This sounds like your saying it's bearish Quake, i.e money being withdrawn from funds, no money left on the sidelines, down we go? Or your saying just now as the retailers are getting bearish, the larger hedge funds/IBs are going to get bullish?
As for the Citi MMs, if the market was pushed down those 3 ticks, what ramifications would this have?
Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT
Ok cool, I get you now. Yes, a LOT of traders got bearish right before that stopping vol. Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT
On the warrents/oppies, does this mean they simply become worthless? No further flow on effects into stocks/futures?
I think the bhp/rio volume on friday was the first sign of some bullish activity.
But I dont think the bears will give up too easily.
We'll see if the usd can fall some tonight or not.
Broadway, I've seen you mention volume quite a few times on this down move, from day 2 I think, but from what I have seen, you are looking at pointless volume, in small timeframes or even SYCOM volume.
The first decent potential stopping volume from a daily perspective was Friday night IMO.
Anyways, I will be out of ASF now for quite some time or perhaps permanently (other than the odd visit) to concentrate on my own trading, good luck all!
That was a nice 40 odd tick bounce from the channel bot, anyone up for a break of 4470s sailing into the sunset?
Catalyst may be CBA tomorrow.
crap day for me, bought the tops, sold the bottoms,
Average range is currently around 48 points.
Interesting Sam, looking at your blog you seemed to of done abit of ground work regarding the SPI but didn't take your stats into account?
But no means having a dig, just curious as to why.
Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading,
Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading, and when I'm calm and calculating ranges, patterns etc. Remaining calm, patient and confident are most likely the differences between me and someone who knows how to trade
Gotta learn to walk away for half hour and cool down. Wait for another set-up, look at other markets or stop all together.
Cheers for the reply Sam, keep up the good work with the blog too. Provides abit of Motivation for myself.
Problem arises when you run into the situation in the heat of battle your triggered into the "other" you, the fighter. Only way around it is to tackle it or at least recognise the state and learn to see what is triggering your Mr Hyde state. Then instead of making yourself go nuts trying to controlling it or just walking away, which is similar to sweeping it under the carpet, you have to learn how to "de-threat" the situation.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/trading-and-brain-trauma-and-amygdala.html
If that is true, then many of the self-help techniques that we read in the trading psychology literature may be not very helpful for traders dealing with exaggerated responses mediated by the amygdala. Writing in a journal, talking with a coach, or visualizing positive outcomes would not be sufficient for reprogramming traumatic responses and overcoming emotional reactivity and loss aversion.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/06/from-problem-patterns-to-solutions.html
In short, fighting the pattern is a mistake. The challenge is to understand the function of the pattern and then rehearse a different way of satisfying this function. Instead of viewing the problem pattern as maladaptive, the brief therapist views it as a form of problem solving that no longer works for the individual.
94% of those early high-down days occurred within 30 minutes of 10am, so from about 9:20 till 10:20, 30 minutes each side of 10am, is usually when the high will occur.
Sounds like another hard day at the office Sam, however again going back to your blog
Looking at the Chart for the ASX 200 on the main ASF page your analysis was just about spot on again. I guess there was no way of knowing that the day was going to be a down day @ 10:30am, and with 2 heavy weights reporting could increase risk of fading the up moves.
Just on my attempts at backyard psychology,
This one is a good one. Goes to the heart of 1 person 2 traders thing I was talking about.
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