VPG - Valad Property Group

[psychic]

VPG -VALAD PROPERTY GROUP

Current share price = 6.9 cents

http://www.valad.com.au/

Valad Property Group is an active fund and asset manager with a focus on multi-let commercial and industrial properties. Valad has an international network of local offices managing A$18 billion of assets.

Our core business is providing enhanced property returns to investors through value-adding activities.

Our network of 30 local offices in 17 countries enables us to match global investment capital with real estate opportunities.

Valad‘s aim is to continue to build a sustainable property business by providing stakeholders with the “value-add” that underpins the Group’s name and philosophy.

 

[redandgreen]

seems to be attracting a lot of interest...is it just the takeover rumour that is fueling this activity or is that the market is buying because it has been unfairly sold off earlier because of the Petrac situation?

 

[Newby Bill]

VPF has a high level of debt. Its high leverage level make it an prime candidate for liquidation. Let's hope it survive and its fate is not the same as AFG.

 

[Justthinkin]

Anyone trading this?

Volumes caught my eye...

Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
05 Jan 2009 0.072 18.00% 0.076 0.063 20,331,000
02 Jan 2009 0.061 15.09% 0.065 0.055 15,440,717
31 Dec 2008 0.053 17.78% 0.055 0.047 5,913,374
30 Dec 2008 0.045 0% 0.047 0.040 4,773,325
29 Dec 2008 0.045 18.42% 0.045 0.038 7,559,248
24 Dec 2008 0.038 8.57% 0.039 0.036 3,574,562

The ASX speed police issued a please explain mid December and I'd not be surprised they are invited to make an obligatory "No comment" tomorrow...

Watching the price action today, there seemed a lot of correlation with CER moveements...are behaviours just a re-weighting...surely the market is not suggesting that real estate is maybe an attractive investment ???

I can't see too many issues aside from the skittish markets...am I missing anything?

 

[Justthinkin]

I either (a) didn't miss anything; (b) ask such a silly question that fellow ASF members were too polite to respond to or (c) I'll soon be bitten by the bank monster secretly stowed in the VPG cupboard. I do wish to thank all those for the feedback...

For those that are interested, todays activity was as foreshadowed launched off with a complimentary please explain ex ASX. Befitting enough, VPG responded with the insightful "We have no idea but we do note the shares continue to trade at significant discount to NTA. Thanks for asking"

Vol ~ 26mil, last 9.4c, high 9.7c, low 7.3c. Nice if you were on board.

The banter is basically NTA at or about 90 ~ 95 cents, Huntley valuation at 57c, rumour / jibbersih persist re European money looking to make an opportunistic bid at 20 c...

I trust all and sundry had a good day. I shall resiume my lurking position.

DYOR ... these are the rantings of a naked man standing in front of Buckingham Palace wondering where on earth he can get one of those cute tall fluffy hats

 

[jonnycage]

i owned some vpg a little while ago, and thanfully sold well before
the big sell off.

would be a little weary, but i guess in todays climate anything is possible

 

[rocket12]

Anyone trading this?

Volumes caught my eye...

Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
05 Jan 2009 0.072 18.00% 0.076 0.063 20,331,000
02 Jan 2009 0.061 15.09% 0.065 0.055 15,440,717
31 Dec 2008 0.053 17.78% 0.055 0.047 5,913,374
30 Dec 2008 0.045 0% 0.047 0.040 4,773,325
29 Dec 2008 0.045 18.42% 0.045 0.038 7,559,248
24 Dec 2008 0.038 8.57% 0.039 0.036 3,574,562

The ASX speed police issued a please explain mid December and I'd not be surprised they are invited to make an obligatory "No comment" tomorrow...

Watching the price action today, there seemed a lot of correlation with CER moveements...are behaviours just a re-weighting...surely the market is not suggesting that real estate is maybe an attractive investment ???

I can't see too many issues aside from the skittish markets...am I missing anything?

Way way undervalued, I got in at 6.6c and will hold for the ride. Big rumors of a takeover from Europe at around 20c but should be worth a lot more than that.

 

[prawn_86]

Way way undervalued, I got in at 6.6c and will hold for the ride. Big rumors of a takeover from Europe at around 20c but should be worth a lot more than that.

Whats your criteria for undervalued ROcket?

A bit of supporting info/analysis would be nice

Thanks

 

[rocket12]

Whats your criteria for undervalued ROcket?

A bit of supporting info/analysis would be nice

Thanks

No cash flow probs like CNP, was 35 cents 12 weeks ago, NTA of 95c. Got dragged down by the likes of CNP BBI etc.

 

[prawn_86]

No cash flow probs like CNP, was 35 cents 12 weeks ago, NTA of 95c. Got dragged down by the likes of CNP BBI etc.

If you went on that basis you would be buying a hell of a lot of stocks at the moment.

I personally think the problem with NTA for property trusts, even if they do have good cashflow, is the liquidity and non-tangibles. If there was a fire sale they i would be very surprised if they realised their stated NTA...

 

[Justthinkin]

prawn

My interest was sparked by the volumes...

Just to bring the story up to date:
Date Close High Low Volume
07/01 9.8c 12 c 9.5c 44,605,031
08/01 10c 10c 8.4c 13,911,937

With respect to valuation.

On reserach VPG has (1) low debt (circa 35% against 06/08 valuations) and (2) "reasonable" cash flows. Seemingly sufficient to underwrite its basic busines model. Tick 1

(b) Underlying asset values will only ever be questioned/relevant when either cash flows are not adequate to service debt or they are to be sold. VPG recently announced sale of an asset at nigh 20% less than book value. In the scheme of things (ie this horrible market) is not a bad outcome. It does provide some comfort (not absolute)for the balance of their portfolio. Tick 2

(c) They seem to be accumulating cash.... I suspect they may have run the slide rule over some other players rather than taking defensive action...pure absolute obscene speculation on my part!!! Tick 3

(d) The reported NTA is about 90 to 95 cents. Huntley (a little dated valuation) around 60 c (attributing I understand no value to recent asset sold!!!) Tick 4

(e) The sector generally seems to be getting some interest... CER, IIF, VPG, Tick 5

I think this is a long way of saying that I'm comfortable with the VPG risk return profile and am not interested in fire sale value assets simply because I think VPG has sufficient depth, cash flows and management acumen not to ever need considering fire sale valuations.

We live in blissful hope (or ignorance or blind faith or ...)

It's been a tough day.I hope all ASF were not too bad

 

[inenigma]

At 4.7 cents this looks to be a steal.... Funny that for a company that has
minimal debt, they're cutting staff numbers by a quarter ??

 

[yettieboy]

does anyone know what its book value is?

I have a feeling it might bang off that support of around 3.5 cents but only time will tell.

Is there any chance of it going under?

Currently not holding

Great summer

 

[drsmith]

Is there any chance of it going under?

The stock market update from January 23 alone does not inspire confidence about it's future prospects.

 

[Avarice67]

A few days ago I posted the text below on HotCopper Forum... a few responses but would really like to gauge sentiment here in ASF. Any thoughts from holders?

"Avarice is fed up with waiting on VPG.

Having considered the accounts and investigated the constitutions of the Valad Property Group I think VPG is worth more broken up and sold as a funds management business and a separate trust managed by an independent responsible entity. IMHO

Happy to lead a charge... can I canvas the room for any support... need to get to 5% to call an EGM of the trust so about 80M shares... I'm good for 2M... any others want to support.

PS I'm not Nic Bolton!"

Since then I have had 33M worth of stock contact me in support... need 80M+ to call a meeting.

If interested contact Avarice_67@yahoo.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“He who can destroy a thing, can control a thing.”

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear... And when it is gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear is gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Frank Herbert, Dune, (American science fiction Author and Writer 1920-1986)

 

[ricee007]

Having considered the accounts and investigated the constitutions of the Valad Property Group I think VPG is worth more broken up and sold as a funds management business and a separate trust managed by an independent responsible entity. IMHO

Happy to lead a charge... can I canvas the room for any support... need to get to 5% to call an EGM of the trust so about 80M shares... I'm good for 2M... any others want to support.


Since then I have had 33M worth of stock contact me in support... need 80M+ to call a meeting.

Frank Herbert, Dune, (American science fiction Author and Writer 1920-1986)

In light of the fact that this stock has gone up exactly 300% from it's lows, do you still stand by this?

 

[fureien]

anyone with views on the recent surge? and whether theres a chance it will recover from the sell off for profits

 

[jonnycage]

now trading at 14 cents, gaining conifence and moment. target price at present anyone ? will keep hanging on for now


j c

 

[MACCA350]

12c seems to be a solid resistance level that's been tested numerous times in the last 9 months but never broke out until today. If we close above 12c and can hold that level we might see a push up to 16c then onto 22c, but the next major tested resistance level looks to be around 26c established in late Sep 08 if I'm reading the chart right.

But I'd expect to see VPG consolidate and confirm this push above 12c before pushing higher, so we may see some volatility between 12c and 15c.............then again I'm no charting expert

EDIT: looks like they've been put on hold and given a speeding ticket

cheers

 

[LLH]

Jumped in on this one a while ago at 3.9c, the risk at the moment certainly seems to be paying off.

There certainly has seemed to be some interest in the property stocks over the last few days with GPT, GMG and VPG being in the top 10 stocks traded by volume.

Will be holding for some time yet.

Any thoughts on whether VPG will return to the highs of 2+ years ago???