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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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As the market burns Trump is in Florida playing golf, blame globalists and the radical left.

Glad I moved more than half of my super money to cash in January, sometimes cash is king. Still 60% cash.

PS; Ive never seen the Stockmarket fall more than 2,000 points in one session, going to be carnage next week.
 
And the Sword of Damocles has been hanging over world markets for some time, once again by "creative" derivatives.

It was never going to take much to cause the piece of string to snap. In a more conservative financial regime, there world hardly be a blip over these tariffs IMO.
 
I've seen this guy get some things spectacularly wrong over the years, but I kind of feel the same way at the moment. There's probably going to be another dead cat and then continued selling to a bottom a bit lower. I do agree with over9k though. Who can really pick a bottom?

 
well the market has been irrationally high for a fair while before Trump even started his election campaign , even our XJO hit a record high on February 14 this year now it is within 200 points of the 12 month low , so we haven't pierced that yet .

we will see next week , but be careful some sort of relief rally ( BTD , or dead cat bounce or short-covering ) i don't expect it to be all down

watch gold and oil ( if oil drops much more, some producers can't make a profit so the US loses it's self-reliance edge ) and it might tempt some to swap from bonds to gold if gold dips below $US 3000
 
over9k said:
Drip feed your buys in lads, there's no way you're going to be able to predict the bottom with any kind of certainty so you need to spread your orders out a bit
Click to expand...

As a rule markets overshoot and pricing in this environment is gambling to an extent thinking that Trump knows something we don’t isn’t a good basis for buy orders watched Trump for a very long time I think he has NFI TBH.
The certainty that existed in supply chains is gone suspect it will be months before we know where it lands…. Maybe
 
You're forgetting he's getting advised by America's most wealthy, they'll rob the poor blind like they always do.

It's like the old saying, when it's too good to be true, it usually is. How many people thought the last dead cat bounce was the bottom?
 
over9k said:
Drip feed your buys in lads, there's no way you're going to be able to predict the bottom with any kind of certainty so you need to spread your orders out a bit
Click to expand...
yep , am attempting that , so far my targets are below the action , that might not be so on Monday ( even if i lower some prices )
 
Country Lad said:
Once upon a time……..

Nero fiddled while Rome burned.

In current time……,

Trump played golf while America tanked.
Click to expand...
i heard an interesting analysis that the current game is to prop up the US Treasury appetite because the US needs to refinance $7 trillion very very soon

maybe delaying a default is really what is happening

i can't claim it is correct ( and would unravel if the BIG bucks run to bullion ) , but something to think on , remember Trump featured ( for a while ) on World Wrestling ( entertainment ) this could be just show and distraction
 
DannyB0000 said:

There might not be any FED bailouts this time around
Click to expand...
can the Fed bail it all out and retain any credibility ( if not it all fails anyway )

after all nearly every modern currency relies on confidence ( the note/bill/currency holder can get paid on demand )
 
Three very bad days on the world stock markets with Friday being another rout.
On top of that China hasn't blinked and matched the US 34% tariff.

I wonder if/when institutions like Super funds start selling ? Who will be on the other side of the trade ?
How are the banks fairing in this bloodbath ? Do they have exposure that will threaten their stability ?

How can Central Banks calm markets over the weekend? The US Tariff demands are on the table. China has already responded. Every other country is urgently looking at their industries and finances to see how to survive. These are not sentiment but current reality

Currency fluctuations are now ENORMOUS. (Who is on the other side of these trades ?)
 
Another concern I have is the financial stability of scores of countries and industries around the world. The US Tariff demands are major stresses on these economies. The Stock market collapses add another layer of pressure. I wonder when we will the effects of these policy decisions on multiple countries position on international debts.

How effectively can the IMF handle multiple defaults ? Again who is on the other side of these obligations ?
 
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