The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

REN said: “Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as ‘induced atmospheric vibration’. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.”

Suffice to say I find it very hard to accept that someone has already undertaken a proper investigation and reached that conclusion unless there's a known pre-existing vulnerability that hasn't been addressed.

Unless there's obvious physical damage, eg the transmission line is physically destroyed, then investigations take quite a bit longer than that normally.

 

[sptrawler]

Suffice to say I find it very hard to accept that someone has already undertaken a proper investigation and reached that conclusion unless there's a known pre-existing vulnerability that hasn't been addressed.

Unless there's obvious physical damage, eg the transmission line is physically destroyed, then investigations take quite a bit longer than that normally.

There will be a lot of hand wringing and work arounds going on over here ATM.
It's one thing using old alternators as synchrnous condensers, but it's hard to get them working again if you need a couple of hundred megawatts to kick start your system.
Interesting times.

 

[Smurf1976]

Some charts on the situation in Portugal and Spain:

First starting with Portugal as that's the less complex of the two:

To explain this chart what you're looking at is a full 24 hour period which includes the rather obvious system collapse.

Orange = Import from Spain
Light yellow = solar
Grey = thermal (mostly gas in practice but also includes oil etc)
Light green = wind
Blue = hydro
Dark green = biomass

Now on the chart there's the thick black line, and also a thinner grey line. What's going on there is the thick black line indicates demand from consumers in Portugal. The thin grey line indicates demand + energy used for storage (mostly pumped hydro). Noting for clarity that Portugal has both conventional (dams on a river) and pumped hydro.

So immediately before the system collapse demand was about 6000MW plus about 2000MW used for hydro pumping. Majority of supply was import from Spain, solar and wind with some but not a lot of hydro, thermal (mostly gas) and biomass generation running.

Portugal's connections to elsewhere are in practice with Spain.

Noting this is a graph from a publicly available website and is not intended for engineering analysis, it ought be treated in that context. That the chart doesn't show it all going straight to zero immediately, there's a bend in the line around the 1500MW mark, but in practice I expect that's a limitation of the website data not what happened in reality. In practice it was most likely seconds at most from 6000MW to zero.

Now for Spain:

The not total but substantial system collapse is immediately visible. Explaining the chart in detail:

I first draw your attention to the zero line with 0 indicated at the left, and which is more readily apparent after the system collapse. Anything below this line is export to other countries or is hydro pumping load. Anything above this line is generation and consumption in Spain.

Below the line the colour code is (in order from top down)
Lighter blue = pumping
Darker blue = export to France
Red = export to Morocco
Green = export to Portugal
Not readily visible but there's also a very minor export to Andorra.

Now above the zero line, the colour code in order from top down is as follows and also here I'm showing output immediately before and after the incident.

From top to bottom as they appear on the chart.

Yellow line shows consumption. Generation excess to that is for export or pumping.

Source (colour on chart) = before | after

Biomass (purple) = 377 | 376
Solar thermal (red) = 1499 | 917
Solar PV (orange) = 18,068 | 6778
Wind (green) = 3646 | 2410
Hydro (blue) = 3171 | 1214
Cogen & Waste (light purple) = 1376 | 683
Gas turbine (dark red) = 81 | 105
Diesel engines (grey) = 261 | 266
Steam (oil/gas) (olive) = 115 | 114
Combined cycle gas (light yellow) = 1633 | 1061
Coal (brown) = 230 | 0
Nuclear (dark blue) = 3388 | 0
Pumped storage (light blue) = 29 | 30

Not in use immediately before or after the incident, but on the chart at other times:

Pale red = import from Morocco. There's a bit shown right at the top circa 3am.

Blue-purple = import from France. There's a significant amount at the top of the chart after the incident after 17:00

Noted that a few hours after the incident consumption appears to exceed generation. That would be a data error in practice, since physically it's not possible.

Nothing further to add at this stage.

 

[SirRumpole]

Some charts on the situation in Portugal and Spain:

First starting with Portugal as that's the less complex of the two:

View attachment 198553

To explain this chart what you're looking at is a full 24 hour period which includes the rather obvious system collapse.

Orange = Import from Spain
Light yellow = solar
Grey = thermal (mostly gas in practice but also includes oil etc)
Light green = wind
Blue = hydro
Dark green = biomass

Now on the chart there's the thick black line, and also a thinner grey line. What's going on there is the thick black line indicates demand from consumers in Portugal. The thin grey line indicates demand + energy used for storage (mostly pumped hydro). Noting for clarity that Portugal has both conventional (dams on a river) and pumped hydro.

So immediately before the system collapse demand was about 6000MW plus about 2000MW used for hydro pumping. Majority of supply was import from Spain, solar and wind with some but not a lot of hydro, thermal (mostly gas) and biomass generation running.

Portugal's connections to elsewhere are in practice with Spain.

Noting this is a graph from a publicly available website and is not intended for engineering analysis, it ought be treated in that context. That the chart doesn't show it all going straight to zero immediately, there's a bend in the line around the 1500MW mark, but in practice I expect that's a limitation of the website data not what happened in reality. In practice it was most likely seconds at most from 6000MW to zero.

Now for Spain:

View attachment 198554

The not total but substantial system collapse is immediately visible. Explaining the chart in detail:

I first draw your attention to the zero line with 0 indicated at the left, and which is more readily apparent after the system collapse. Anything below this line is export to other countries or is hydro pumping load. Anything above this line is generation and consumption in Spain.

Below the line the colour code is (in order from top down)
Lighter blue = pumping
Darker blue = export to France
Red = export to Morocco
Green = export to Portugal
Not readily visible but there's also a very minor export to Andorra.

Now above the zero line, the colour code in order from top down is as follows and also here I'm showing output immediately before and after the incident.

From top to bottom as they appear on the chart.

Yellow line shows consumption. Generation excess to that is for export or pumping.

Source (colour on chart) = before | after

Biomass (purple) = 377 | 376
Solar thermal (red) = 1499 | 917
Solar PV (orange) = 18,068 | 6778
Wind (green) = 3646 | 2410
Hydro (blue) = 3171 | 1214
Cogen & Waste (light purple) = 1376 | 683
Gas turbine (dark red) = 81 | 105
Diesel engines (grey) = 261 | 266
Steam (oil/gas) (olive) = 115 | 114
Combined cycle gas (light yellow) = 1633 | 1061
Coal (brown) = 230 | 0
Nuclear (dark blue) = 3388 | 0
Pumped storage (light blue) = 29 | 30

Not in use immediately before or after the incident, but on the chart at other times:

Pale red = import from Morocco. There's a bit shown right at the top circa 3am.

Blue-purple = import from France. There's a significant amount at the top of the chart after the incident after 17:00

Noted that a few hours after the incident consumption appears to exceed generation. That would be a data error in practice, since physically it's not possible.

Nothing further to add at this stage.

Seems hard to believe that a "natural" occurrence could cause such a disruption.

Maybe hacking or someone pressed the wrong button....

 

[qldfrog]

Seems hard to believe that a "natural" occurrence could cause such a disruption.

Maybe hacking or someone pressed the wrong button....

Or system so unstable frequency wise that a small mishap and the inability for wind and worse solar to recover ,crashed the lot:
Look how quickly your rooftop solar disengage in case of frequency issue, multiply this with millions of them previously peaking all down to zero in a second
It is like missing a gear change on a cycle...and if you are riding up a hill...
Mr @Smurf1976 will give us the details in a coming days i have no doubt

 

[SirRumpole]

Or system so unstable frequency wise that a small mishap and the inability for wind and worse solar to recover ,crashed the lot:
Look how quickly your rooftop solar disengage in case of frequency issue, multiply this with millions of them previously peaking all down to zero in a second
It is like missing a gear change on a cycle...and if you are riding up a hill...
Mr @Smurf1976 will give us the details in a coming days i have no doubt

Whatever the cause , it will be a big lesson for us as we head toward "net zero".

 

[sptrawler]

Or system so unstable frequency wise that a small mishap and the inability for wind and worse solar to recover ,crashed the lot:
Look how quickly your rooftop solar disengage in case of frequency issue, multiply this with millions of them previously peaking all down to zero in a second
It is like missing a gear change on a cycle...and if you are riding up a hill...
Mr @Smurf1976 will give us the details in a coming days i have no doubt

That would be my guess, a frequency oscillation started and a domino effect took over, time will tell.

Whatever it was the big issue is getting it all back on, especially if the grid has high renewable penetration, as the article said, they were fortunate they had France to help the restoration.

A lot of the electronics controlling an extremely fragmented, multi equipment system, has to work together in a split second that isn't easy especially if the equipment comes from different suppliers and has different reaction characteristics.

Add to that, in Australia due to its size, the actual time lag due to distance, signal degradation, different signal transmission mediums, different response times of multiplexers /demultiplexers that interface with plant. different response times of batteries and hydro etc and I would guess it all becomes a real nightmare trying to set the response droop to avoid this sort of incident happening.

Just unintended consequences of a complicated grid, KISS, comes to mind IMO.

Interesting times, can't wait to hear @Smurf1976 follow ups as the story unfolds, more base load generation comes to mind.

 

[sptrawler]

Another case of buyer beware of what you are signed up for, I thought it worth putting here and in the real estate thread.

‘You feel like Darryl Kerrigan of The Castle’: How Adam got charged for his own solar power

Home owners who assumed their solar panels would help cut the cost of their electricity have just received a surprise bill, and they’re outraged.

www.theage.com.au

Angry apartment owners say they’re being charged for electricity generated by solar panels on their own roof thanks to a confidential agreement signed between their developer and the energy provider.

When they moved into the new building in Sutherland, in Sydney’s south, they assumed the solar would help with their common property electricity bills.

Instead, they’ve just been presented with a surprise bill for $28,717.06 for the past 12 months, seen by this masthead, with no indication of any reduction for the solar power, even though a sustainability report for the building attached to the contract of sale attributed hot water systems and outdoor pool heating to solar collectors.

The system is part of an embedded network arrangement (ENA), whereby infrastructure providers install systems such as electricity, water, sewerage and internet for free, or for a reduced payment, to developers’ projects, on condition they sign up their apartment buyers to service contracts, which can sometimes be well above market rates.

It is becoming increasingly common as it can mean huge savings for property developers, who would in the past have borne those costs themselves. But owners have no control over the terms of a contract that was signed at the start of the development.

An Ausgrid spokesperson said: “Ausgrid does not purchase or sell electricity. It is up to the embedded network who they purchase electricity from and how billing arrangements work for the customers within their network.” Instead, the distribution network offers a range of pricing options to electricity retailers who then decide if, what and how they will pass them on.

New NSW strata laws to come in later this year will mean that there are new disclosure requirements about embedded networks at the point of sale, three-year term limits will apply to embedded electricity supply contracts, and owners corporations will be protected against unfair contract terms.

In the case of Dwell, a 10-year contract for electricity, hot water and gas with Arc Energy was signed by the building’s then strata manager, Michael Lee of Result Strata. He affixed the Owners Corporation seal to the contract on December 1, 2023, the month before the building’s first meeting of owners, its AGM, on January 29, 2024.

Owners claim they knew nothing about the contract as it wasn’t mentioned at that meeting, according to the minutes.

A spokesperson for NSW Fair Trading said: “Fair Trading does not have powers to vary contractual arrangements entered into between parties, nor direct schemes to run their building in certain ways.”

A spokesperson for the Attorney-General’s Department said such a situation was outside their remit.

 

[basilio]

Another case of buyer beware of what you are signed up for, I thought it worth putting here and in the real estate thread.

‘You feel like Darryl Kerrigan of The Castle’: How Adam got charged for his own solar power

Home owners who assumed their solar panels would help cut the cost of their electricity have just received a surprise bill, and they’re outraged.

www.theage.com.au

Angry apartment owners say they’re being charged for electricity generated by solar panels on their own roof thanks to a confidential agreement signed between their developer and the energy provider.

When they moved into the new building in Sutherland, in Sydney’s south, they assumed the solar would help with their common property electricity bills.

Instead, they’ve just been presented with a surprise bill for $28,717.06 for the past 12 months, seen by this masthead, with no indication of any reduction for the solar power, even though a sustainability report for the building attached to the contract of sale attributed hot water systems and outdoor pool heating to solar collectors.

The system is part of an embedded network arrangement (ENA), whereby infrastructure providers install systems such as electricity, water, sewerage and internet for free, or for a reduced payment, to developers’ projects, on condition they sign up their apartment buyers to service contracts, which can sometimes be well above market rates.

It is becoming increasingly common as it can mean huge savings for property developers, who would in the past have borne those costs themselves. But owners have no control over the terms of a contract that was signed at the start of the development.

An Ausgrid spokesperson said: “Ausgrid does not purchase or sell electricity. It is up to the embedded network who they purchase electricity from and how billing arrangements work for the customers within their network.” Instead, the distribution network offers a range of pricing options to electricity retailers who then decide if, what and how they will pass them on.

New NSW strata laws to come in later this year will mean that there are new disclosure requirements about embedded networks at the point of sale, three-year term limits will apply to embedded electricity supply contracts, and owners corporations will be protected against unfair contract terms.

In the case of Dwell, a 10-year contract for electricity, hot water and gas with Arc Energy was signed by the building’s then strata manager, Michael Lee of Result Strata. He affixed the Owners Corporation seal to the contract on December 1, 2023, the month before the building’s first meeting of owners, its AGM, on January 29, 2024.

Owners claim they knew nothing about the contract as it wasn’t mentioned at that meeting, according to the minutes.

A spokesperson for NSW Fair Trading said: “Fair Trading does not have powers to vary contractual arrangements entered into between parties, nor direct schemes to run their building in certain ways.”

A spokesperson for the Attorney-General’s Department said such a situation was outside their remit.

Horrible story. Another example of greed , property developers and strata managers making out like bandits.

In the case of Dwell, a 10-year contract for electricity, hot water and gas with Arc Energy was signed by the building’s then strata manager, Michael Lee of Result Strata. He affixed the Owners Corporation seal to the contract on December 1, 2023, the month before the building’s first meeting of owners, its AGM, on January 29, 2024.

Frankly I think this should be investigated as an "unconscionable contract" . This seems to fit in with the behaviour of other Strata Managers with self serving insurance and maintenance arrangements. Needs a very close look IMV and some serious action if it turns out there has been self dealing arrangements.

 

[sptrawler]

It's also a timely reminder for people to be carefull, the federal and State battery subsidies will encourage a lot of shonky operators to be chasing the work and customers will be chasing a deal, the customer needs to be very carefull what they are signing.

 

[Logique2]

Whatever the cause , it will be a big lesson for us as we head toward "net zero".

Net zero..
lights, net zero heating, net zero manufacturing industry,
net zero jobs, net zero personal wealth, net zero national S & P credit rating.

Net zero petrol / diesel motor cars / trucks.
Net zero affordable groceries.

Yes, it will be a big lesson Sir R.

And 50% of Australians are going to vote for it this weekend.

 

[qldfrog]

A very technically plausible explanation

Now to Mr @Smurf1976

 

[sptrawler]

That would be my guess, a frequency oscillation started and a domino effect took over, time will tell.

Well @qldfrog, it sounds like that's what may well have happened.

Time will tell and @Smurf1976 will no doubt get to the bottom of it.


From the left leaning Guardian, renewables rollout maybe getting ahead of technology, I think I said that before that before.

What caused the blackout in Spain and Portugal and did renewable energy play a part?

The countries boast high levels of wind and solar on their grids, leading to speculation about the robustness of the technology

www.theguardian.com

The Spanish grid is undergoing upgrades as it is unable to carry the renewable energy required. Experts have said that the grid upgrades have not matched the pace of renewables being brought online.

Pratheeksha Ramdas, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “We cannot say that high wind and solar power caused the blackout – in the days before we saw far greater amounts of renewables on the system. But greater amounts of renewables may have made it more difficult to absorb a frequency disturbance. There are many possibilities behind what can cause these: a fault in the system or a weak transmission line. It’s a lesson for other countries: there needs to be greater investment in grid-forming inverters, which can help to stabilise the grid.”

What about inertia?​

Gas and nuclear-powered electricity grids have high inertia, which is a term for the resistance of a grid to frequency changes. Renewable grids have low inertia, which when unmitigated can cause them to be less resilient to sudden shocks.

David Brayshaw, a professor of climate science and energy meteorology at the University of Reading, said: “Technical changes mean the system now has less inertia, so imbalances must be corrected more quickly. Outage events, when they occur, are likely to become more significant and widespread.


“What stands out is that the power system is changing fast – driven by renewables, electrification, and massive investment. Yet there’s limited research into how climate change will affect future power systems, or how to design grids that are truly robust.”

So if large volumes of renewables are going to be loaded on to the grid, it needs to be properly designed and invested in.

Grids need to be resilient against blackouts but governments need to balance cost against risk, as disaster-proofing the grid is expensive. Electrical grids are interconnected across countries to lower the costs and increase reliability, but this can mean a problem in one area can cause a domino effect across the entire zone.

 

[qldfrog]

Well @qldfrog, it sounds like that's what may well have happened.

Good odds we were right indeed.
The so inconvenient truth....
Sadly we will not become as rich as our predecessor Al Gore
So next step solar farms powering giant motors rotating 200t wheels running an alternator .

 

[sptrawler]

Good odds we were right indeed.
The so inconvenient truth....
Sadly we will not become as rich as our predecessor Al Gore
So next step solar farms powering giant motors rotating 200t wheels running an alternator .

Yep, spot on, the powers that be know the issues.
It is certainly interesting, I think China will cream them anyway, with gen 4 nuclear.

Where I live, they have people with metal detectors, cable sensing equipment, Ditchwitch soil vacuum equipment etc, identifying where all the underground services are.
I casually asked one of the guys "hey mate are they upgrading the power system"? He said yes.
Well the interesting part is, from my observation and background, they look like the are islanding the CBD.
Why would they be doing that on the quiet? And they have already put brand new WiFi meters on all the residential properties in the suburb.

 

[SirRumpole]

If it was an excess of solar energy that caused the grid collapse then in one way its good that solar is capable of producing all the energy required and more, the issue seems to be having the capacity to either store or dispose of the excess.

Surely that is just an engineering issue and not a reason to to demean solar power in general?

 

[qldfrog]

If it was an excess of solar energy that caused the grid collapse then in one way its good that solar is capable of producing all the energy required and more, the issue seems to be having the capacity to either store or dispose of the excess.

Surely that is just an engineering issue and not a reason to to demean solar power in general?

Everything is just an engineering issue with enough dollar like a ladder to put satellite in orbit, solar is not bad but not suited to the grid need in the current setup.and reflect on how lucky Spain was to have access to both France and Morocco grid to restart.
Yes Morrocco was a major contributor to Spain restarting their grid (southern part)
Spain was going for a political target..first week renewable energy milestone and fell flat on a reality issue
But nothing than a few hundred billions will not fix..
Now will PNG help us to recover when we will hit the proverbial if our coal stations are down?.. Tasmania within limit probably..will be slow

 

[IFocus]

If it was an excess of solar energy that caused the grid collapse then in one way its good that solar is capable of producing all the energy required and more, the issue seems to be having the capacity to either store or dispose of the excess.

Surely that is just an engineering issue and not a reason to to demean solar power in general?

Correct

 

[sptrawler]

If it was an excess of solar energy that caused the grid collapse then in one way its good that solar is capable of producing all the energy required and more, the issue seems to be having the capacity to either store or dispose of the excess.

Surely that is just an engineering issue and not a reason to to demean solar power in general?

Weeelll, yes and no, it is great that there is enough generation, it isn't great that the generation has exceeded the ability to control it, when everyone in Spain and Potugual were dependant on it.

Look at it this way, if the whole East coast Grid collapsed, because an over frequency event caused a domino collapse event, then unlike Spain and Portugal we don't have the reserve capacity of France, to restore it quickly.

Would you and the cheer squad be running around doing high fives, saying magic, we told you we could get 100% renewables, if it took days to re establish the grid?

Like I keep saying, it isn't a good situation, when you get the ideology in front of the technology, it will be interesting to watch the fallout.

I think we will be posting it up soon, re adjustments to targets and deployment rates may be slowed, as inertia and system security is upgraded and installed.

It's a bit like S.A, it already is a World leader in renewable penetration, if it didn't have the other States to support it and it had a blackout, I don't think it would be an easy restart for the State.
I wont ask @Smurf because it is not something that should be discussed it is probably out of bounds.

I'll put it a way @IFocus might relate to, he and his wife have done a couple of trips around Aus in the 4x4 and Van, well now there are things like the F150 lightning EV utes, they have been around for a few years.

If @IFocus was asked which car would you tow the van around Australia with, the Toyota diesel, or the EV ute, he would probably hum a bit but he would go for the Diesel, he may say I would take the EV if I could take a generator as backup.

Now if you said, ok now you are doing the great central road, the Simpson desert, the Oodanatta track and tge Anne Beadel back through to Laverton. The EV isn't an option, because failure isn't an option.

That's the problem Australia and W.A especially has, failure isn't an option, we don't have backup, we don't have an endless supply of skills and resources just over the border.
Interesting times.

 

[macca]

Weeelll, yes and no, it is great that there is enough generation, it isn't great that the generation has exceeded the ability to control it, when everyone in Spain and Potugual were dependant on it.

Look at it this way, if the whole East coast Grid collapsed, because an over frequency event caused a domino collapse event, then unlike Spain and Portugal we don't have the reserve capacity of France, to restore it quickly.

Would you and the cheer squad be running around doing high fives, saying magic, we told you we could get 100% renewables, if it took days to re establish the grid?

Like I keep saying, it isn't a good situation, when you get the ideology in front of the technology, it will be interesting to watch the fallout.

I think we will be posting it up soon, re adjustments to targets and deployment rates may be slowed, as inertia and system security is upgraded and installed.

If the East Coast went down totally, how would we restart and how long is it likely to take before it would be back working correctly.......................