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US Unemployment

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Gold prices hold near all-time highs as US weekly jobless claims rise to 243K

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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13 the Labor Department said on Thursday. According to consensus estimates, economists forecasted a more muted increase to 229,000 claims. Last week’s data was revised up to 223,000.

Unemployment claims have risen to their highest level since early August 2023.
Not only are American workers starting to lose their jobs, but it is becoming increasingly more difficult to find new employment.

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Some early signs of a downturn in midsummer do not look good for the winter ahead going into the Election.
 
US Initial Jobs Claims heading up to the highest level since last August.
From Zero Hedge



And the number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.877 million last week - the highest since Nov 2021.



Is it enough for a rate cut in September?
Mick
 
only winning an election matters

Trump might finally be angry enough to end the Fed , and replace Janet as well
 
The ADP employment figures tbhat came out as a precursor to the BLS figures out tonight did not paint a great picture.
from Zero Hedge



Be interesting to see what spin the BLS puts on the figures.
Mick
 
Todays JOLTS reports for July has the usual revisions for the previous month.
Job openings (7.167 million) plunged deeply from June figures ( 8.184 Million).
Buts ok, because June figures were revised much lower to 7.9 million.
About 70% of the new jobs were artificially created by the BLS seasonal adjustments black box.
I am betting that Friday's employment stats will be a shocker, especially as the BLS have already admitted that their stats are questionable.




Mick
 
Septembers JOLTS report was a bit of a shocker in that the job openings fell by some 600k from the previous months high of 8million.
Job openings are now around the same level they were in 2018.
And this despite huge numbers of immigranyts into the US in that period.


What was unsurprising in that once again the previous periods reported numbers were revised downwards from 8 million to 7.8 million.
The big losers have been construction jobs.


In an ominous sign, the number of job openings is heading down to meet the unemployed numbers,and will likely cross over into negative territory, a situation not seen since the COVID times.
Mick
 
Latest employment stats out.
Given the level of DCM's given out by Trump you might expect a big fall in employment.
But 151,000 new jobs were created, while unsurprisingly, the January stats were revised downwards.
February also outputs the annual revisions, which showed that there were actually 600k less than previously published, despite all the continued negative post month revisions.
The good part is the vast majority in the Private sector, the bad part is that the underemployment rate jumped to 8%.
Obviously more people are looking for work as despite the increase in jobs, unemployment rose to 4.1% from 4%.
Given the uncertainty barelling around the US, one might expect the employment data to get steadily worse.
Mick
 
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