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The future of energy generation and storage

Interesting video claiming that 100% renewables and storage is possible but very expensive, but 95% renewable with storage is far cheaper than comparable networks.
Key thing is none of this is generic.

Looking at the Australian context we've plenty of examples historically of power generation options that were technically workable and at face value seemed reasonable enough that serious effort was put into evaluation of them in detail. Ultimately though they turned out not to be the best option once that evaluation was done and it turned out that some issue, most commonly geology, resulted in higher costs than had been assumed.

On the other hand, that process is also where the good ones came from. Start with the high level identification of the options, do a proper evaluation, and just as some will fail others will pass.

For an example of one that some here would likely have a financial interest in, since AGL owns it:


Zoom out and you will immediately see the context that this is located on an island but it's an island only just off the coast. It's also in a very urban location. That however isn't the end of it, there's more to the magic than that.

To the immediate west you will note two bays that are not natural, those being the cooling water intake to the two power stations. Meanwhile hot water is discharged just out the front as can be seen here (note there are three outlets in total)

https://www.google.com/maps/@-34.80...try=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDcyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

All that had to be done to create that was to build a simple causeway which prevents the hot water flowing back to the intake and forces it to take the long way around thus providing effective cooling. That causeway also serves as the road access to the island.

Reason I mention it was this was one of the "obvious" sites identified a long time ago, indeed it was reserved for a future power station back in 1947, construction ultimately commencing in 1963. Because even without satellite images, engineers correctly spotted the situation I've described and noted the urban location along with navigable water made it a very suitable site for a thermal (fossil fuel) power station. Very close to the largest load in the state, cooling water right out the front with no major infrastructure required, and it wouldn't be difficult to get fuel to the site.

All that really changed over the years was the fuel itself.

Original assumption in 1947 was it'd be coal delivered by ship or train.

By the time construction commenced, oil had become a cheaper and thus preferred option and construction indeed commenced on 'A' station as oil-fired steam plant. Noting for the record 'A' station consisted of 4 x 120MW units, each with their own dedicated boiler.

Then during the construction period, natural gas was discovered at Moomba (central Australia) and ultimately piped to the Adelaide metro area with supply commencing two years after the power station commenced operation. The boilers were then converted, one at a time, to use gas.

So that's an example of one that worked out. An "obvious" site that, upon proper investigation, didn't turn up any major geological or other problem and which was ultimately built. There's plenty more like that, indeed it's the history of most of Australia's power stations.

The well known Yallourn plant in Victoria, the original stations, were much the same. Land that had a river out the front and a coal mine out the back, literally. Can't get much better than that, it was an other "obvious" one, albeit with some hassles in keeping the river out of the coal mine but those were solvable.

On the other hand this one was not to be: https://www.google.com/maps/@-37.86...try=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDcyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

Companies were formed, holes were dug and ultimately some coal was mined but ultimately geology made it not impossible, just uneconomic despite being just 13km from the Melbourne CBD and 7.5km from what was already (since 1918) a power generation site then using imported coal.

Incidentally that site does have a notable point in terms of who was involved, notably Herbert Hoover. That Hoover yes, later US President. Once you know that detail, all of a sudden his enthusiasm for rural electrification and hydro development as President starts to fall into place.

Point being historically we got to the best solutions not by deciding on the energy source first but the opposite. Look at all the options and if the best one happens to be coal, hydro or whatever well do that then.

The only thing that really skewed that is if there was some grander plan. Eg the Dartmouth dam (Vic) was primarily built as a water storage for agricultural and town supply. It does generate electricity from a power station at the base of the dam and a smaller one downstream, but ultimately water is the primary reason it was built. That being so, other sources of electricity weren't an alternative to it, the "grand plan" was mostly about water with the hydro-electricity just a useful bonus.

The same rationally applies today. Look at all the options, and that means specific projects not just choosing a resource, and see what comes out of it.

Once that's done and proper numbers (financial and electrical) are available, then it's possible to sensibly evaluate them. That's when it's possible to have the public debate as to whether it's worth spending a bit more on an electricity scheme that also secures Sydney's water supply for a larger population, or whether it's worth spending more to avoid a particular option on environmental grounds be that due to emissions to the atmosphere or anything else. Or whether it's worth biasing toward local resources and employment, or whether it's worth biasing toward regional development or whatever.

Point being without the numbers it's impossible to have that discussion, since it's a very different thing to say option x will cost 10% more but comes with these benefits and is thus worth considering in that context versus if it costs 200% more and is clearly unaffordable.

So that's an answer without a real answer but that's the rational process. Identify the specific options, evaluate, make decisions.

Getting closer to an answer well going fully renewable in some places is easier than in others. Tasmania is always the standout at a state level, I can say with confidence that renewables do beat fossils on cost in Tasmania. Between wind and hydro, the state has more than adequate resources, plus solar works better than most would assume as long as it's very carefully located. On the other side of the coin it's a relatively expensive place to be using coal or gas.

There are also very good renewable resources, that is wind, solar and hydro, in northern Queensland and on that I'll add the former Queensland Electricity Commission did put some serious work into investigating some (but not all) of those until politics put a stop to it. I'm willing to speculate though that going 100% renewable at least for Mackay and areas further north, would very plausibly stack up on economic grounds and a very high % renewables should stack up for Qld as a whole. Not due to ideology, just due to high grade resources and a load profile that's conveniently well suited to them.

At the other end of the scale there's Victoria. Resources aren't great and the load profile's seriously painful, being substantially inverse to the output of renewable resources. Beyond what can be achieved within those limits, plus leaning on Tasmania, the rest gets difficult big time.

Then there's the politics. Having a high grade, economic resource is one thing but it won't help if it's not allowed to be developed.

One thing there is almost universal agreement on is that offshore wind isn't economic. You'll find very few who disagree on that one, CSIRO being among those whose data shows it to be high cost. One one hand the resource is good over water but it's the cost of developing and maintaining it that's the killer financially. What's far more attractive are pointy bits of land sticking out into the water or islands. That way you get the benefits of offshore without actually being offshore. Downside - you'll also run head first into protestors. :2twocents
 
Adding to the previous post, that's not a deliberate attempt on my part to not answer the question. It's just saying that specific projects or occurrences of a resource tend to be more relevant than the resource itself.

For an extreme example of that, there is coal in metropolitan Adelaide indeed there's coal under the CBD itself at the northern end.

Lat time anyone did a serious study into coal-fired generation in SA however, three options stood out as clearly cheaper:

1. Mine inferior but adequate quality coal near Kingston SE (in SA), burn it next to the mine and transmit the electricity 250km to Adelaide.

2. Mine the coal in Victoria and transmit 800km in a straight line, or about 900km via a more practical route that includes going through metropolitan Melbourne itself via existing lines.

3. Mine the coal in NSW and ship it, on an actual ship, to Adelaide and burn it in a power station at the port.

4. Use the poor quality coal about 100km north of Adelaide, burning it near the mine and transmitting the electricity.

Those weren't the only options but they were all clearly superior to mining the coal that exists right next to the load in the metropolitan area. Partly that's due to metro land having value for other uses, a lot of it though is just due to the resource itself being inferior.

What was never really sorted was which of those was the best. They were all clearly better than the metropolitan area coal though, so there was no point considering that one any further.

FWIW contrary to popular belief high grade coal does exist in SA and a major mining company was engaged, effectively as a consultant, to put a cost on mining it. Long story short nope, it was clearly not worth progressing any further with, it was just too far out of bounds financially. Reason = actual middle of nowhere, no roads, no rail, no town, no water, etc. Had it been gold then someone might be interested in mining it, but not coal when there are many cheaper options to obtain the same thing.

What was also clear was none of those in SA could match the cost of coal in the eastern states. That the idea of mining it in Vic and transmitting the electricity, or mining it in NSW and physically shipping the coal, were serious contenders says it all. No matter what SA does with coal, it's fundamentally not a cheap place to use coal. That being so, and bearing in mind no substantial hydro resources in the state, it means other options such as oil, gas, wind and solar do have a better chance of stacking up economically in SA than they do in many other places.

That isn't unique to SA. BHP and Rio Tinto gave coal a serious look to power the mines in the Pilbara many decades ago. Given they're in the business of mining they not unreasonably had the idea of back loading ships and bringing coal in from an external source, either from their own mines or someone else's, and using that to run a power station at the port, then transmitting the electricity to the iron ore mines. Technically doable, there was no problem with that aspect of it, but the economics failed when compared to gas, so gas it was. :2twocents
 
Adding to the previous post, that's not a deliberate attempt on my part to not answer the question. It's just saying that specific projects or occurrences of a resource tend to be more relevant than the resource itself.

For an extreme example of that, there is coal in metropolitan Adelaide indeed there's coal under the CBD itself at the northern end.

Lat time anyone did a serious study into coal-fired generation in SA however, three options stood out as clearly cheaper:

1. Mine inferior but adequate quality coal near Kingston SE (in SA), burn it next to the mine and transmit the electricity 250km to Adelaide.

2. Mine the coal in Victoria and transmit 800km in a straight line, or about 900km via a more practical route that includes going through metropolitan Melbourne itself via existing lines.

3. Mine the coal in NSW and ship it, on an actual ship, to Adelaide and burn it in a power station at the port.

4. Use the poor quality coal about 100km north of Adelaide, burning it near the mine and transmitting the electricity.

Those weren't the only options but they were all clearly superior to mining the coal that exists right next to the load in the metropolitan area. Partly that's due to metro land having value for other uses, a lot of it though is just due to the resource itself being inferior.

What was never really sorted was which of those was the best. They were all clearly better than the metropolitan area coal though, so there was no point considering that one any further.

FWIW contrary to popular belief high grade coal does exist in SA and a major mining company was engaged, effectively as a consultant, to put a cost on mining it. Long story short nope, it was clearly not worth progressing any further with, it was just too far out of bounds financially. Reason = actual middle of nowhere, no roads, no rail, no town, no water, etc. Had it been gold then someone might be interested in mining it, but not coal when there are many cheaper options to obtain the same thing.

What was also clear was none of those in SA could match the cost of coal in the eastern states. That the idea of mining it in Vic and transmitting the electricity, or mining it in NSW and physically shipping the coal, were serious contenders says it all. No matter what SA does with coal, it's fundamentally not a cheap place to use coal. That being so, and bearing in mind no substantial hydro resources in the state, it means other options such as oil, gas, wind and solar do have a better chance of stacking up economically in SA than they do in many other places.

That isn't unique to SA. BHP and Rio Tinto gave coal a serious look to power the mines in the Pilbara many decades ago. Given they're in the business of mining they not unreasonably had the idea of back loading ships and bringing coal in from an external source, either from their own mines or someone else's, and using that to run a power station at the port, then transmitting the electricity to the iron ore mines. Technically doable, there was no problem with that aspect of it, but the economics failed when compared to gas, so gas it was. :2twocents
I just wish we could go back to that pragmatic reasoning rather than having the shrill loony lefties yelling at us about banning coal and gas or rent seeking companies selling snake oil about 'energy breakthroughs' to the politicians.
 
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From the article:
Spanish authorities said in June that an investigation found that the country's electric grid was unable to handle a surge in voltage, which triggered small grid failures in the south of Spain that cascaded into larger ones.

The chain reaction eventually brought down the electric system in the two Iberian nations.

Authorities didn't explain what caused the initial voltage surge
Other measures under review include a possible interconnection between Portugal and Morocco.

Interconnections are high voltage transmission lines that link the electricity systems of different countries, allowing cross-border power exchanges.

Spain's interconnections with Morocco and France were critical to restoring power after the April blackout.
Portuguese authorities said they would increase the number of power stations with autonomous restart capability from two to four.

The so-called black start power stations helped Portugal restore its power independently from Spain after the blackout.
Authorities said they would spend €25 million to reinforce back-up energy sources such as solar panels and batteries at hospitals and other critical infrastructure.

An independent panel of European Union experts is investigating what caused the blackout.

A preliminary report published earlier this month reached similar conclusions to the Spanish investigation, that an unusual series of voltage surges in Spain and a cascading series of electricity disconnections likely triggered the event.

A final report is due in October.
 
Last I heard it was bad vibes in the wires. :smuggrin:
They are definitely not saying much, but as I mentioned a long while ago, it will be interesting to see how they 'black start' a renewable grid heavily reliant on electronics over inertia.
It sounds as though Portugal is going to install black start generators, at its fossil fuel power stations, after the experience of a major system collapse and having to rely on France and Morocco to get them going again.
I would guess they already know what happened, they are probably trying to word a report to explain why it won't happen again, having a mish mash of millions of bits of electronic equipment trying to work together in perfect synch, would be a nightmare IMO
 
On the subject of energy, I noticed one of my pet 'never to buy' companies, is hitting the headlines also a few home truth's are coming out and quite possibly another Santos mess in the making.
There is one thing for sure, having Abu Dhabi and a U.S private equity firm owning our future firming lifeline, would be an interesting prospect. :rolleyes:


The whole article is a good read, well done ABC, it's not very often I say that. :xyxthumbs


From the article:
A chronic underperformer for decades, Santos has angered not just investors, but politicians and a large section of the business community for its primary role in denuding eastern Australia of gas supplies.

A decade ago, it rolled the dice on an ambitious plan to double the size of its gas export facility on Curtis Island off the Queensland coast near Gladstone, and wrote lucrative long-term contracts with Asian buyers.

But the gas it thought was available simply wasn't there. When it couldn't find enough to fulfil its obligations, it exported gas that ordinarily would have been diverted to the domestic market.

There is ample room for scepticism.

Already a red-hot political issue given the impact soaring gas prices had on power bills and the cost of living, the idea of handing over control of vital and problematic energy infrastructure to a foreign government would have alarm bells ringing in the halls of power.

The demise of Australian manufacturing since the turn of the century, and the impact that has had on employment and productivity, has been accelerated by the soaring cost of energy.
Unless that is fixed, it is difficult to see how the government's signature Future Made in Australia policy could ever possibly be achieved.

And then there is the energy transition. Gas, always considered the transition fuel, will need to fill the breach for longer than originally anticipated. Years of ongoing gas shortages simply cannot be countenanced.

For the moment, the structure of Santos's proposed new ownership is opaque. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company have teamed up with an American private equity firm called Carlyle.

Exactly what role Carlyle will play is uncertain. Like most private equity groups, the firm has a deserved reputation as a ruthless operator that extracts maximum profits before churning assets back to the market.

It is possible it is in place to help with raising global finance for the deal. Or, as an American firm, it might be there to open doors in Washington given the promising gas fields Santos holds in Alaska.

Local observers, however, were stunned that the Gulf States investors didn't team up with an Australian operator to help negotiate their way across the regulatory hurdles.
 
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The circus continues and Chris now says fossil fuel can't be wished away, I think that's what everyone has been telling him, he is the one who set the target. Lol
This is going to end badly.

 
While travelling there
New Zealand solution..not so easy in Australia:
1000032232.jpg


1000032231.jpg

I just noted that the sustainability is not 100%, local thermal pools and geysers died in the years since the project started, and a new thermal park was created artificially by boring new springs..
Still a nice way.
Not so sure about the smell or the sulphur in the air
And a funny fact, one local thermal spa could not be visited today, as they had a power outage..no comments 🥴
 
I just noted that the sustainability is not 100%, local thermal pools and geysers died in the years since the project started, and a new thermal park was created artificially by boring new springs..
Still a nice way.
Something that wasn't understood when these systems were first set up, and NZ has been doing this for decades now, is that it's sustainable to a point but only to a point.

That is, there's a maximum extraction rate. The wells will deliver far more than that, but bad things happen if the sustainable rate is exceeded on an average basis (doesn't matter if it's a few hours or even days, matters a real lot if it's exceeded for years).

So it's a bit like a forest. There's a rate at which timber can be harvested sustainably but there's a definite limit. It's possible to exceed that limit in a physical sense, it's possible to cut all the trees down yes, but it ends badly if that's done.

So geothermal works as long as humans correctly assess the limit to a particular resource and make sure not to exceed it.

Geothermal map of Australia:

1753868073710.png


Brown lines on the map are existing electricity transmission.

In the Australian context the problem is the geothermal we've got mostly isn't that hot, and it's also lacking water. That said, exceptions do exist, there are instances of hot water being obtained from the ground in Victoria and Tasmania.

It's not something that's seen enough research in my view but my thinking is the best use might not be for electricity but rather as a means of heating buildings. . The existence of a few "hot spots" close enough to Melbourne, and those being the wet ones, creates that possibility bearing in mind most heating of buildings in Melbourne at present uses gas.

Technically the concept is straightforward enough. It's simply a case of insulated flow and return pipes being placed in the ground, same manner as any other pipe, and using the hot water not for direct consumption as such but to transfer the heat to the inside air or mains water for use in showers etc.

Technically that's a very proven concept and quite a few such systems exist overseas. Perhaps the most famous being New York, since visible above ground parts of the system appear prominently in the background to countless movies, although that one's using fuel combustion in boilers to produce the steam. Examples of doing it with geothermal heat exist in Boise (USA), Reykjavik (Iceland) and an assortment of cities in Europe most significantly Paris.

At the user end it just means having conventional hydronic heating installed in the building but without need for a boiler. To produce hot water it's a heat exchange arrangement - a copper coil inside the tank basically.

In the Australian context Melbourne and nearby (Geelong etc) is the obvious place due to climate requiring substantial heating, relatively continuous urban development within the metropolitan area, and the availability of a heat source.

Key advantage of using it directly to heat buildings and provide hot water is it doesn't need to be a high grade resource, 80 degrees is all that's needed, and in the case of Victoria that'd be directly supplying a major end use of energy.

Noting for clarity the idea is theoretically possible but I'm being somewhat speculative here - there'd need to be proper geological work, drilling and so on done to confirm it. :2twocents
 
Noting for clarity the idea is theoretically possible but I'm being somewhat speculative here - there'd need to be proper geological work, drilling and so on done to confirm it. :2twocents
It is like most things, great in theory, if its usage became widespread, would there be a consequence for heat loss in the earths core eventually?
 
It is like most things, great in theory, if its usage became widespread, would there be a consequence for heat loss in the earths core eventually?
That has to happen by the law of Thermodynamics, but eventually is a long time. ;)

One thing that needs to be thought about if it hasn't been already, is putting Stirling engines deep into boreholes.

You don't need enough heat to turn water into steam, just a temperature difference between two points.

Yes, Stirling engines don't produce a lot of power for their size, but if most of the engine is underground, it wouldn't matter.
 
That has to happen by the law of Thermodynamics, but eventually is a long time. ;)

One thing that needs to be thought about if it hasn't been already, is putting Stirling engines deep into boreholes.

You don't need enough heat to turn water into steam, just a temperature difference between two points.

Yes, Stirling engines don't produce a lot of power for their size, but if most of the engine is underground, it wouldn't matter.
Had a smile, while in the middle of these thermal steam regions, a local petrol station had a set of EV chargers coupled to a container which really looked like a diesel generator.
I guess bringing power to recharge multiple EVs was a bit beyond the grid capacity there
 
It is like most things, great in theory, if its usage became widespread, would there be a consequence for heat loss in the earths core eventually?
Ultimately all power pollutes and there are no exceptions to that. It wouldn't be without any consequence.

That said, it would seem to be far less pressing matter than running short of gas. :2twocents
 
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