War threat in Ukraine

waterbottle said:

RE: the economic fallout, here's an excerpt from ABN Amro's commentary on the Russia - Ukraine crisis, published before Russia was banned from SWIFT.....

"In this scenario, western governments impose a ban on Russia’s use of the SWIFT payments system, causing major disruptions to all Russian commodity exports (i.e. not just gas, but also oil, metals and food). Alternatively, Russia itself imposes an export ban against Europe/the US. Either scenario would probably result in a global bottlenecks crisis. This would lead to even bigger shortages and price surges. For the global economy, we would expect the effects on growth (downward) and inflation (upward) to be intensified, with the US likely to be much more affected, as jumps in gasoline prices and even higher inflation broadly would weigh heavily on consumer confidence. The need for increased shipping capacity as European oil imports are redirected from Russia to other regions would put additional pressure on already strained global shipping infrastructure. This would add to the many bottlenecks currently weighing on global industry, and intensify inflationary pressures more broadly."


Sounds like inflation and rate hikes are locked in....

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basilio said:

Ominous. Looks uncomfortably accurate in the current circumstances.

I wonder if Western governments will recognize these threats and take more direct economic action to protect their economies ?

A simple for instance. Petrol prices and gas prices jump sharply. Oil companies profits surge. Governments decide to impose a temporary excess profits tax on oil companies and redistribute it to "hard working taxpayers" struggling to afford a tank of petrol to get to work.

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‘Putin’s purpose is to reverse the market of history since the end of the Cold War. His blood and soil vision seeks to restore Russian grandeur, territory and influence. He repudiates the legitimacy of Ukraine as a nation state — a reversion to law of the jungle tactics.’

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‘I will begin with what I said in my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and worries, and about the fundamental threats which irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely and unceremoniously from year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border.
‘This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch. To reiterate: they have deceived us, or, to put it simply, they have played us.
‘…in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain. The United States has not changed its position. It does not believe it necessary to agree with Russia on a matter that is critical for us. The United States is pursuing its own objectives, while neglecting our interests.
‘Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position. We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us.
‘Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us. Of course, the question is not about NATO itself. It merely serves as a tool of US foreign policy. The problem is that in territories adjacent to Russia, which I have to note is our historical land, a hostile “anti-Russia” is taking shape. Fully controlled from the outside, it is doing everything to attract NATO armed forces and obtain cutting-edge weapons.
‘For the United States and its allies, it is a policy of containing Russia, with obvious geopolitical dividends. For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation. This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty. It is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions. They have crossed it.’

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Telamelo said:

In times of war, propaganda kicks into action on both sides. So you have to read everything with a grain of salt. But you have to read both sides. That’s where you can hopefully come to a better understanding of the truth.

The narrative from the West is that Putin is trying to expand and re-establish the old Soviet empire. President Biden says Putin ‘has much larger ambitions than Ukraine. He wants to, in fact, re-establish the former Soviet Union. That’s what this is about.’

And from Paul Kelly in The Weekend Australian:


Now, let’s turn to the other side.

Below are selected comments from a televised speech Putin gave to the country last week.

It’s clear that Putin believes it’s all about the eastward move of NATO, which has forced his hand to act:


Seen through this lens, you get a different sense of the motivation behind Putin’s actions. Whether you think they’re justified or not isn’t the point. This is how big powers
roll.

And it might just help you to connect some of the dots in this ongoing war between the major powers.


*Above excerpt from "The Insider"

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He has invaded countries. He has persecuted and locked up his rivals. For all his undoubted brutality he has if anything been predictable. He says what he is going to do and he does it.
We know the mind of Vladimir Putin, he keeps no secrets from us. He is an arch Russian nationalist, he believes in empire. He is consumed with a sense of vengeance for what he sees as Western humiliation of Russia after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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Smurf1976 said:

One impact of all this will likely be on ammonia production and to the extent fertilizers become scarce and expensive, that ultimately feeds into food production and prices.

Not an industry I know much about in terms of the market but depending on which data you look at Russia is either the second or third largest producer globally with China being #1.

Plus various EU countries are also significant producers but to do that they're relying on Russian gas as the feedstock. Noting that natural gas is the main feedstock for production and not simply a means of powering it.

Ukraine itself is, or at least was, also significant in this industry.

Put all those together and it would seem at least plausible that a significant volume of production may be disrupted so that's another possible consequence of it all, the impact on the supply of fertilizers, explosives, diesel exhaust fluid and so on which are rather important to the functioning of agriculture, mining, transport etc.

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noirua said:

Maybe the only long term answer here is the assassination of President Vladimir Putin. After the collapse of a certain share I can only afford $1.95 as a reward - probably the value of Putin to humanity.

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basilio said:

Zelenskiy doesn't know what can't be done

Volodymyr Zelenskiy was a lawyer who moved into acting and played the role of accidentally becoming the Ukrainian President in a TV Series. In the political turmoil of 2018 he stood for Presidency as a protest against the widespread corruption in Ukrainian politics.

In Feb 2022 this "non politician" has moved political leaders and countries to undreamt of positions. His courage, commitment to his country and capacity to put a case has move political mountains. Check out this story on how he has moved politicians and countries to unheard of positions.

The phone has become the Ukrainian president’s most effective weapon

Analysis: Zelenskiy has managed to achieve an unheard-of range of sanctions against Russia thanks to a tireless round of calls to allies

www.theguardian.com

In a string of phone calls from a besieged Kyiv, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has persuaded the west to agree to a set of sanctions against Russia that were inconceivable a week ago.

Sensing how European public opinion is responding to the bravery of his people, Zelenskiy has been constantly on the phone to western leaders, using his Twitter feed to cajole, encourage, scold and praise his allies. In the process, sanctions regarded as unthinkable a week ago have become a moral baseline. The pace at which the west has been agreeing to the new sanctions has also left the lawyers, officials and bankers gasping for air, officials admit, as they work under severe pressure to turn headlines into reality.

One leader’s office said: “We are in awe of him. He may not eventually be able to save Ukraine, or change Russia, but he is changing Europe.”

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noirua said:

Maybe the only long term answer here is the assassination of President Vladimir Putin. After the collapse of a certain share I can only afford $1.95 as a reward - probably the value of Putin to humanity.

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rederob said:

I outlined the idea earlier.
Did you miss it?

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