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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

Trump overnight has threatened to raise tariffs on the EU by 50% by June 1. He has also threatened Apple with 25% tariffs if they don't make iPhones in the US which just isn't going to happen, iPhones would end up costing a lot more than 25% if they were made in America. Labour costs just cant compete with China or India.
 
Well this makes sense to every one expect the brain dead The Trumpet
 
Crazy stuff isn't it ? At what stage does Trump and the US lose all credibility ? How does the rest of the world respond to such a dangerous loose cannon ?

Strong story on the ABC on the concerns of the RBA and the bond markets at basic US financial stability.

Reserve Bank on high alert for economic fallout as Donald Trump continues to spook investors

By business correspondent David Taylor
1h ago1 hours ago

US President Donald Trump has a big plan for extensive tax cuts. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)

Link copied

US 10-year Treasury bonds have long been considered "risk-free" — until now.

That's put the usually circumspect Reserve Bank of Australia "on alert" for a potentially "cataclysmic" economic event.

Up until now, if you gave the US government money over a 10-year period, you were, essentially, certain to get your money back with interest, on average, 4.25 per cent.

 
right, so it's a way to raise taxes on the everyman while making apple the scapegoat
 
I believe it is worthwhile garnering as much information from the experts on Donald Trump's psychological makeup as possible to assist in predicting his moves, a difficult task, in relation to stocks and markets. Despite many commentators saying that this is the end of the US as being the leader economically this is not the case. US interest rates go up or down, so do Australian and the rest of the world. US markets tank, so do ours. This is a snippet from a longer article from expert psychologists. I believe it is worth a read. We all agree he is mad, but what sort of madness and how do people with his form of madness make decisions, if it is possible to work out given his impulsivity.

A study in Clinical Psychological Science revealed that American voters, regardless of their political leanings, perceived Donald Trump as having traits associated with sadistic and narcissistic personality disorders. Both Trump supporters and detractors rated him as highly disordered, with only a difference in the degree of perceived dysfunction. The research highlighted that voters were not necessarily divided on Trump’s personality traits but rather on how these traits influenced their judgment of his suitability as a leader.

gg
 
We all agree he is mad,

Do we ? Who does ? The Republicans in Congress or the Senate ? In any case I suggest many people think a bit of madness could be a good thing. Keep people on their toes stuff ?

On ASF who thinks he is mad and therefore unfit/dangerous/clearly a political disaster ? As far as I can see only a very few posters express such sentiments. There seems to be a "Que sera sera " acceptance with the quite hope they will not be affected directly. The fact that millions of other people and institutions are being attacked and destroyed is allowed to slip through to the keeper.

If I had to look for serious madness I would throw the spotlight on the Republican Party which is studiously trying to avoid seeing what is happening and praying that people can jump off cliffs and actually fly. In point of fact a significant number of them have followed Trumps mental path (or were already on it) so they don't count. The rest ? Who knows.
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Perhaps[ worth checking out

 
Well @basilio to me he is a very loose canon and appears to making calls on the run.
Perhaps his minders have pulled him into line a bit but the damage has already been done.
His mental state is something only he and his medical experts would know, we will not know about it until it is too late.
 
So we know in layman's language that he is a bully and impulsive. This means that if someone crosses him that he will retaliate. However he also keeps grudges and the at an opportune time explodes with an over the top demand or punishment.

An example of the latter would be Apple who have bent over backwards from being dismissive of him to throwing cash at him, I believe from memory for his inauguration.

Did we have forewarning of the 25% tariff he has just put on all iPhones not actually made in the US? Could an ordinary investor have predicted this and sold AAPL stock sooner than many will on Monday.

In other words within his madness and unpredictability is there any method to his madness.

The 50% tariff on European exports to the US is an example of a well flagged punishment waiting to happen. He hates Europeans. This will affect German cars, Irish pharmaceuticals and Europe's food and alcohol exports to the US. Were we too lax in not expecting this tariff to occur now. Did we think it wouldn't happen. From the man's psychological profile is now the obvious time for him to act on Europe?

Just some thoughts.

gg
 
From my POV, if I spewed forth the flood of lies, deception, blatant denial of facts, backflipping, making plans on whim and continue with b/s, I'm sure I'd lose most of, if not all of my friends.

My employment/employable prospects would be very bleak and I certainly wouldn't have a deep and meaningful love life but hey, when one has wealth aplenty, who cares right?

Empathy, understanding and the rule of law is for smucks...
 
So thankful for the TDS afflicted geopolitical trade experts in this thread.
 
@Craton Ah well, the almighty dollar rules and buys all the power and subservient followers.
 
right, so it's a way to raise taxes on the everyman while making apple the scapegoat
Also it may be that Apple don't have to make all iPhones in the U.S, my guess would be that Trump wants a manufacturing facility built in the U.S, so that it complies with the mandate that things that aren't made in the U.S get a tariff.

But if Apple agree to build a plant there, it adds to Trump's platform that he is adding tech jobs and relocating manufacturing.

As was shown here in Australia in the recent election, a lot of politics is about the optics, if trump can get Apple to commit to build a plant in the U.S that would be a huge win, and I'm sure the multinationals wont want that.

If one of the major tech multinationals agrees, it will be hard for the rest to hold out.

It is certainly an interesting tussle, the multinationals that want to make their $hit in third world countries, but sell them at a huge mark up in first world countries.
Getting them to invest in first world countries is difficult, but if they don't the first world countries will run out of money, from the multinationals perspective that isn't an issue because the third world countries are getting richer.

It is just a case of who can hold out longer, the multinationals and their third world suppliers, or Trump.
 
I think what will collapse first will be the confidence of the bond market and support for the US dollar.

As far as multinationals bringing back investment to the US ? That was the essence of the Biden green energy program. Re engineering the US for wind, solar and batteries and EV. Every bit of that program is now being destroyed courtesy of Trumps manicial desire to destroy Bidens work.

The economic reality is that the cost of bringing manufacturing back to teh US and the ongoing costs of production are simply not economically viable for many industries. Does Trump intend to run a closed command economy ? Only US products allowed at whatever cost the manufacturers deem necessary ?

I think the bond and dollar markets will respond in close time.
 
Could not resist this. Just so on point..

Ramaphosa Asks Trump Why Americans Slaughter School Kids and Nothing Happens





South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has ambushed President Trump at the White House, demanding to know why the **** elementary school kids continued to get gunned down in their own country, and nothing is done about it.

“What would it take for you to be convinced that there is no genocide of school kids in America?” Ramaphosa asked. “We have thousands of stories talking about it, we have documentaries, we have news stories. Everyone else in the world looks at America and wonders what the hell is going on”.

He then asked for the lights to be dimmed before showing a 14-hour video documenting all the school shooting that had taken place in the last ten years.

As the video ended, he began leafing through news articles print outs, saying American teenagers had faced “Death, death, death, horrible death”.

Handing the pictures to Trump, he said. “And yet you do nothing about it. Why? Why do you allow this to happen. Your children are being gunned down. This has been happening for decades and yet you shrug your shoulders and say it is unavoidable. The rest of the world is horrified”.

There have been 574 document school shootings in America since 2000, with eighteen so far this year.

 
Worldwide central banks aren't piling into the gold stocks for no good reason; it's a tactic to safeguard against inflation and geopolitics, more or less a hedge.
If there is an abandonment of the USD, by other nations, things will get bad for the US in my opinion.
 
Like I said in a much earlier post, the manufacturing jobs like my parents had like car manufacturing and textiles are never coming back to this country, it's not economical viable to make cars anymore in this country, thanks to LNP axing subsidies under Tony Abbott. It's a lot cheaper to make clothes like Jumpers in Asia. Up until 1987 and 1988 it was still possible to find made in Australia clothing at Myer but now it's mostly all made in China.

I think Apple making phones in the USA just isn't going to happen due to much higher labour costs in that country, dream on Trump. iPhones would end up costing up to $3000 US($4613) AU in our money. Which consumers are going to be willing spend that on a new iPhone. Unless maybe iPhone manufacturing is fully automated using AI to the max which will still mean less need for workers.
 
They'll more likely move manufacturing to another country that has fewer tariffs on it. They might move a small part of the plant over to the US, which makes simple parts of the phone to be patriotic, but that's it.
 
Like I said in a much earlier post, the manufacturing jobs like my parents had like car manufacturing and textiles are never coming back to this country, it's not economical viable to make cars anymore in this country
Question is, what balances the trade in the absence of domestic manufacturing?

Borrowing and printing isn't going to work forever, at some point there's a requirement to actually pay for the imports with real money as defined by the supplier.
 
"He proposed something he calls “Ferguson’s law”. It posits that “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defence risks ceasing to be a great power”.

He describes his proposed threshold as timely “as the US began violating Ferguson’s Law for the first time in nearly a century in 2024”. The Congressional Budget Office says that US net interest payments hit 3.1 per cent as a share of GDP last year, overtaking defence spending at 2.9 per cent."

There’s an old market adage: “Deficits don’t matter. Until the day they do.”

 
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