My silly 60 c order expires this week so I'll probably dodge a bullet , here . But there are a lot of big orders behind me in the queue at that price . Chart looks bearish . No doubt about it . Technically you just would not want to be in it right now . S.P. trading in a range of $ 0.615 to $ 0.65 for the past week . One to watch , I think .
SVM - Sovereign Metals
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Sean K
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I think there's been an exit from some punters due to the CR and RIO not participating. In then end it only took their holding from around 19.9 to 18% but it's a strange thing for them to do. Why not chip in a few more coins to keep up the % ownership? Especially when the whole idea was to take it over? Maybe they think they can take it out cheaper. Or, the deal is sufficient enough to just be the operator of the mine once it's approved. Still have the capex issue.
Sean K
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It's going to be a very large long life mine for whoever mines it. The de-risking that's going on is taking ages. DFS later this year and then RIO have 180 days to decide what they're going to do. That's going to be a very significant time for this company. Not sure what the odds are for RIO to take it over, fund the capex, or become the operator. They've already spent a lot of time and effort on it so probably better than 50% take up their option.
Sean K
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I'm close to satisfied 60c might be a base @craigj but you never know.
I think some people were spooked with the placement at 85c (when SVM didn't really need raise) and that RIO didn't buy into it, so a lot of punters bailed to see what might eventuate. It looks to me like that might have all been washed out. The weak hands are gone and there's some new owners, or convicted owners, who have bought in, or added.
So, an interesting juncture.
Don't like the Death Cross about to occur here but I think that's due to the long sustained rise of the SP until the sharp collapse in March which puts the lagging indicators all out of whack.
I'm not sure exactly where we are on the Lassonde Curve with this. It was going very well up until the placement and that was probably in the orphan period. They are obviously post discovery and now have to get to the DFS and get finance. That's the start of the second climb up the hill. So, maybe we're in the blue circle at the moment. Nothing follows Pierre's curve exactly.
I think some people were spooked with the placement at 85c (when SVM didn't really need raise) and that RIO didn't buy into it, so a lot of punters bailed to see what might eventuate. It looks to me like that might have all been washed out. The weak hands are gone and there's some new owners, or convicted owners, who have bought in, or added.
So, an interesting juncture.
Don't like the Death Cross about to occur here but I think that's due to the long sustained rise of the SP until the sharp collapse in March which puts the lagging indicators all out of whack.
I'm not sure exactly where we are on the Lassonde Curve with this. It was going very well up until the placement and that was probably in the orphan period. They are obviously post discovery and now have to get to the DFS and get finance. That's the start of the second climb up the hill. So, maybe we're in the blue circle at the moment. Nothing follows Pierre's curve exactly.
Sean K
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Change in substantial holder out with Sprott reducing it's position slightly from 7.7 to 6.8%. Not a biggie but curious. Not sure if Rick Rule is covered by that or he's listed as an individual stockholder. Individual I guess. I doubt he's got so much in it to be a substantial holder though.
Even so, been waiting for a bottom after the selloff from the CR and RIO not taking part debacle and it's potentially in.
Pretty sure we're in the orphan zone on the chart so the next 12 months or so with DFS, financing and FID happening it should climb the second peak of the Lassonde till production. That's a while off though so patience needed.
Even so, been waiting for a bottom after the selloff from the CR and RIO not taking part debacle and it's potentially in.
Pretty sure we're in the orphan zone on the chart so the next 12 months or so with DFS, financing and FID happening it should climb the second peak of the Lassonde till production. That's a while off though so patience needed.
Sovereign Metals and Pilbara Mines , both seem to me : to be classic examples of where this T. A. caper fails us and fails utterly !
If you're wanting to put your own dough into these things , I for one , am of the opinion , there are times like now when you simply cannot ignore the fundamentals ( the sometimes despised F. A . on this forum ) ,
Best to proceed with caution , even though I've had silly low bids in , for both of them !
If you're wanting to put your own dough into these things , I for one , am of the opinion , there are times like now when you simply cannot ignore the fundamentals ( the sometimes despised F. A . on this forum ) ,
Best to proceed with caution , even though I've had silly low bids in , for both of them !
Sean K
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Maybe .... but that massive sell off is still quite recent and it brought the moving average lines down at a steep rate . At a guess , I'd say all those sellers have misread the tea leaves , realised a loss and could be now reluctant to dive back in at 65 c .
It's all got to be written off against something good , something profitable , before the end of this month .
If this thing is no longer investment grade for the Insto's who's to say the S. P. is about to head north in a hurry ?
Too much for my small brain . I'll just keep watching .
It's all got to be written off against something good , something profitable , before the end of this month .
If this thing is no longer investment grade for the Insto's who's to say the S. P. is about to head north in a hurry ?
Too much for my small brain . I'll just keep watching .
Sean K
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More testing to confirm what they've been telling us for ages. Come on guys, grab a shovel and start digging this stuff up.
Sean K
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Yeah, it was looking very good for a break back up and I added a few last month expecting so. I'm still betting that RIO take them over for some sort of premium. I'll take 50% of the NPV of the project which is about 4 x the current MC.
Knobby22
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Nice and stable forming a base.
Sean K
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Yes, looks like the sellers have exited around 63c and we have some new fresh holders. Late March to early April was a shocker. I wonder who wanted out. There were no significant major shareholder changes that I can see except for RIO not keeping their 19.9% holdings after the placement. And, Sprott reduced by 1%. Maybe that was enough for punters to run.
I was just looking through their past announcement and came across this one on 16 April that hadn't been looked at in much detail.
They said they were doing form DFS geo programs and and an infill program.
Results of the infill and an updated MRE were expected to be reported during Q2 2025.
Sean K
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Looked like it might have been breaking through 75c but paused again.
Overall, formed a nice base as @Knobby22 pointed out and slowly moving up. Taking on 75c again, but intraday. Looks more positive by taking out the 200 dma line as well. Could be the start of a longer term upward move.
Sean K
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This iceberg is slowly recovering from the CR which destroyed the SP for a while. Back above 75c and looking solid, for now.
Surprised that the recent graphite news out of the US and China didn't make this jump around a bit. Maybe due to it being a rutile project first means the punters don't automatically drive this on the graphite.
I guess this DFS work is all good, as they keep telling us.
Surprised that the recent graphite news out of the US and China didn't make this jump around a bit. Maybe due to it being a rutile project first means the punters don't automatically drive this on the graphite.
I guess this DFS work is all good, as they keep telling us.
Sean K
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A bit late in pushing out a ramp about the graphite which the market had overlooked. Better late than never, but I have a feeling all these China tariff things are going to blow over eventually once Trump has made out like he's made some big beautiful deals.
Sean K
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These guys like announcing something anytime there's a slight update on anything. Apparently the new coffee machines paid for with the last capital raise including a gleaming La Marzocco KB90 ABR are humming along nicely.
Still in the Orphan Zone, although the long term chart doesn't really represent this as Pierre would have envisaged.
Should start creeping up the right hand side of the next bump after the DFS and RIO commit to the development.
Still in the Orphan Zone, although the long term chart doesn't really represent this as Pierre would have envisaged.
Should start creeping up the right hand side of the next bump after the DFS and RIO commit to the development.