The future of energy generation and storage

[Antirnator]

Hmmmm……

Reading is hard.

 

[sptrawler]

Another NBN?

Starting to look that way.

CEFC to get new mandate for rapid rollout of wind and solar as Australia aims for 97 pct renewables

CEFC to get new mandate to support rapid rollout of wind and solar as long term targets aim for 97 per cent renewables, with no coal and just a little gas.

reneweconomy.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

Just saw this on the AGL thread, it doesn't sound good.
If the Government doesn't step in the smelting will probably go offshore, which would be a disaster.
I wonder if the Government will press Snowy to underwrite the supply contract with Kurri Kurri?

It is certainly all coming to a head in the energy space, which is a good thing, the earlier the better, at least then clarity starts to take precedence soft feel good slogans.

AGL Energy delivers grim reality check on Tomago aluminium smelter​

AGL Energy has warned Rio Tinto it won't subsidise power costs for NSW's largest electricity user, as crisis talks continue over the Tomago smelter



This from another article sounds ominous.

Government has not set 2035 renewables target, downplays 90pc

In New York for the UN summit, Energy Minister Chris Bowen declines to offer a renewable energy target for 2035 after the Climate Change Authority projected more than 90 per cent would be needed to hit its recommended emissions target.

www.abc.net.au

Mr Bowen said he was "confident" the earlier target could be met but acknowledged it was an "ongoing challenge".

"Once we get to 82 per cent renewable energy in 2030, which I am working towards achieving, and have some confidence we will achieve, then we'll keep going," he said.

"Obviously, 82 is a high number … When you get to a number like 82, and then to continue to go after that, you've got to keep working. The low-hanging fruit disappears."

 

[SirRumpole]

Starting to look that way.

CEFC to get new mandate for rapid rollout of wind and solar as Australia aims for 97 pct renewables

CEFC to get new mandate to support rapid rollout of wind and solar as long term targets aim for 97 per cent renewables, with no coal and just a little gas.

reneweconomy.com.au

It's not the intention to go renewables that bother me, it's the arbitrary target and unseemly haste.

It looks more like virtue signaling than establishing a reliable and affordable grid.

Bowen won't be around if it all goes wrong, he'll probably be a consultant for the coal/gas/nuclear industry.

 

[sptrawler]

It's not the intention to go renewables that bother me, it's the arbitrary target and unseemly haste.

It looks more like virtue signaling than establishing a reliable and affordable grid.

Bowen won't be around if it all goes wrong, he'll probably be a consultant for the coal/gas/nuclear industry.

That is exactly what I have been saying, if they are committed to it, they had to go hard and fast, or the coal generators will start falling to bits.
Add to that the fact that industries that use fossil fuel, had to decide whether it was worth continuing and installing renewables and that was on top of the fact some processes can't be converted to electric operation, if they couldn't or didn't convert they will be penalised.
Why would they bother, unless they have a huge profit margin? Send the processing to Indonesia.
It is fortunate that Labor won the election, at least the decisions wont be hammered in the media and things will get addressed, the coalition would not be able to take any corrective action and be ause of their nuclear brain fart, anything they did would be seen as anti renewables.
Interesting times indeed.

 

[Smurf1976]

I wonder if the Government will press Snowy to underwrite the supply contract with Kurri Kurri?

On the physical side there's a lot of difficulties there.

Best explained by saying Tomago's load is 850MW.

For those not in the industry or with a background in electrical things that's massive. It's 9.7% of all electricity used in NSW on average and it's the largest individual electrical load in Australia.

That high consumption isn't because the company is inefficient or wasteful, it's just the physics involved with the process. In simplified layman's terms producing aluminium metal is akin to reversing rust, it's starting with an oxide and turning it into pure metal and the physics involved requires a serious amount of electricity.

That's how all aluminium is produced worldwide, it's the practical way of doing it, but if we want industry of that sort in Australia then quite simply we need to be able to supply the required electricity at a price that enables the operation to be viable in the global market.

The economic benefit to Australia isn't employment, it employs some people obviously but that's not the main point, but rather it's the exports. There's about $2.4 billion a year worth of metal produced each year in this plant, and the whole lot of that is either exported or directly replaces what would otherwise be imported. That's it's primary economic benefit - employment is just a bonus albeit an important one for those involved.

On the technical side there's also a major benefit to the system in having a large load like that able to be immediately tripped should a generation or transmission fault occur. The practical outcome of that is protecting the system and supply to other consumers.

 

[Smurf1976]

the coal generators will start falling to bits.

Already happening.

I've confirmed it's in the public domain so I'll name Yallourn unit 2 as one of those I was referring to in a previous post.

Just after it passed the 50 year mark the turbine decided it'd had enough, that's it.

Latest I hear is Energy Australia who own it are poking around in China looking for a second hand one from a decommissioned Chinese power station that'll fit. In any normal circumstance this would be permanent closure, it's just not worthwhile patching up 50 year old plant, but we aren't in normal circumstances.

Unit capacity as per original design is 350MW, in practice runs to 360.

For those unfamiliar this is a coal-fired plant, normally in reasonably constant operation, located in Victoria about 145km from Melbourne by road. Coal is supplied from the Yallourn mine nearby.

If anyone happens to have a steam turbine stored in the back shed, EA might like to hear from you.

 

[sptrawler]

On the physical side there's a lot of difficulties there.

Best explained by saying Tomago's load is 850MW.

For those not in the industry or with a background in electrical things that's massive. It's 9.7% of all electricity used in NSW on average and it's the largest individual electrical load in Australia.

That high consumption isn't because the company is inefficient or wasteful, it's just the physics involved with the process. In simplified layman's terms producing aluminium metal is akin to reversing rust, it's starting with an oxide and turning it into pure metal and the physics involved requires a serious amount of electricity.

That's how all aluminium is produced worldwide, it's the practical way of doing it, but if we want industry of that sort in Australia then quite simply we need to be able to supply the required electricity at a price that enables the operation to be viable in the global market.

The economic benefit to Australia isn't employment, it employs some people obviously but that's not the main point, but rather it's the exports. There's about $2.4 billion a year worth of metal produced each year in this plant, and the whole lot of that is either exported or directly replaces what would otherwise be imported. That's it's primary economic benefit - employment is just a bonus albeit an important one for those involved.

On the technical side there's also a major benefit to the system in having a large load like that able to be immediately tripped should a generation or transmission fault occur. The practical outcome of that is protecting the system and supply to other consumers.

I didn't realise how big the load was, the other issue is Kurri Kurri would struggle due to fuel constraints, it really is a big problem.

At least it sounds like Chris Bowen is starting to understand the enormity of the problem, but it doesn't inspire confidence, when you hear him using phrases like:


"Once we get to 82 per cent renewable energy in 2030, which I am working towards achieving, and have some confidence we will achieve, then we'll keep going," he said.


"Obviously, 82 is a high number … When you get to a number like 82, and then to continue to go after that, you've got to keep working. The low-hanging fruit disappears."

Hopefully the low hanging fruit isn't a major chunk of our processing industries, because once they have gone, getting them back will never happen.

 

[sptrawler]

Already happening.

I've confirmed it's in the public domain so I'll name Yallourn unit 2 as one of those I was referring to in a previous post.

Just after it passed the 50 year mark the turbine decided it'd had enough, that's it.

Latest I hear is Energy Australia who own it are poking around in China looking for a second hand one from a decommissioned Chinese power station that'll fit. In any normal circumstance this would be permanent closure, it's just not worthwhile patching up 50 year old plant, but we aren't in normal circumstances.

Unit capacity as per original design is 350MW, in practice runs to 360.

For those unfamiliar this is a coal-fired plant, normally in reasonably constant operation, located in Victoria about 145km from Melbourne by road. Coal is supplied from the Yallourn mine nearby.

If anyone happens to have a steam turbine stored in the back shed, EA might like to hear from you.

That is mental, this is really becoming a circus, the problem is that it isn't funny, but it is entertaining.

 

[IFocus]

Already happening.

I've confirmed it's in the public domain so I'll name Yallourn unit 2 as one of those I was referring to in a previous post.

Just after it passed the 50 year mark the turbine decided it'd had enough, that's it.

Latest I hear is Energy Australia who own it are poking around in China looking for a second hand one from a decommissioned Chinese power station that'll fit. In any normal circumstance this would be permanent closure, it's just not worthwhile patching up 50 year old plant,

50 year service great engineering great maintenance regime that’s impressive

 

[Smurf1976]

50 year service great engineering great maintenance regime that’s impressive

Absolutely.

In service 15 July 1975.

Since then approximately 360,000 running hours since commissioning with over 114,000,000 MWh generated.

So that's running 82.2% of the time since 1975 with an average output when running of 317 MW or ~90% of capacity. It has certainly been pushed fairly hard throughout its life.

Tripped at approximately 13:37 on 26 August 2025.

For those for whom the following is of any interest:

Generating plant manufactured by Toshiba.

Boiler manufactured by John Thompson. Working pressure 12,800 kPa.

Unit 1 (still in operation) is technically identical.

Unit 3 & 4 are different specs and built later (in service 1981).

 

[sptrawler]

The Toshiba units are light years ahead of the Parson's units, which are a similar age and are now all shut down.

 

[sptrawler]

@Smurf1976 thanks for the post on Yallourn 2, I found a good article describing the age issues.
I guess Chris is starting to understand the issues, it will be interesting to see if he carries on at the next election, the stress must be getting to him.
It is getting to the point where it is too late to build new plant, renewables will take years to be able to carry the load, meanwhile the generators are dying of old age.
What a mess, reality catching up with ideology yet again.
There is going to have to be a huge amount of money poured in soon, right at a time when we are trying to reduce debt, certainly is an interesting situation.
It's a shame we don't have a battery manufacturing plant, it would be working flat out.

Can Yallourn Hold On Until 2028?

Yallourn Power Station is running out of road. With outages stacking up and reliability crumbling, can this coal giant hold on until 2028?

utilizer.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

Well is this the start of something?

Lol the Government has no oposition, so why not make one?

Why the biggest threat to net zero is right-wing misinformation

The social licence of renewables is being attacked by professional and heavily resourced networks with a vested interest in delaying the energy transition.

www.afr.com

 

[sptrawler]

The concentrated solar storage facility has finally been laid to rest apparently.
They would have learned a lot over the years of its operation.

$2.2 billion solar plant in California turned off after years of wasted money: ‘Never lived up to its promises’

The hugely expensive Ivanpah Solar Power Facility was completed in 2014, but it’s now dated and inefficient. It’s set to close in 2026.

nypost.com

 

[SirRumpole]

The concentrated solar storage facility has finally been laid to rest apparently.
They would have learned a lot over the years of its operation.

$2.2 billion solar plant in California turned off after years of wasted money: ‘Never lived up to its promises’

The hugely expensive Ivanpah Solar Power Facility was completed in 2014, but it’s now dated and inefficient. It’s set to close in 2026.

nypost.com

Thats what happens when you listen to blue sky startups looking for government grants. Its not their money so they don't research the issue properly.

They probably got caught with improvements in PV, but I wonder if they saw that coming and pressed on anyway.

 

[basilio]

There have been a number of posts highlighting the challenges of running 50 year old coal plants. Spot on and exactly why moving very quickly to mass renewables plus battery/hydro back up has to be the priority.

Could we return to fossil fuel power sources?

Of course - but it would be much more expensive than firmed renewables. (And nuclear doesn't even get on the board )

That analysis has been done. Dig into the figures.


Analysis

Electricity generation costs would be up to 50% higher if Australia stuck with coal and gas only​

Patrick Commins Economics editor
Griffith University experts reveal the 30% increase in consumer power bills since 2021 would have been worse under fossil fuel-only scenario

Wed 24 Sep 2025 20.00 EDT

The cost of generating electricity would be up to 50% higher today if Australia had relied solely on coal and gas instead of pursuing renewables, according to new analysis.
Right-leaning politicians and climate deniers have seized on the 30% increase in electricity bills since 2021 to call for new coal-fired power plants to replace renewable projects, claiming it would bring down energy bills.

To interrogate these claims, Paul Simshauser and Joel Gilmore from Griffith University’s Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research modelled a counterfactual scenario where resource-rich Queensland had ignored the global push towards net zero and climate science and instead pursued an electricity grid based on fossil fuels from 2005 – when coal and gas were “unambiguously the lowest cost technologies”.

Electricity generation costs would be up to 50% higher if Australia stuck with coal and gas only

Griffith University experts reveal the 30% increase in consumer power bills since 2021 would have been worse under fossil fuel-only scenario

www.theguardian.com

 

[basilio]

Thats what happens when you listen to blue sky startups looking for government grants. Its not their money so they don't research the issue properly.

They probably got caught with improvements in PV, but I wonder if they saw that coming and pressed on anyway.

What a beat up. Yep that technology has been overtaken by huge advances in PV, Wind and battery technology. These are simply far cheaper ways to generate power. But the fact that renewable energy has now been well proven and is far more cost effective than fossil fuels is just ignored by most of the story.

 

[sptrawler]

There are some very pertinent points in this article.

The government provided a media management masterclass on climate

As a nation, it's as if we're arguing about where to have a family holiday in 2035, and whether we fly economy or business. Meanwhile, nobody can agree on dinner tonight.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SirRumpole]

There are some very pertinent points in this article.

The government provided a media management masterclass on climate

As a nation, it's as if we're arguing about where to have a family holiday in 2035, and whether we fly economy or business. Meanwhile, nobody can agree on dinner tonight.

www.abc.net.au

Good article.

It's all pie in the sky from the government now, no plan whatsoever.