TAH - Tabcorp Holdings

[baglimit]

1. i'd like to open by saying this is not a ramp - they dont need ramping currently.
2. i dont need to buy anymore & arent planning on selling - SPP for employees was great enough....have since left.
3. refer back to 1 & 2.

hope that eliminates any nasty comebacks. i'm just wondering how far TAH is going to travel. it is tradition for them to have a great run in cup week, but they had a great month prior to that, and have continued on since. a little birdie has told me they are 'very likely' to re-introduce high rollers at star city early next year, to combine with the successful jupiters program and then take on crown ltd in seeking the cream on that weird but wonderful 'win rate'. (i dont know how that works)
what i was also wondering was how former nswtab holders felt about seeing gains in a stock because they are a well run company, not because they are going to be taken over in a bidding war. surely TAB would still be in the $3.50 range if not for this years fight between TAH & UTB. former TAB's pls reply.
does anyone have any recent stock reports from brokers with target prices, as all the ones ive seen have seen the targets passed very quickly lately.

 

[baglimit]

Re: TAH - wheres it gonna end

clearly a dud topic in here - ok, i'll try another

 

[son of baglimit]

anyone willing to contribute ?

are on the lookout for any broker recommends / ratings for tah - anyone have any ?

still holding - still love the divvies, still love the drp - now for a drop of good news.

 

[Ann]

Hello to the Baglimit family,

I am happy to put a chart up with a few comments........

Sorry they aren't more positive....but I could be way off of course.

 

[Julia]

anyone willing to contribute ?

are on the lookout for any broker recommends / ratings for tah - anyone have any ?

still holding - still love the divvies, still love the drp - now for a drop of good news.

Hi Son of baglimit

Some time can you satisfy my wondering about the Baglimit family names?!!

Have checked on "Australian Broker Call" which offers the following from 24 February which is the latest comment on TAH.

Macquarie: Neutral Target price $16.10

SB Citigroup Buy, medium risk Target price $19.60

Merrill Lynch Buy, Low Risk Target price $19.70

J P Morgan Neutral No target price

UBS Neutral Target price $16.15.

On 23 February Huntleys had a recommendation of Accumulate.

Hope this helps.

Julia

 

[son of baglimit]

thanks for that julia

family - no - one & the same - maybe technical issues, but i prefer to use 'tax dodge' as the reason.

 

[son of baglimit]

again - a call out for those who have any broker recommendations for tah - just havent seen any in detail....please help.

 

[Ann]

Hello Son of Baglimit,

I am not with a full service broker, so I don't get recommendations. However I was asked directly on another forum for my opinion of TAH.

May I share my opinion with you, bearing in mind I am someone of no consequence. I am just sharing an opinion for what it is worth.

I do not own any gaming stocks and I am completely unbiased....this does not necessarily make me correct in my assesment.

TAH is offering a good yield because the price has fallen quite a bit over the last few months. If it had retained its normal price range you would not be looking at this sort of yield.

The Bracks Government wants to maximise returns from gambling in Victoria, so one of the factors they will be considering is whether Victoria retains the current licensing systems.

Both TAH and Tatts have the best chance to secure the licences beyond their 2012 expiry but the government is looking to attract bids from new players.

TAH has a $600 million break fee that must be paid to them by the Government if the company does not retain its wagering licence however this may be something that could be a trade off in securing a licence.

I understand both Racing Victoria and Queensland's UNiTAB may be interested in TAH's wagering licence and may be involved in a bid for the licence.

Let's have a look at the charts of both UTB and TAH. I have an indicator that I use to guage market sentiment. It is called the Positive Volume Index. It is not a reflection of the price movements....but it is more an indicator of the interest in a company. It can be manipulated but in these two cases I do not believe this is happening.

 

[Ann]

This is a chart for the potential licence contender....

 

[Julia]

Ann

Thanks for posting those charts. Another factor probably influencing UTB's recent rise (before going ex-div at least) has been merger/takeover rumours.

Son of Baglimit

Broker Consensus Report as at 23 March for TAH was:

Strong Buy - 4
Hold - 6
Sell - 1

Sometimes, though, this includes recommendations which have been there for a while.

FN Arena has

Deutsche at 17/3 - Hold

Merrill Lynch at 9/3 - Buy

Aspect Huntley at 6/3 - Accumulate

Nothing more recent than that I'm afraid.

Julia

 

[Ann]

Julia,

Thank you very much for that information. I have put a similar post up in another couple of forums. I have had a response from someone with closer ties to TAH and they may be able to offer a less pessimistic view on TAH. So anyone interested, please stay tuned for another view.

 

[Julia]

ABN-Amro has just issued a Buy on TAH. Their comment is (roughly paraphrased - can't copy and paste cos copyright):

"In the broker's view the longer the TVN/SKY split on broadcasting racing issue remains unresolved, the more serious it becomes, especially since relicensing process has commenced in Victoria."

I don't hold TAH, just UTB.

Julia

 

[son of baglimit]

anyone know whats behind current drive ? - well past pre utb/tts news price !!

 

[Julia]

anyone know whats behind current drive ? - well past pre utb/tts news price !!

Presumably it's being fuelled by persistent rumours (equally persistently denied) that it will attempt to outbid Tattersalls for Unitab.

Julia

 

[son of baglimit]

i'd argue the opposite - the takeover semed to initially fuel that speculation, and drove the price down, on expectation any bid would be overpriced. the denials and subsequent reports to say it would be a bad idea re-established the price, but now its gone beyond that - is it TVN finalised, or something else ?

 

[son of baglimit]

my spies tell me Slatter has got NSW racing minister to agree to pooling of NSW & VIC betting pools - if correct, they'd go online within a week of announcing - gee i hope its true.

 

[son of baglimit]

GEE - WHO SAW THAT COMING ??????????????

 

[Dutchy3]

This one tempted me at the end of last week yet the selling last Friday was disconcerting. As we head for the close today I've been taking positions as this one is holding reasonably. Not going to set the world on fire. 10 - 20% should be possible from the next 12 months

 

[GreatPig]

Looks like it could be forming a saucer pattern.

GP

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi GP

Indeed and then that might be about it ... If It does see 17.30 ish without much excitment that might prove to be a good time to bale. Its proven to be a bit of a bugger to watch over the years as it can turn in days / weeks where it is dumped upon in what otherwise is a strong up trend. It's size and position in the market almost make it madatory for the diversified fund to hold and yet they are quite prepared to cane it at the same time.

That said 5% margin on the position and a 10 - 20% move in price offers plenty of return.