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TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

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That is a detailed analysis of why Ark thinks Tesla could be expected to reach $7000.US in 5 years.
Interestingly the Bull case scenario is $15k !

View attachment 106903
Very interesting read! still holding my shares from 2017! Have to keep reminding myself to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful... this has restored some confidence.
 

Gunnerguy

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Very interesting read! still holding my shares from 2017! Have to keep reminding myself to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful... this has restored some confidence.
Do(es) the Black Sean event(s) include issues developing in China either specific to Tesla, Elon, or US trade/geopolitics ?
I think a 1% chance to be rather low. I’d prefer a 1chance if that within the next 2-3 years.

Gunnerguy
 

orr

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Quarterly production rates now at above 200k units/ with minimal "S" and "X" due to line re-vamp...
Berlin and Austin to start contribution in two qrt's from now,.CyberTruck pre-orders reported at >1.1million
And that's the Auto arm of the business...
 
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I originally thought Tesla was a Phoenix, I watched for 3 years with disbelief at how high the price climbed and all the groups hanging one. The more I watched the more I was drawn in, and then I did it, purchased TSLA shares about 2 years ago. Last month I took delivery of a M3 LR, an awesome car which has brought back my childhood dreams of a future with tech and space travel.

Have I become a groupie?

My fear is that I have become too emotional and can only see the positives, along with most other commentators and groupies, and my decisions are blurring. Do I purchase more, do I see, do I sit.

No other share that I own has or is causes me such conflict, as Tesla does.

The Tesla share price predictions do not make sense, even if Tesla sell the number of cars predicted it still will not earn the required revenue to make those US$3000+ per share a sensible purchase.

Toyota SP at US$89 comes with a dividend, the last at $4.36. Their P/E ratio is 11.94

Predictions and shares go hand in hand, usually hey don't catch on with too many in the general public. We have seen what happens when they do - dot-com bubble.

Tesla Price/Earnings Ratio
2020 Actual1005.28
2021 Estimates246.51
2022 Estimates126.4
2023 Estimates116.55


The predictions for Tesla look good and I am gambling that they are right, as if they are a penny stock.

If Tesla is anything like their car, we will see beauty and magnificence with the occasional pimple.
 

Value Collector

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I originally thought Tesla was a Phoenix, I watched for 3 years with disbelief at how high the price climbed and all the groups hanging one. The more I watched the more I was drawn in, and then I did it, purchased TSLA shares about 2 years ago. Last month I took delivery of a M3 LR, an awesome car which has brought back my childhood dreams of a future with tech and space travel.

Have I become a groupie?

My fear is that I have become too emotional and can only see the positives, along with most other commentators and groupies, and my decisions are blurring. Do I purchase more, do I see, do I sit.

No other share that I own has or is causes me such conflict, as Tesla does.

The Tesla share price predictions do not make sense, even if Tesla sell the number of cars predicted it still will not earn the required revenue to make those US$3000+ per share a sensible purchase.

Toyota SP at US$89 comes with a dividend, the last at $4.36. Their P/E ratio is 11.94

Predictions and shares go hand in hand, usually hey don't catch on with too many in the general public. We have seen what happens when they do - dot-com bubble.

Tesla Price/Earnings Ratio
2020 Actual1005.28
2021 Estimates246.51
2022 Estimates126.4
2023 Estimates116.55


The predictions for Tesla look good and I am gambling that they are right, as if they are a penny stock.

If Tesla is anything like their car, we will see beauty and magnificence with the occasional pimple.
I guess it all depends on what proportion of your total investment capital is sitting in TSLA stock, I am personally holding TSLA as a 10 year hold minimum, but it only makes up about 1% of my total investment capital, so I am not worried about fluctuations over the next 2 -3 years etc.

If I were over 50% TSLA, and I was sitting on a huge gain I would probably look at taking some profit out.

You are right it is over valued based on what it is today, but it is under valued based on what it could be 10 years from now, but there is both market risk in the shorter and business risk in the long term.
 

orr

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TOP's ... Peta'FLOPS... and then Xa'FLOPS

Where do you begin if the DOJO has that as compute as a training unit???

In a hubristic steam of conciousness moment about an hour into the conversation between Dave Lee and James Douma, James says it all... but the more thought you put into it ... like 'faaark'

As noted 'Bezos is basically a grocer'
 
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Much to the surprise of many (including me), tesla has defied all the global supply chain worries and managed to deliver a record number of vehicles in the September quarter.
From todays OZ
The Silicon Valley electric-vehicle maker delivered 241,300 vehicles to customers in the three months ending in September, it said Saturday, up from 139,593 vehicles during the same period last year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast Tesla would deliver roughly 227,000 vehicles in the quarter.

The result positions Tesla to easily achieve its full-year goal of increasing deliveries by more than 50 per cent over last year’s total of nearly half a million vehicles. The company has put a total of roughly 627,000 vehicles in customer hands through the first nine months of the year.
That growth comes despite supply-chain disruptions that have constrained vehicle production across the global auto industry, leaving buyers with fewer options and denting sales.

The continuing semiconductor shortage is likely to cost the global auto industry $US210m ($A289m) in lost revenues this year, consulting firm AlixPartners said. In the US, the pace of auto sales was expected to fall in September to an annualised rate of 12.4 million vehicles, the lowest rate since May 2020, according to Wards Intelligence.

Tesla chief executive Elon Musk nodded to those headwinds in a note to employees last month, in which he said the company worked around shortages by building cars with missing parts that needed to be added later, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Tesla delivered a combined 232,025 Model 3 sedans and Model Y compact sport-utility vehicles in the third quarter, up from 124,318 of those models a year earlier. It was the first full quarter since Tesla introduced an upgraded version of its Model S luxury sedan, dubbed the Plaid.

The company handed over 9,275 of its higher-end models: Model S sedans and Model X sport-utility vehicles. Tesla delivered a total of 15,275 Model S and Model X vehicles during last year’s third quarter.

As of Friday, analysts surveyed by FactSet expected Tesla to report third-quarter profits of around $US1.1bn on revenue of more than $US13bn. That is up from a $US331m profit on $US8.8bn in revenue during the year-prior period.
There might be questions about the delivering of cars with components missing due to supply issues, but its still an impressive result.
I not there was no deliveries of the Cyber truck.
Mick
 

orr

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The last couple of weeks have contained a series of compounding matters of interest;
*growth stats
*The Berlin 'walk though'
*Insurance approval in Texas
*a few re-ratings from investment houses
*Stock on a roll
being but a few.....

But in the last day or so the news from VW, which is well condensed into five or so minutes by Rob Maurer ((Tesla Daily(19/10)) in his youtube, lays bear the future for legacy Auto. VW managment are sitting on their hands and they're one of the fastest movers in the bunch incumbents...

Any Considered criticism would be appreciated...
 
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"(Reuters) - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc surpassed $1 trillion in market value on Monday after landing its biggest-ever order from rental car company Hertz, a deal that reinforced the electric car leader's ambitions to top the entire auto industry in sales over the next decade."

Screenshot_20211026-070844.png
 

orr

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On public responce and Uber's reaction Hertz doubles down on their purchace, at a non discount, full retail, to a percieved demand of 200k Model'3...
A week is a long time in the new world of best in class EV's..... try not to let'm ruin your weekend.

Might be some food for thought with regard to possibilities in the soon upon us 'Coal dust-belt' areas of the australien economy.
 

orr

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At these levels at this point in time ??? ........seriously thinking about trimming....

good luck to all holders...

But; this current price was something in the mid term future of my expectations....

Considered critism ...etc etc.
 
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There have been a number of videos analysing the Battery Mega Pack industry that Tesla is developing. If you remember Tesla built a 100 MW battery pack in 100 days for South Australia. It has proven an outstanding financial as well as engineering success. This video analyses the improvements Tesla has made since that development and the profits on the deal. Imressive.

 
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"Tesla CEO Elon Musk should sell about 10 percent of his Tesla stock, according to 57.9 percent of people who voted on his Twitter poll asking users of the social media network whether he should offload the stake.

The world’s richest person tweeted on Saturday that he would offload 10 percent of his stock if users approved the proposal in a poll." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/7/elon-musk-tweets-to-ask-if-he-should-sell-some-tesla-stock

There was rumour that that TSLA could be readying for another share split very soon. Looks like that will be put on hold.
 
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Ok so Elon Musk will sell 10% of his shares at $1000 plus.
But in earlier this year in fact he was buying another 8.4 million shares at $70 each.o_O

Elon Musk qualifies for $14 billion options payout after Tesla quarterly report

Key points:​

  • Mr Musk receives no salary at Tesla, and his pay package requires Tesla's market capitalisation and financial growth to hit a series of rising targets
  • He now has the option to buy 8.4 million Tesla shares at $US70 each ($89), a discount of more than 90 per cent from their current price
  • In its quarterly report after the bell, Tesla said it incurred an expense of $US299 million ($371 million) related to Musk's pay package

 
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