but for what its worth, you sound very intelligent …. Given that, you may well treat me as a lesser individual (JK ….. I'm obviously smarter than everybody )
Blushing, but sadly, the older that I get the dumber I know I am.
Opinions or views and beliefs are one thing, how we arrive at them is another. Of course if someone is of the opinion via their logic and beliefs that the world was built in 7 days as some do, its impossible and in fact futile to go and try to convince them otherwise, I attempt to present a case, and leave it at that.
Often, its upsetting them, the presentation of a science based or logic based belief, and its against their core values and as such, again nothing to do with intelligence,
of which I have little, to be of a differing opinion. Speaking as I tend to do of the future, and this I think is key for me, prediction of something its not possible to say with any certainty that you are correct.
With any prediction, stocks, markets, commodities or even more topical things like politics, the debate is about something, that may or may not occur in the future. People will either take it or leave it. Discussion and input are welcomed, well, most of the time. If as I have over many years taken the time to enter red hot debates over various things, with a view, often totally opposite of the current wisdom being touted.
I do these things, NOT to get a raise, but having examined others views, on what at times appears to be a fanatical fan thread, and finding an examination of say accounts, assets and possibility of success to be zero, and likely the stock is a scam of fools gold, present the logic. Some classic stories over the years of even ASIC doing its job with say a few stocks I bothered to take it higher. One turned out was insider selling and the other, one person, on Hot copper with 6 nics spreading rubbish. Bother were shams and lost 95% of value. Others similar and for my rewards, death threats, abuse, phone calls, threats of litigation and so on. Such at times is life.
Admitting your wrong, taking a decision to STOP the pain despite your beliefs or values, is a personal journey. As a trader, investor all my life, the best decisions I often take are BEING wrong. Not dwelling on the loss, taking some wisdom from it, if needed and learning.
Speaking about a MACRO based, valuation based approach to most topics, one based upon what occurred in the past, what drives markets and stocks, and NOT following the crowd just for the sake of it, often seems idiotic. I ran and have run on and off a thread on other sites and here about cycles and its forever speaking about an OPINION, one based upon science and logic and valuation and past history. People either take it, or leave it. Sometimes its seemingly calling for impossible things. Amusing and often heated at the time when your late 2000 trying to hose down a red hot NASDQ or late 2007 into 2008 trying to explain why a markets going to fall 40%. It turned out at 56% fall ...
History often teaches lessons in finance, and also life, which we forget, or are made to forget so someone can sell a stock that longer term is worthless and worth 10 cents and we buy it at $3-. Whilst not hoping to get a hard based valuation based approach as a filter to any stock .... so wrong ... it happens. Taking the loss ... at some set level is admitting your WRONG and moving on. You missed something, the directors lie to you, and in modern times, technology can make things like horse and buggy worthless seemingly over a few years with the invention of cars. In modern times its almost overnight or 12 months the value of something which was around for 50 years, overnight is worth half.
It is an interesting if not fascinating life I have enjoyed. Being right, or stubborn, or pigheaded, gets one no where. I listen and have been gifted by doing so, even to the most illogical of arguments. Non scientific fan based ones or religious ones, or people who just like arguing or the pure trolls who do so for pleasure. In the end, you have taken all you can via intelligent discussion with others, and leave the flat earth trolls alone. Its not arrogance or needing to be right in saying this. If something has occurred 100 times previously, or a million times, and a person is arguing as often occurs, THIS time ... its going to be different. It sadly as Einstein said,
insanity to do an experiment 100 times and expect a different result.
If someone chooses to say argue against a mere chemical reaction governed by LAWS of science such as endothermic and exothermic reactions, as does occur ... I listen as to why of course. I point out that its been done 1000 times if not a billion times prior to this with the same result ... and your actually arguing it is wrong because this time it will be different, well, I try to be polite but when bombarded with this logic, it becomes tedious.
Strangely most things in finance are not new. They are driven by various forces. Sometimes its yep the human side and logic leaves the farm, often I might add with the assistance of stock promoters, sometimes driven by greed and stupidity. The underlying valuation effects however are constant and non negotiable and unwavering. A company makes a product at a cost of $100- and sells it for $90, no matter how good the product is and the stock going to a billion dollar valuation, the stock is WORTHLESS. As a group, interest rates, tax and various forms of both monetary and fiscal policy will always dictate valuation of ANYTHING. Again, something often forgotten in the zero percent world of interest rates.
Interestingly enough, I actually also think she is always right, but it is my duty as a husband to disagree with her at least 20% of the time lest she gets an overly righteous and super imposed ego about her superiority …
So therefore, I am in the crap 20% of the time even though I am obviously a near perfect husband My life is tough
She MUST be obeyed !! I love it and women are a gift as is love. Sh is sadly superior as are all women to males and I suspect if we had more females running the world we would be far better off.
I certainly am the last person to argue with a woman in full flow. Yes dear is the correct response and only correct one.
