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The Thing About US Unemployment

Michael Cornips

Formerly known as TradersCircle3
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The US unemployment figures came out last week issued by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, with the media consensus view that they were fairly positive. Negative commentary came in the form that all the improvement was in seasonally adjusted figures, the raw figures showed a deterioration. Statistics aside, the chart below demonstrates some of the concern with the unemployment figures.

Even though the US population continually grows (blue line), the official US workforce has shrunk by about 8,000,000 people, from 133.9m in March 2009, to 126.2m now. Conspiracy theories suggest the real unemployed are being defined out of official statistics. Whatever the reason, the reality is that there are a lot of people not working, reducing the income of the country.


Michael Cornips
 
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Conspiracy theories aside,

How does this infomation affect the outlook for the global economy as a whole?
and what do you see as changing in Australian based companies? and to what scale do you see the changes happening?
 
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Nothing to do with conspiracy theories - just how flawed the complication of U-3 is. The actual unemployment level is around 22%. Jobs are not being created fast enough to meet population growth - let alone make up for the job losses of the GFC.

In fact, in the last 2 months, the US economy lost over 1.1 million jobs. The new jobs statistics you hear is nothing more than seasonally adjusted bull****.


The recovery is a lie.
 
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I hate to suggest facts when their is a good conspiracy afoot but...

1946 was 66 years ago.

US retirement age is 65.

Baby boomers are now retiring and leaving the category of Unemployed and Workforce.

There are supposedly 77 million Baby Boomers in the US and a good proportion of them would have to be consider part of the workforce.

cheers
Surly
 

explod

explod
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Nothing to do with conspiracy theories - just how flawed the complication of U-3 is. The actual unemployment level is around 22%. Jobs are not being created fast enough to meet population growth - let alone make up for the job losses of the GFC.

In fact, in the last 2 months, the US economy lost over 1.1 million jobs. The new jobs statistics you hear is nothing more than seasonally adjusted bull****.


The recovery is a lie.
Have been waiting for the reality post to come.:rolleyes:

"Houston, we got a problem" Trouble is most only take in the dribble feed of the doctored media,,, IMHO.:;)

I think the figure is roughly about 23.5%.
 
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An interesting concept - if you don't agree with something then it's a 'conspiracy'?

Anyway, back to the real data, the problem is that there has been a structural shift in developed economies with regards to employment due to the China syndrome (zero bound labour costs). It's no different here with the real U rate closer to 12%. Story

I think the following charts summarise the situation, with attention to the Employment-Population ratio.....

There would need to be approx 15 Million MORE jobs created just to get back to 2000 levels, let alone make any impression on the natural rate of population growth.

PS 'faulty' data from both the US & China is painting a picture far better than reality.......

US Employ Peak.jpg
US Employ Ratio.jpg
 

explod

explod
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Could you both share with us where you derived this figure?
Anyone putting up figures should justify them. The underlying unemployment figure for the US has been posted a number of times with explanation but of course if the figures do not come from the establishment few take any notice.

The US figures only relate to those who have lost their jobs and seeking work over the last 12 months, They also include part time jobs. A growing number of critics now question the use made of seasonally adjusted and also the revising down of previous monthly or quarterly figures.

On the higher figures:

There are many pockets of the US, particularly former manufacturing places like Detroit that are now virtual ghost towns. A check on google will reveal a great deal of other anecdotal.

Yes precise evidence is difficult. A bit like the climate, at the end of the day we only believe what we personally want to or what makes us feel comfortable. And of course most of us feel, at least subconsciously, threatened to think the US may be going belly up so that we will only see or believe what we want to.

The truth is that I (and would challenge others) to accurately know but I do question the figures from all sides.

As well as Bloomberg, the BBC, Financial Times etc., on one side we have a host of newsletters and blogg's too from all sides. It is interesting that the financial press put out very little data contrary to the green shoot or the problems are over scenarios.

I find the data clues from things like

"The Privateer" newsletter, "The Daily Pfennig" "The Asia Times".

Many books, such as one I am reading right now called "Currency Wars, the making of the next global crisis" by James Rickards, 2011

I suspect that Walls Street just makes them up as they go along to fit with where they are steering the Dow Jones Industrial Average.;)
 

Trembling Hand

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Explod why don't you pop over to the US and have a look with ya own eyes. :rolleyes:

I reckon a large proportion that are not officially employed manage to find work with the good old US of A entrepreneurial spirit.

The way most of the 3rd world does, like India, un-official economy.
 
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Anyone putting up figures should justify them. The underlying unemployment figure for the US has been posted a number of times with explanation but of course if the figures do not come from the establishment few take any notice.

The US figures only relate to those who have lost their jobs and seeking work over the last 12 months, They also include part time jobs. A growing number of critics now question the use made of seasonally adjusted and also the revising down of previous monthly or quarterly figures.
You're not looking hard enough. The BLS publishes the total number of unemployed, underemployed, discouraged workes every month with their monthly unemployment statistics. U6 (which is the measure of this) is currently 15.1%.

Here's January's (see table A-15)
 

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty
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Really doesn't matter if its 15 or 50% it still bad news and the figures are not coming down with more wanting to work rather than retire is placing more pressure on the figures,like OZ we should be able to ask do you have a job yes or no and how many hours a week do you work.
To me a job should pay enough to support you with food and shelter.
 
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Could you both share with us where you derived this figure?
Yes, there is a website set up by a very nice person which keeps statistics like inflation and unemployment using measures that were used to be calculated decades ago before they started being manipulated left and right to paint whatever picture the elites wanted people to see.


http://www.shadowstats.com/
 
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