SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? suspense music

MS+Tradesim · 3 June 2009

ivant said:
Its an amazing short opportunity. I am just being a little conservative at the moment, and not doubling my bet just in case Dow hits 9000... A likely scenario. I have never seen such high overbought levels on the 4 hour... despite that, this can go anywhere... (still short 50 lol)

Rather than thinking about charging others it might be worth your while to get a membership of Frank D's blog.

beamstas · 3 June 2009

MS+Tradesim said:
Rather than thinking about charging others it might be worth your while to get a membership of Frank D's blog.

Don't know why he'd need a fiver?
Since he made 100k in april?

ivant · 3 June 2009

nomore4s said:
I thought we just had a break and consolidation? And now it is now pushing up through resistance?

different time frames in question. Longer term, no doubt. If you look at a daily chart, seems like we can definitely keep up the upwards trending line that started in late March, until eventually in July we hit 4400, which to me seems an unbreakable level of resistance at the moment. Who knows?

skc said:
Stop <> Reverse is what everyone's saying.

And despite SPI now being 4010, it's still raining in Sydney

We have went so far without a correction it is crazy. Nevertheless, technically a rise is possible. I still would think that a 100-200 point correction from these levels is very likely, without breaking the upward trend.

beamstas said:
You have so many indicators i can't even see the price

I have another page of indicators i use lol! two sets of templates..

Trembling Hand · 3 June 2009

Must be time for some demotivators from my friends at despair.com

Mr J · 3 June 2009

Think that's my last trade against the trend. Tried them to see how they would perform. They did well at first, but for the last month they've been breakeven, and an unworthwhile profit overall.

ivant · 3 June 2009

Frank D said:
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Ivan,

You are like a great system, works perfectly when the market allows it
to work perfectly, but when market conditions change all great systems experience drawdowns or go into the dust bin

You just need to work on your ability of understanding when those
conditions change, and at the moment you’re simply not reading the
market correctly.

This market is going to go to 4400, and if you are short you better hope
the JUNE highs @ 4042 stop this up trend this month, otherwise you need
to stop shorting the market above 4042 regardless of what you think.

Just my 2 bobs worth

Oh without doubt! as i said just 10 seconds ago, it seems very likely the market can edge to 4400 by mid-July. "You are like a great system, works perfectly when the market allows it to work perfectly, but when market conditions change all great systems experience drawdowns or go into the dust bin" That is a great line!! I have actually said it on occasions myself, maybe in not such pretty words I am not so sure the market has changed so much since October 2007. If this rally extends further, then it will be one of the biggest rallies in history, % wise. I think 30% + rallies happened 4 or 5 times since the depression. *shrugs* time will tell!

MS+Tradesim said:
Rather than thinking about charging others it might be worth your while to get a membership of Frank D's blog.

I didn't know Frank D had a paid blog, but I will definitely be checking it out. You have to also remember, that I have not charged anyone at this rate, just started posting in my blog a lot more, and simply considered it.

beamstas said:
Don't know why he'd need a fiver?
Since he made 100k in april?

It is more so that I post in a disciplined matter. I am not so sure I can be disciplined enough to post everyday, and if I have members then I have a reason to post. If i find after a few months that i cant post on a daily basis, or more, then I obviously wouldn't have a member's section...

Frank D · 3 June 2009

ivant said:
If this rally extends further, then it will be one of the biggest rallies in history, % wise. I think 30% + rallies happened 4 or 5 times since the depression. *shrugs* time will tell!

Ivan,

Your trading the secondary trends of the market, but forgetting the
primary trends and reversal of those trends.

Back into 2003 the reversal towards the midpoint occurred in
3-months.

If it follows the same pattern , which no doubt it will, the same thing
can happen (4400). The only thing unknown is the speed of which it
gets there.

If it hits 4400 quicker than expected in this Quarter or early 3rd
Quarter, then 4400 is a brick wall.

I hope it doesn’t hit 4400 soon, as I prefer the market to follow my
model precisely and move in Monthly timeframe wave patterns, as it
allows more rotation and potentially more opportunities to make money

Therefore 4042 is seen as random resistance in June (sycom 4088)

Imo, it’s not the biggest rally in history, it’s simply reversing the
previous down move in 2008 & early 2009.

I like to think more like that it was the biggest correction in history, and this is simply reversing some
of that down move.

Cartman · 3 June 2009

Frank D said:
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

This market is going to go to 4400, and if you are short you better hope
the JUNE highs @ 4042 stop this up trend this month, otherwise you need
to stop shorting the market above 4042 regardless of what you think.

Just my 2 bobs worth

Perhaps a little poetry to paraphrase that Frank

The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.

But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
And the result much less gruesome.

beamstas · 3 June 2009

Cartman said:
The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.

But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
And the result much less gruesome.

The world of cartman

sammy84 · 3 June 2009

Cartman said:
Perhaps a little poetry to paraphrase that Frank

The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.

But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
And the result much less gruesome.

Brought a tear to my eye.

If that was the profit taking that occurred in the last few weeks, then this rally sure has some balls. Not a lot of weak holders here.

nunthewiser · 3 June 2009

ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?

hands up those currently holding long positions ?

dont want no "yeah m8 i entered yesterday" claims.just intrested on who doing what basically

i hold no shorts , have not entered any longs today , merely continuing to ride a few individual stock longs which were posted around these threads on entrys

just intrested ,not trying to hand out badges or stickers to anyone

beamstas · 3 June 2009

nunthewiser said:
ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?

hands up those currently holding long positions ?

dont want no "yeah m8 i entered yesterday" claims.just intrested on who doing what basically

i hold no shorts , have not entered any longs today , merely continuing to ride a few individual stock longs which were posted around these threads on entrys

just intrested ,not trying to hand out badges or stickers to anyone

I went long at 3500, 50 contracts

nunthewiser · 3 June 2009

beamstas said:
Maybe its time i went long then

that was the 1/6/09

stop teasing me

was just about to form a cheer squad for you

Cartman · 3 June 2009

sammy84 said:
Brought a tear to my eye.

me too --- but i was cutting up onions at the time ---- i have more poetry for anyone interested ---- any topic --- any whatever !! --- no charge (Plus GST !!)

nunthewiser said:
ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?

hands up those currently holding long positions ?

i'm with u Nun ---- i'm holding neither ----

but my hands are up ---- i wish these bludy police would stop knocking at my door !! ---- ive done nothing wrong -----

(what is the definition of tax evasion by the way ??!! )

ps a short term long would be interesting at a retrace to 3950 (24 hr trade) --- a short ONLY after that retrace would be interesting at a failure of the previous high (currently around 4030) ---

my opinion is that the momentum has not been eaten up yet and until a serious retrace has been instigated, NO short trades ---- i am becoming a more disciplined trader of late lol ---

interesting mini rally on the DX as i type --- looks suspiciously like the start of a bottoming formation

MRC & Co · 3 June 2009

Nun, I currently have a small long position. Have nearly pulled it several times over the last couple months, but I'm just not fully convinced of the short side either......yet. (The long is very specialised and targeted at a certain area I felt would recover quickly, so sort of a micro strategy on the long position).

nunthewiser · 3 June 2009

Cartman said:
i'm with u Nun ---- i'm holding neither ----

but my hands are up ---- i wish these bludy police would stop knocking at my door !! ---- ive done nothing wrong -----

i hold longs mate , have done for some time , all in profit with the exception of ADY which i am square on .....but that isnt index trades as this thread suggests so will keep them to myself

LOL re cops .the trick is to get yaself a decoy blame everything on them

beamstas · 3 June 2009

nunthewiser said:
that was the 1/6/09

stop teasing me

was just about to form a cheer squad for you

I was joking about the 50 contracts

sammy84 · 3 June 2009

Nun I have been long for a while now. Its posted somewhere near the beginning of this thread when I went long. Sat out of the market 3 weeks ago, then went full risk allocation long last friday (I posted that somewhere here as-well in this thread, so no hindsight stuff).

I dont find much point placing shorts for minor retracements when obviously our market is wanting to move higher.

nunthewiser · 3 June 2009

sammy84 said:
Nun I have been long for a while now. Its posted somewhere near the beginning of this thread when I went long. Sat out of the market 3 weeks ago, then went full risk allocation long last friday (I posted that somewhere here as-well in this thread, so no hindsight stuff).

I dont find much point placing shorts for minor retracements when obviously our market is wanting to move higher.

yeah seen your calls in chat and around here .same with MRC,s and cartmans .......hindsight never crossed my mind

yep i have been shorting for more and more smaller moves of late and frankly the extra work and quick stopouts /quick skims hasnt really been worth the extra screen time and work ( i have made a buck and i do realise this is a strategy and succesful one for many here ).... im a lazier type trader

so currently its only ivant and beamsta dreaming that they have actual financial exposure to a direction of the main indicies at present ?

TH doesent need to answer as he prolly been short and long 58 times in the time spent typing this

ivant · 3 June 2009

Frank D said:
Ivan,

Your trading the secondary trends of the market, but forgetting the
primary trends and reversal of those trends.

Back into 2003 the reversal towards the midpoint occurred in
3-months.

If it follows the same pattern , which no doubt it will, the same thing
can happen (4400). The only thing unknown is the speed of which it
gets there.

If it hits 4400 quicker than expected in this Quarter or early 3rd
Quarter, then 4400 is a brick wall.

I hope it doesn’t hit 4400 soon, as I prefer the market to follow my
model precisely and move in Monthly timeframe wave patterns, as it
allows more rotation and potentially more opportunities to make money

Therefore 4042 is seen as random resistance in June (sycom 4088)

Imo, it’s not the biggest rally in history, it’s simply reversing the
previous down move in 2008 & early 2009.

I like to think more like that it was the biggest correction in history, and this is simply reversing some
of that down move.

Believe me, I understand the primary trend very well. And in fact, my view, or "belief" (as van Tharp likes to say) about the world economy is that we will retest the lows. Aside from one bear market, since the great depression (inclusive) we have had all of them die in October early November. This economy is still shedding jobs at a rapid pace, and one month of positive numbers (or less than shocking numbers) does not signal a come-back. Housing will slide due to increasing foreclosures (rising unemployment), and this is not going to away. Today's GDP number sounds great, but how much of that component was due to Government spending and the trillions of dollars we will have to repay? The green shoots aren't there. The stock market is factoring in a recovery within a few months around the world. I'm sorry, I don't see it. So ultimately we will retest the lows, I have my money on that. So if you do separate the primary and secondary trends as you say you do, the primary is the ultimate collapse, the secondary is a potential move to 4400, and the one I am trading is a pullback to 3720, or maybe 3850 if this goes poorly.

Cartman said:
Perhaps a little poetry to paraphrase that Frank

The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.

But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
And the result much less gruesome.

Nice

nunthewiser said:
ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?

hands up those currently holding long positions ?

dont want no "yeah m8 i entered yesterday" claims.just intrested on who doing what basically

i hold no shorts , have not entered any longs today , merely continuing to ride a few individual stock longs which were posted around these threads on entrys

just intrested ,not trying to hand out badges or stickers to anyone

Im short mildly. 65 mini contracts, average 3918.5 (added another 15 today at 4000).

Oh and lastly, my trade comes together on one event. I am bullish the USD as it has come down rapidly and is now around a crucial Fib level on several charts (against Euro, AUD and the canadian dollar amongst the most important ones). In addition, I am short crude again. Check out the Morgan Stanley commodities index ($CRX). If the S&P drops below 930, we are back in the trend. That means next stop is 880.

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? suspense music

MS+Tradesim

beamstas

ivant

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

Mr J

ivant

Frank D

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beamstas

sammy84

nunthewiser

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MRC & Co

nunthewiser

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sammy84

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ivant

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