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SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

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well by the way the market went today and its performance on friday, im sure we going to get to 4000 sooner than we think!

i gotta close my shorts tomorrow!
 
Yeh, I just worry for you Ivant, that we have already seen profit taking in this range and now institutional buying is starting again.

I also think the SPI should be higher from a fundamental perspective, relative to other indices and with a rising AUD, it would be a good place to lay down your bets for international speculative capital. I really think spreads on the long side could start coming into our market from abroad.

Add in a ravaged USD, Treasuries falling with yields still too low and some huge liquidity boosts coming into the global economy from CBs and Governments, and you can start to see why this rally has it's foot on the peddle.

Nowhere else to put your coin, other than gold (which is about the only thing near it's high). Hard assets look to also be seing some of the coin, as financial assets look a wreck in these times. Negative real yields to be seen from them probably yet.

 
Broadway said:
Yea I saw a tonne of asx20 EOD 1610 volume.
3950 should be easy, if not higher.
Might need to wait a week or two, but it should get there.
Click to expand...

there were some MSCI index re-weights done on friday which caused all that stock volume in the match as portfolio managers rebalanced
 
We will see about the equities, I could be wrong. I had my first losing month in May since last May. I lost 5% of my capital. As to why I am short, it is in my blog. There are a few charts there
 
Once again when Ivan has gone short, I have started going long. Entered longs last friday in the US and AUS. Momentum seems to be favoring a run higher. Money management will save the day if I'm wrong.
 
rossw said:
there were some MSCI index re-weights done on friday which caused all that stock volume in the match as portfolio managers rebalanced
Click to expand...

Ross, could you explain that in a little more detail to a newb like me?

Much appreciated.
 
looks likes its going to be another one of those 'underwater off the bat' type trades for ya Ivan?

Bloomberg just showing up at 939.71
 
Broadway said:
Ross, could you explain that in a little more detail to a newb like me?

Much appreciated.
Click to expand...

Have a look here. http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/equity/index.jsp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSCI_World

MSCI International Equity Indices are the most widely used global benchmarks in the industry. Its like the All Ords for the world.

They got re-shuffled so all the world funds & ETFs that track it will be shuffling to equal the new weightings in each company. hardly a new money trade, just book keeping.
 
a nice lil short ......... right about ...............................here?

oops better add a number

942.20


for the record this is not a trade as such just an observation
 
Check these figures :

The US alone has interest-bearing liabilities of $30 US Trillion .
So far the US Fed & Treasury have pumped about $3 to $4 trillion into the system compared to base money of about $800 billion before the the crash .

Whats the total worth of of the US ?


Confused " me also .. possible $176 trillion .
 

Ok cool, I get that.Thx.

But how does that make all the 1610pm asx20 volume triple?

Heres BHP as an example, but all the asx20 looked the same on friday avo.

And is it just coincidence that we rallied since then?
 

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nunthewiser said:
a nice lil short ......... right about ...............................here?

oops better add a number

942.20


for the record this is not a trade as such just an observation
Click to expand...

I think in a day or two we will be below ES940.

 
Broadway said:
Ok cool, I get that.Thx.

But how does that make all the 1610pm asx20 volume triple?

Heres BHP as an example, but all the asx20 looked the same on friday avo.

And is it just coincidence that we rallied since then?
Click to expand...

Mate you don't get it. Clearly by the second line in your post. It was fundies doing business. Simply swapping and re balancing portfolios with the arbs. If you did get it you would of noticed that all week the SPI was running 15 or more points away from the XJO, higher and lower on days. Friday it got squared up. The fundies needed to move a lot of stocks, both buys & sells, on the close of biz Friday as per the index reshuffling. The arbs helped them out. Of course they did what arbs do and got there clip off the top by getting 15 points all week.

BUT,

You just want it to be a positive like you always do. Thou you haven't answered me about why is it a positive when there was equal amount of LARGE sellers?????
 
ivant said:
Because the charts are pasted into there and the explanations are given. Why repeat myself?
Click to expand...
No need to. Paste them in here first. Then in your blog make a link to ASF. Simple!
 
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