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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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Trump slaps india with a 25% tariff on all goods, then a 100% tariff on all semiconductors (microchips) for everyone, apple thus commits to FOUR new chips plants in the U.S for a cheeky 100 billion extra in investment.

They were previously thinking about building them in india as they announced one in india with foxconn and were then going to do some more
 
"Apple is pioneering a complete end to end chip supply chain entirely within the united states".

I've been banging on about this for a looong time. Think about the size of this company and what they've just committed to. These types of decisions are not made on a whim. They are made as a result of extreme confidence in a multi-decade trend.

Bet on america guys. Seriously.

Unless you think you know better than apple of course.
 
Meanwhile, as the political parties do, the idea of J.D vance succeeding trump in 2028 is now being floated across social media to see what the reaction to it is. The responses have been quite positive.

Food for thought.
 
Mr. Trump is applying pressure to India part of which is certainly via AAPL moving manufacturing back to the US. However the main pressure is an attempt to prevent India from buying Russian gold. This caused an immediate gap up in the price of gold.

Mr. Modi is under considerable pressure domestically. It is possible he may start a war with Pakistan to rally his followers domestically as he is between a rock and a hard place, either capitulate and pay Trump's tariffs or give up cheap oil from Russia. The latter is only 20% of India's oil imports and the price paid has been rising.

Interesting times.

gg
 
every two bit hopeful ASX minerals explorer seems to be carrying a narrative along those lines
Western Defense Supply Chains Under Pressure — [our] high-grade antimony discoveries offer a potential strategic U.S. solution
Click to expand...
gallium, antimony, the REE suite, etc; they all get a mention, often displacing the core Cu, Au, IOGC story.

its good, but not every project will be a winner
 
And if Apple makes more of their products in America, their products will end up costing more because of much higher labour costs in that country. WHO is going to buy more IPhones and MacBooks if they cost significantly more. iPhones and MacBooks made 100% in America like Trump is spruiking, Dream On !!. I’m sure US consumers will be delighted with the thought of paying a lot more for the tech gadgets. Would you will be willing to be spend a lot more on computers or smartphones yourself if they made 100% in America yourself in this country???.
 

It will be interesting to watch if and how they do it certainly if they can get serious chip production up and going morphing into other areas such as defense then there likely backhander payments from the administration being made.
 

Robotics, AI and Tariffs.

German labour costs have been higher than most for decades, yet they still managed to manufacture inside Germany and sell to the world. How did they do it? Name-brand recognition, quality, robotics, and clever economics.

The Trump experiment will be interesting, and no different to what we saw pre-1980's.
 
DannyB0000 said:
WHO is going to buy more IPhones and MacBooks if they cost significantly more
Click to expand...
People already pay way more for the apple version of a technologically identical product.

Apple's actually a textbook (literally) example of branding and inferior products selling so well. The technologically superior products are bought by nerds, ergo they are uncool. PC's, samsung galaxy phones etc are for nerds. But apple products? They're for the cool people (girls).

And girls will pay staggering sums for appearances.

Those old "I'm a mac and I'm a pc" ads worked for a reason
 
I’m an apple fan myself. iPhone, IPad and MacBook Air. I would not be buying their products if they were thousands of dollars of more even if I like the brand name.

55 years old with grey hair, very unfashionable.
 
Also if the company is protected by large tariffs then there will be little choice.
 
I must admit that I prefer Apple/iPhone to PC/Android. I find it more intuitive and overall easier to use. It does look better, though less so in recent years as the South Koreans seem to be catching up.

gg
 
Even Germany has been struggling for years.
Don't have time to pull up other stats, I've got to get some work done. They were even going through a cost of living crisis last time I looked.


The recent weakness in the German manufacturing sector

Germany’s manufacturing sector has struggled since 2021 due to rising energy costs, weak global demand, and a declining automotive industry. This column describes how higher gas consumption in energy-intensive industries, trade fragmentation, and competition from China have hit Germany harder...
cepr.org
 
DannyB0000 said:
I’m an apple fan myself. iPhone, IPad and MacBook Air. I would not be buying their products if they were thousands of dollars of more even if I like the brand name.

55 years old with grey hair, very unfashionable.
Click to expand...
I think you did because "iPhone, IPad and MacBook Air. " Maybe not thousand but at a very least one thousand..unless you bought second hand or refurbished.
With automation and robots, prices are levelled along countries, what count is energy and real estate costs for the factory, taxation.
So an American vs Indian iPhone price difference would not be that big as you also save on transport costs...and shipment time.
 
Germany in recent time
open border invasion, energy price x8 thanks to Russia blowing up their own gas pipeline to cut off Germany cheap energy supply, and add green net zero push there to nail the coffin.
Joking obviously on the pipeline
Not much to do with pure economics
We are not the only one choosing economic suicide
 
JohnDe said:
German labour costs have been higher than most for decades, yet they still managed to manufacture inside Germany and sell to the world. How did they do it?
Click to expand...

Germans are special, their engineering is mind boggling good, control systems the very basis of pure logic, work ethics 100%, training standards super high.

Its seems to be in their dna.
 
Tarriff kicked in 3pm our time.
From ABC.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency began collecting the higher tariffs about an hour ago, which jumped from 10% to 50% on dozens of trading partners.

Some countries have reached framework deals with the U.S. that reduce their base tariff rates to 15%, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

Britain's rate sits at 10%, while Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines have rates that sit at about 19% or 20%.

As for China, it could face a potential tariff increase on Tuesday unless Trump approves an extension of a prior truce the countries agreed upon after talks last week in Sweden.
 

My reference to Germany was just an historical example, Germany has been a successful manufacturing nation with a first world labour cost for a very long time and managed to sell without much of a problem. Yes, Germany is going through some pain, especially with energy but which country isn't.

Labour costs are not the largest contributing factor of the overall expense. There was a time when first world countries were able to lower costs through productivity, this has not been the case for the past decade, but I think things are changing. Keep an eye on companies and industry that are on the cusp of taking advantage of the changes, some nice price rises are coming.

Most countries share a similar wage structure, only China being the anomaly. I wonder how long that will last.




Labour Costs - Countries - List

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Labour Costs. This page provides values for Labour Costs reported in several countries. The table has current values for Labour Costs, previous releases, historical highs and...
tradingeconomics.com
 
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