The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[wayneL]

Guys,

Lets stick to EW analysis in this thread, rather than personality clashes.

Thanks

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Marketwaves by all means discuss it but can you stop being the human headline for Elliot.
Its like dealing with an evangilist!
Might be big in the States but leaves most Aussies cold.

I like what Market waves has to say. I trust he won't be chased away.

Market waves how long have you used EW and what inspired you to start using it?

 

[DTM]

This is not the the States vs Australia , there is no competition here
People are people where ever you are ....................
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I can only be me ........... I would'nt want to change anyone

There are people who appreciate what I am saying
and
Im sure there are others who appreciate what you are saying also ........

You are what you are , and I am what I am ,,,,,,

I understand ,
So in an effort to Keep the Peace I will not post in here anymore .....
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I will stay clear of your thread , please excuse me .....
It was Kennars that decided move my posts in here in your thread
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I was just trying to follow along with what he was suggesting by posting
in here ..... I will also ask Kennars to remove my posts that he has put here

Again please please excuse me ..........
I will post elsewhere ....Thanx alot
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C'mon Market,

you've only just come back and there are lot of people that appreciate your knowledge although only a few people post replies to it.

DON'T GO DON'T GO DON'T GO

 

[Nick Radge]

marketwaves,
Wavepicker uses the AGet charting package but I think you'll find (with 100% certainty) that the counts are manually put on by him and not the computer.

 

[L plates]

Bring this thread back to life.

I'm sure there were many who are disappointed that the thread never got off the ground.

I'll start it off again with a question, one that I just can't get my head around.
When you look at a blank chart where do you start with an impulse wave 1? Would I be correct in assuming that for most charts the beginning of wave 1 would be the lows that we reached in August? How far back do you look?

I have many questions but I'll ask them one by one in what I think is the correct order.
I hope there are others who want to see this thread start again

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Bring this thread back to life.

I'm sure there were many who are disappointed that the thread never got off the ground.

I'll start it off again with a question, one that I just can't get my head around.
When you look at a blank chart where do you start with an impulse wave 1? Would I be correct in assuming that for most charts the beginning of wave 1 would be the lows that we reached in August? How far back do you look?

I have many questions but I'll ask them one by one in what I think is the correct order.
I hope there are others who want to see this thread start again

Cheers

That really depends on what degree of trend you are looking at.

I tend to start at the big picture(Monthly/Weekly charts) and work my way down to the current daily charts.

Others do it the other way round, and still yet others focus on a particular section of data that they feel has the right EW patterns/proportions.

For me the pattern comes first, knowing the type of patterns we are dealing with is paramount, and I add my most probably labels around that pattern. Once you determine the most probable pattern you are dealing with, then you can come up with the most likely patterns that might follow.

I know most EW practioners would not do this, but it seems to work best for me, and I know of at least one other poster on this site who applies it successfully this way.

All the best

 

[tech/a]

I tend to start at the big picture(Monthly/Weekly charts) and work my way down to the current daily charts.

Others do it the other way round, and still yet others focus on a particular section of data that they feel has the right EW patterns/proportions.

For me the pattern comes first, knowing the type of patterns we are dealing with is paramount, and I add my most probably labels around that pattern. Once you determine the most probable pattern you are dealing with, then you can come up with the most likely patterns that might follow.

For me a sort of combination of the above.
Of course I use other analysis to confirm.
I tend to allow price/Volume and range to confirm the pattern before taking a trade with the lowest risk I can find once confident that my interpretation of what I'm seeing has a high probability of playing out.

If the forward R/R is acceptable 2:1 or better then I'll take the trade.
I'll add that I'm trading shorter term with this approach.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm glad this thread has started again. Anyone care to comment on the recent and current activity of ANZ as an educational exercise, since its August low. ANZ is a very liquid stock with some volitility. I enclose a chart.

gg

 

[wavepicker]

I'm glad this thread has started again. Anyone care to comment on the recent and current activity of ANZ as an educational exercise, since its August low. ANZ is a very liquid stock with some volitility. I enclose a chart.

gg

gave it a go Garpal,

firstly starting with my take for the longer term(monthly chart) and then working down to the daily minutia.
Looks like we had three waves down form July 16th till mid August. Then another 3 waves up till now. Same as the XAO.

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

I'm glad this thread has started again. Anyone care to comment on the recent and current activity of ANZ as an educational exercise, since its August low. ANZ is a very liquid stock with some volitility. I enclose a chart.

gg

Hi Garpal,
From memory I posted my E/W take on it in the ANZ thread yesterday or posiibly the day before.
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Carrying on from yesterday, how do the Ellioticians approach trading in ANZ , given its retracement today.

gg

 

[wavepicker]

Carrying on from yesterday, how do the Ellioticians approach trading in ANZ , given its retracement today.

gg

The key reversal day was yesterday, that was the day to take the trade with a stop just above the previous high of that bar of $31.61 (Just above blue wave 2 & teal wave c)
If one assumes this is the early stage of a third wave down, then it can move down various ways. We can wait for a second countertrend here to perhaps take up a bearish position, keeping the stop at $31.61. Undertanding countertrends is the key.

One should wait to see if this countertrend perhaps "leaves a space" between the last support level at $30.16(Teal wave b low) and the high of that countertrend. This is especially true if it will only be a one day countertrend, as thereafter the market will get smashed as a wave of 3 of 3 of 3 at a certain degree of trend will be in force

Hope this helps

Cheers

 

[Nick Radge]

Small gap above todays high which should (will?) get filled. Any fill and rejection is a short. Any new lows after today signals a confirmed 3-wave counter trend advance off the August lows and as Waves says, bye-bye...

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[Lachlan6]

Agree with Nick and WaveP. I actually entered ANZ today but as my stop was just below that wave a/wave (1) I decided to exit for a small loss. My bias is a little to the downside re the market, so I entered LLC as a short instead at $19.66.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks L6, Nick and WaveP, I followed that and can see how you came to those conclusions.

gg

 

[Frank D]

Trading Stocks...


I don’t think ANZ is going down as far as some of you think.
So many ABC formations and numbers I get so confused looking at some
of these EW charts posted, and I spent many years with EW in the 90's.

This is my 2 bob's worth.

Yearly and Primary Trend has defined banks stocks for years.
Trend defined by dynamic 50% level in 2008, which is an area
you would be looking to BUY into.


I don’t know why people would want to ‘short’ financial stocks, it makes no sense.

Medium Term:- Chart Below

#1 Stock supported around the September 50% level

#2 Weekly 50% level ‘resistance ' caps price from rising.

#3 Change of cycles and ‘resistance' disappears and becomes 'support’ Forewarning resistance becomes foretelling a 'new trend’

#4 Traders can ‘pre-empt’ the break once again as it trusts out of weekly 50% level support and follows the weekly dynamic ‘path’ defined by the 3-day cycle.

#5 ‘change of cycle’ as it breaks the 3-day lows:- Exit medium term positions. But ‘hook’ confirms the trend back inside 50% level. (consolidation trading week 5-day pattern)

Short-term:-

#6 The weekly 50% level will defined the trend next week.

#7 With any rotation down towards the November 50% level


Frank Dilernia

 

[Nick Radge]

So many ABC formations and numbers I get so confused looking at some

So many 50% retracements and numbers I get so confused looking at some

 

[Frank D]

Nick,

This is an Elliot Wave Thread, and there seem a few traders using this ‘mythology’ for T/A, and there are a lot of interested people that want to know more about it.

Let’s pick a stock like CBA or any stock/ index, or currency. You can pick it.

I would like 5 different EW analysts, do a long term technical Analysis on XXX, and a medium term look, and even a short-term 5-day view using EW if they have the time

Just a simple T/A view from 5-different users on EW

cheers,
Frank

 

[Nick Radge]

Its not a contest on how long yours is to mine Frank. I'm only interested in my account balance increasing. Elliott Wave allows me to achieve that goal with comfort and that, my friend, is the all that counts.

 

[Frank D]

Nick,

My view on ANZ is just a technical view nothing more or nothing less. It’s not about money, its just analysis.

I’m interested in a technical view from 5 different EW traders on the same component.

It’s not about whether the T/A view is right or wrong, but how 5 different analyst’s use EW.

Frank