part but it's at least possible.
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Absolutely. US Aarlines are getting smashed, approaching COVID 2020 prices. NASDAQ now at new lows.
Keep in mind the Moex hasn't even opened up yet so foreign asset owners haven't even managed to mark-to-market!!!!!
 
Smurf1976 said:
One thing I wonder about is financial impacts due to the sheer speed and scale of commodity price movements?

That is, is anyone on the wrong side of a trade losing serious $ billions?

Pure speculation on my part but it's at least possible.
Click to expand...
Anyone that has contracts to supply goods or services at a fixed price, and not hedged their input costs may be hurt, and those that were counter parties to the hedging contracts will be hurting.

for example if Qantas has already sold the flights from Sydney to LA for this month based on lower oil prices and they haven’t hedged, their margins will be squeezed.

FMG burn loads of diesel, higher prices of diesel raise costs, but the Iron Ore price has rise also, but yeah there will be many companies having margins squeezed and others having margins inflated.

I can imagine it will create a push to more renewables, Hawaii for example relies on oil for 60% of its electricity, and it relies on planes burning oil, and off course ships and cars, I can imagine the Hawaiian utilities will be spurred on a bit harder to push for more renewables.
 
Can certainly see local, decentralised renewable energy being fast forwarded. The economics have been right for a few years now. The politics of self sufficiency vs external dependency is now sharply in focus.

I can see an investment led economy dominating for a fair time as distinct from a consumer led economy.
 
Ukraine is home to seven UN World Heritage sites, including the Saint Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv.

The Kyiv: Saint-Sophia Cathedral and Related Monastic Buildings, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra represent two outstanding complexes of cultural heritage monuments from the Middle Ages and Early Modern period (Kyivan Rus’ and Hetmanate Periods).

The property consists of two separate components: Saint-Sophia Cathedral and its related monastic buildings and the monastic complex of Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra with the Church of the Saviour at Berestovo.
 
Financial collapses will be far more likely. As Smurf pointed out there will be serious losses in speculative trades across many commodities.

I struggle to see how many companies will hold value as the implications of shortages and war type economies come into play. Somewhere I remember reading that derivative investments are in their trillions at the moment. Don't want to think about the implications of these coming unwound.

We know that food and energy prices are rising sharply. The impact on some countries could be catastrophic. May well be a lot of international debt going under water. International instability could also rise. Remember the Arab Spring rebellion ? Rising food prices was a big part of that movement.

Also wonder how insurance companies are going to cope under the pressures of word wide climate change events and economic turmoil from war.

Arab Spring - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
 

Might be interpreted as abandoning Ukraine (I'm sure Zelensky will tweet this) but it will avoid an escalation and prolongation of a war no one wants...
 
basilio said:
Somewhere I remember reading that derivative investments are in their trillions at the moment. Don't want to think about the implications of these coming unwound.
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That was my underlying thought - the risk of blowing up speculative funds and so on.

I'm thinking that there's at least some chance the modelling they're based on didn't allow for the sort of price movements that have occurred.
 
Smurf1976 said:
That was my underlying thought - the risk of blowing up speculative funds and so on.

I'm thinking that there's at least some chance the modelling they're based on didn't allow for the sort of price movements that have occurred.
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One of the guys from long term capital management was just on bloomberg, swaps are pricing in an 80% probability of default from the russian government.

But maths doesn't model in things like wars et al, hence why LTCM went bust in the asian crisis of the 90's.
 
How far will Putin go? He has no reason to pull back, sanctions will hurt Russia but world financial fear will hurt western markets and possibly be the final straw to recession/depression.

Sadly it is looking that the only way for NATO to stay out of this war is to negotiate with a mad man and to split the Ukraine in half. Saving the world from financial ruin and Europe from war and possible nuclear strikes

 

People look at the gutted remains of Russian military vehicles on a road in the town of Bucha, close to the capital Kyiv, Ukraine on March 1. Russian forces have struggled to make progress in Ukraine amid heavy fighting and fierce resistance. (AP Photo/Serhii Nuzhnenko)

Russian failures in Ukraine leave ‘no option for a possible victory,’ alleged FSB whistleblower says

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in unforeseen obstacles and challenges that make victory a near impossibility as casualties continue to mount amid crippling sanctions, according to a letter purportedly authored by a Russian intelligence analyst in one of Moscow's security agencies.
www.foxnews.com
 
LOL those are gutted remains of Ukrainian tanks. Russian tanks have that very obvious Z on them and are not old and rusty
 
bluekelah said:
LOL those are gutted remains of Ukrainian tanks. Russian tanks have that very obvious Z on them and are not old and rusty
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They aren’t rusty, they are burnt, paint burns of pretty easy with the high temperature of fuel and explosives burning they then begin rusting right awayalso true Z you are talking about is also just a temporary paint job that would have burned off.

Saying that those vehicles that are burned out aren’t tanks, they are Armoured personal carriers, and there may be some infantry fighting vehicles in there.

Google “why does steel rust after fire” and you will find plenty of scientific explanations
 
Lecture from 6 years ago. On the whys and possible outcomes. Also the thinking behind it. He surprisingly got a lot of it right. Takes a very neutral stance overall. Some interesting points all the way through.

Lays out the basics of why this thing started.

 
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