Van Tharp: Some excellent commentary on the current situation in the US

http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_update/Weekly_392_Oct_01_2008.htm

Well worth the read folks.

Yep, got that newsletter. Excellent summary.

Great post tech/a.
Copied his last two conclusions below: Wow!

As I’ve been saying since I wrote Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, we’re in a secular bear market. Phase II is now waking up from hibernation. This one could last a while. There will be many, many opportunities for those who survive it, but the word now is survival. And expect the entire bear to last at least another 10 years. Remember that we still haven’t seen the effect of the baby boomers getting well into retirement and needing to withdraw their retirement money from the stock market yet.

Long-term, I would expect the government to default on many of its future contractual obligations. How can it honor over $100 trillion in unfunded future obligations? This is just my opinion, but do you really trust the government? Remember what I said earlier—the government can change the rules any time it wants.

Knobby22 said:

Great post tech/a.
Copied his last two conclusions below: Wow!

As I’ve been saying since I wrote Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, we’re in a secular bear market. Phase II is now waking up from hibernation. This one could last a while. There will be many, many opportunities for those who survive it, but the word now is survival. And expect the entire bear to last at least another 10 years. Remember that we still haven’t seen the effect of the baby boomers getting well into retirement and needing to withdraw their retirement money from the stock market yet.

Long-term, I would expect the government to default on many of its future contractual obligations. How can it honor over $100 trillion in unfunded future obligations? This is just my opinion, but do you really trust the government? Remember what I said earlier—the government can change the rules any time it wants.

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Worth highlighting even more.

This is just my opinion, but do you really trust the government? Remember what I said earlier—the government can change the rules any time it wants.

Just look at the way SHORTING was banned in seconds!

Democratic dictatorship.

Consider these two pieces of information:

Also remember that in March 2007, the U.S. Federal Reserve published a study that said the U.S. was bankrupt with $67 trillion in debt, including future off-the-books obligations. I believe that study is still available on the St. Louis Fed web site. However, the off-the-books debt now amounts to well over $100 trillion with all the current happenings.

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...and...

Remember the derivative problem is massive. J.P. Morgan, for example, has $93 trillion in derivative exposure and no one (I repeat, no one) knows what that really means or what could happen if it unwinds.

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Yowzers...it's beginning to sound more and more like we're really at the edge of the abyss.

And expect the entire bear to last at least another 10 years.

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I just found one of his beliefs from T.Y.W.T.F.F. ...

"When looking at the bigger picture today, I believe that several primary factors must be considered.First, the debt situation in the United States is absolutely horrific with the total government debt equaling about $125 000 per person in the United States.Second, I believe we`re currently in a secular bear market that started in 2000 and could easily last until 2020.That doesn`t mean stock prices will go down but it does mean that stock valuations, measured by price-to-earnings ratios, will go down."

Phew, so it`s on record and worth respecting imo.Though as long as the stock prices go up that is fine.

I am currently reading Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom. If you haven't read it then do so, if you have read it, then read it again. This book was written in 2004 and was suggesting (dare I say predicting) the very situation we are seeing now.

Read chapter 10 pages 144 & 145 it sums it all up. Basically saying that the US will (have) created this situation because of their debt. And remember this book was published 4 years ago.