Brett,
Doubtless it has been covered before. And you can build a system which only trades a few stocks (whatever your definition of "few") and is highly optimised for just that basket. But the fewer the securities the less signals that it will generate. This may not be an issue for you depending on your objectives (something you need to ascertion prior to designing a system). You will also need to be right on top of the system to modify it as the securities change character and the system breaks down (the major problem of highly opimised systems). But a high expectancy system with few opportunities will probably not be as profitable as a lower expectancy system with more opportunities.
For example consider a very long-term trend following system which has an expectancy of 2R and generates 10 trades in a year. Your return will be year 20R. But how about a system of 0.4R which generates 120 trades a month? Your expected return could be 48R.
I have two systems, one medium term and one short term and the only price filter I use is > $0.02 so they generate far more trades than I can take which means my opportunity is limited only by capital.
Really don't like the lack of edit capability.
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I realise that there aren't many women around hereBut being the woman that I am I keep changing my mind. 20 minutes is simply not long enough, is it possible to make it 30. please pretty please
And also I love using smilies and 5 is also simply not enough how about ten at least for me if the others don't care
Brett,
Doubtless it has been covered before. And you can build a system which only trades a few stocks (whatever your definition of "few") and is highly optimised for just that basket. But the fewer the securities the less signals that it will generate. This may not be an issue for you depending on your objectives (something you need to ascertion prior to designing a system). You will also need to be right on top of the system to modify it as the securities change character and the system breaks down (the major problem of highly opimised systems). But a high expectancy system with few opportunities will probably not be as profitable as a lower expectancy system with more opportunities.
For example consider a very long-term trend following system which has an expectancy of 2R and generates 10 trades in a year. Your return will be year 20R. But how about a system of 0.4R which generates 120 trades a month? Your expected return could be 48R.
I have two systems, one medium term and one short term and the only price filter I use is > $0.02 so they generate far more trades than I can take which means my opportunity is limited only by capital.
Good post.
It's "fewer".......
"This seems to increase risk as the entries you do now follow are random and does not match what was most likely back tested."
Which is why I use Monte Carlo analysis to backtest tens of thousands of possible permutations allowing me to have confidence in the system knowing that irrespective of what signals I take, as long as the live results (expectancy, maxDD, annualised return, R:R, etc) are within the tested bounds then I'm ontrack. I also constantly update and rerun the tests so they include present data concurrent with live trades. I could not trade a system with no back tested/forward tested results as I couldn't trust it. How would I know if the one-off live results were luck or a good system or a bad system?
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