The newsflashes seem to suggest that now, not only will the FED put rates on hold, but that the next rate changes will be in a downward direction...stubborn.
In the USA, the monthly headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 per cent, up from the 0.1 per cent increase in March; the annual rate dropped to 4.9 per cent - the first time in two years it’s been under 5 per cent - as last year’s larger rises drop out of the calculations.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the Core CPI also increased 0.4 per cent driven by higher rents, but, again, the annual rate ended up down slightly at 5.5 per cent. It was the fifth straight month that core prices have risen by 0.4 per cent or more.
The Fed has been at pains to say that its 2 per cent inflation target is still some way off and that it is prepared to increase interest rates further.
By raising the rate, the US is bankrupting itself. Can not afford to pay just interests on bonds so I expect the posturing I stop inflation was just that, did not really work that well and only a severe recession will put a dent on real CPI.The newsflashes seem to suggest that now, not only will the FED put rates on hold, but that the next rate changes will be in a downward direction.
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Given that the CPI is still sitting around 5%, well above the Feds target rate of 2 to 3 %, methinks the markets betting thinking is somewhat out of line.
Mick
Bloombergs have a a 25 bp cut in September factored in.By raising the rate, the US is bankrupting itself. Can not afford to pay just interests on bonds so I expect the posturing I stop inflation was just that, did not really work that well and only a severe recession will put a dent on real CPI.
But recession and rates down is not necessarily such a great market boost
I predict a rise of the Austrians....only a severe recession will put a dent on real CPI.
But recession and rates down is not necessarily such a great market boost
Hmmm looking at this graph it would appear that the Trumpet's four years are somewhat better than Sleepy Joe's to date.
Hmmm looking at this graph it would appear that the Trumpet's four years are somewhat better than Sleepy Joe's to date.
It's more of up, up and away.
well they applied MMT badly , totally predictable , human nature prevailed , maybe it would have worked under an absolute dictator , but folks worried about the next election had little chance , and of course fiscal responsibility was a recipe to get voted out ( maybe Trump could have sold it , but they sidelined Trump )I predict a rise of the Austrians.
Von Mises, et al, will be proven right in an eventual reckoning.
Denis Miller takes a stab at where it will be in 2027.Deficit spending is getting out of hand once again...Speaking of deficit spending... Did you know that: The US National debt is up $1.8 trillion since the debt ceiling “crisis.”
It took the US 209 years to add the first $1.8 trillion in debt.
we just did it in just 8 weeks after a “historic” debt ceiling deal.
Hilarious, still chuckling at that five minutes later."weekend at Bernies" politician Biden
there are lies , damn lies and statistics , so far the Fed is fixated on refining the statistics .. i wonder if they will patent the method so they can claw back the ( unrealized ) bond losses
One thing does not cause a recession, but the cumulative effects of multiple economic indeces will eventaully force folks into the realisation that a recession is becoming more and morelikely.CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: US Consumer Confidence plunged to 106.1 in August, much beneath the expected (116.0) and the downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The Present Situation index dipped to 144.8 (prev. 153.0), while Expectations declined to 80.2 (prev. 88.0), back near the recession threshold of 80, reflecting less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes. Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise—making big-ticket items more expensive. Notably, expectations for interest rates jumped in August after falling two months ago. Moreover, the outlook for stock prices fell and average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up. The measure of expected family financial situation, six months hence (not included in the Expectations Index) softened further. Looking at some of the internals, Present Situation Consumers' assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive in August, while Consumers' appraisal of the labour market deteriorated. Moreover, Expectations Six Months Hence Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook, with Consumers' assessment of the short-term labour market outlook less favourable on top of consumers' short-term income prospects worsening.
That total debt is about to come home to roost.The total outstanding debt owed by the US government is rising at an historic rate.
The Treasury’s FiscalData platform shows $97.7 billion was added to the national US debt between August 16th and August 22nd, bringing the grand total to $32.759 trillion at time of publishing.
US Debt Jumps $97,000,000,000 in One Week As Finance Expert Says 'Jaw-Dropping' Spending Will Fuel Era of Financial Repression - The Daily Hodl
The total outstanding debt owed by the US government is rising at a historic rate. The Treasury's FiscalData platform shows $97.729 billion was added to the national debt between August 16th and August 22nd, bringing the grand total to $32.759 trillion at time of publishing.dailyhodl.com
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