So is the COVID-19 drama over, or will this go on for some time?

[matty77]

Seems to be countries are starting to get Covid19 under control, is this the start of the end for Covid19 or just the beginning?

Will we see economies start to come back to normal as quarantine is lifted or do people still think it will get worse?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

It will get different.

 

[Bill M]

I don't think we are anywhere near over yet and even if the lock downs were lifted the economy will take a long time to get back to normal.

 

[IFocus]

Seems to be countries are starting to get Covid19 under control, is this the start of the end for Covid19 or just the beginning?

Will we see economies start to come back to normal as quarantine is lifted or do people still think it will get worse?

Controlling the virus by locking down and reducing the numbers is the easy part, then what?

Release the controls and hope reinfection rates don't take off so far it looks like there is very little room to do so particularly in the winter months.

Even if you can open up a single country makes little difference when the rest of the world is still locked down.

Requires a game changer treatment of some sort IMHO.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

One also never knows if there is another one around the corner.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

Does not need to be another one, sadly, when checked, the number of infected people even in hard hit countries,whete just a few pc so many more can get infected, some very sick etc..as soon as we release the pressure will flare again imho.
As for the vaccine, just hope we can not get the illness more than once ,would be a great news.
There is this nice idea, we stop lock down, live restarts as we knew it, a few oldies in aged care die and this is over ..dream on.
I am afraid we will remember 2019 as the year we started living with covid-19, and collapsed life expectancy

 

[basilio]

I suggest this is a very hasty view. We havn't even started to see what the virus will do in poorer countries. I wouldn't suggest the US is anywhere near in control. Russia is on a very dangerous path The financial implications havn't even started.

 

[Smurf1976]

In due course we will go to "normal" for sure but what is "normal" from 2020 onward won't be the same as it was previously.

In various ways society today still wears the scars of 11 September 2001, the 1973-74 Oil Embargo, World War 2 and the Great Depression. Plenty of things today, including most obviously the economic response to COVID-19, are still based on those events.

This one is too big to not be in that league. There will be some things which never go back to how they were, just as they didn't after those other events.

Identifying what the permanent changes will be is the challenge. My thoughts include greater self-reliance and a general rejection of the 1990's - 2010's economic paradigm and its reliance on "free" trade and in particular "just in time" inventory management. Those concepts will struggle going forward with the risks firmly in the minds of literally everyone.

Things like tourism, which was really only a boom industry over the past 25 or so years anyway, may well also diminish to some extent and be more like it was previously when it was just another thing that happened, people traveled but very few places actually relied on it economically. All of sudden cruise ships carry a risk that most hadn't previously thought of, air fares are likely to be more expensive and a large portion of consumers will have neither the time nor the money to be a tourist anyway.

No doubt many other changes too but it's the non-essential things which are really going to struggle. Consumers without jobs don't buy luxuries and even those with jobs don't buy them if they're focused on fixing their financial situation.

 

[Smurf1976]

Controlling the virus by locking down and reducing the numbers is the easy part, then what?

I use the analogy of saying that at the moment just about everyone's focused on getting the car out of the ditch and back on the road.

That the car isn't driveable in its current condition has thus far escaped the attention of most. Stand well clear of the markets when the masses look under the car.....

 

[SirRumpole]

There will be less jobs no doubt, especially in the tourism industry, although with overseas travel pretty well canned perhaps the tourist industry can partially recover by Aussies seeing their own country instead of someone else's.

On the other hand, I doubt if we will be bringing in 160,000 new migrants every year for quite a while, so maybe our infrastructure can start to catch up with the people we do have and there will be less competition for jobs so maybe more jobs for locals, higher wages and therefore more consumer spending.

Cheaper homes for sure and lower rents, so just maybe there is a silver lining in some of this.

 

[Value Collector]

I was massively disappointed when I went to my local westfileds today, I ducked in to go to woolies, however the place was packed, coffee shop had massive line, and people standing around talking into peoples faces who clearly were not from their household.

The place was so quiet the last few weeks, but it seems people have suddenly lost their fear.

We better hope this virus has be well and truly contained, because if it is still lurking in the community and people are acting like this I think we will have a big resurgence.

I just don't get it, people are obsessed with finding loop holes to get around staying at home, By all means go to the shops, but get your stuff and get home, if you see a mate give them a wave and keep walking, tell them you will video call them later, don't stop and breathe in each others faces.

And don't use the 2 person exercise excuse to visit a different person every day for 4 hours. (literally have a person on my face book page posting an update each day about which of their mates they caught up with that day for "exercise", 7 days 7 different friends so far),

 

[Smurf1976]

I just don't get it, people are obsessed with finding loop holes to get around staying at home

Human psychology is always a factor. Much the same in how people invest, they don't tend to do the maths and think rationally and so on.

On the other hand though, well I think governments have played a role by making the rules so pedantic. Beauty salons are out, hairdressers are in. Restaurants are out but schools are OK. You'll be fined for learning to drive with one other person in the car but it's just fine to catch a train. Etc. Then throw in the threat of a huge fine and overall that approach has created a mentality akin to someone doing their Tax Return. An approach of dotting every I, crossing every T and following the rules to the letter with the underlying thought that you may well end up having to defend your actions with reference to the stated rules.

 

[Value Collector]

Human psychology is always a factor. Much the same in how people invest, they don't tend to do the maths and think rationally and so on.

On the other hand though, well I think governments have played a role by making the rules so pedantic. Beauty salons are out, hairdressers are in. Restaurants are out but schools are OK. You'll be fined for learning to drive with one other person in the car but it's just fine to catch a train. Etc. Then throw in the threat of a huge fine and overall that approach has created a mentality akin to someone doing their Tax Return. An approach of dotting every I, crossing every T and following the rules to the letter with the underlying thought that you may well end up having to defend your actions with reference to the stated rules.

I just don't get why peoples common sense doesn't kick in, they seem to care more about following the letter of the rules and avoiding fines than following the spirit of the rules and avoiding the virus.

I can understand why they government has made the rules with a lot of leeway and given us a certain amount of freedom, its because they were expecting us to be smart about it.

Sure, JB HIFI is open but that doesn't mean you should be out shopping or browsing for the sake of it, it's open so if you TV breaks or you need something to help you stay at home you can run out and get it, and then get back home.

it's great we can exercise, but don't use it as a loop hole to socialise, common sense means avoid all contact where ever possible with people outside your household, if we don't this thing grows at exponential rates.

 

[jbocker]

Seems to be countries are starting to get Covid19 under control, is this the start of the end for Covid19 or just the beginning?

Will we see economies start to come back to normal as quarantine is lifted or do people still think it will get worse?

I don't think ANY country has this under control that is not without huge risk of an (initial or repeated) massive breakout. We are being warned of complacency and as I see it, complacency will be our greatest undoing. Australia has been lucky in that we have been diligent and used isolation and containment which has worked well (excepting some well known blunders). Tasmania has had a classic case of what can happen if groups choose to take the risk.
We need a way out of this which is well managed and understood. That will require a little more patience and probably observation of other countries best efforts (that we can trust). Frankly I not sure I can see any just yet.
We get one good chance at this and if we blow it I don't think asking the populace to re-lockdown will be so readily accepted and therefore have very much success. And what would that do to the economy.
I would remind my friends to remain cautious.
I look at the stats of the large population countries and they ring alarmingly of under reporting, for many understandable reasons. They have a VERY long way to go.

 

[Smurf1976]

I just don't get why peoples common sense doesn't kick in, they seem to care more about following the letter of the rules and avoiding fines than following the spirit of the rules and avoiding the virus.

Just a personal observation I've made, largely through work, is that it's a minority of people who can stay the course with anything difficult and which has no definite end point. That lack of a firm end point, a specific time, really gets to them.

Psychologically this is much the same really. Not much fun, no definite end point and all a bit miserable really. Some will cope just fine but many won't.

Just an observation which I think applies to many things since it comes down to human psychology.

 

[jbocker]

I look at the stats of the large population countries and they ring alarmingly of under reporting, for many understandable reasons. They have a VERY long way to go.

Here are the top 13 Populated Countries. and Australia with Caronavirus case statistics

 

[SirRumpole]

I just don't get why peoples common sense doesn't kick in, they seem to care more about following the letter of the rules and avoiding fines than following the spirit of the rules and avoiding the virus.

I can understand why they government has made the rules with a lot of leeway and given us a certain amount of freedom, its because they were expecting us to be smart about it.

Sure, JB HIFI is open but that doesn't mean you should be out shopping or browsing for the sake of it, it's open so if you TV breaks or you need something to help you stay at home you can run out and get it, and then get back home.

it's great we can exercise, but don't use it as a loop hole to socialise, common sense means avoid all contact where ever possible with people outside your household, if we don't this thing grows at exponential rates.

It's just the fact that we live in a "free" society and we don't like being told how to live our live by bureaucracy.

But I agree that we should listen to the medical advice, if not to the politicians.

Staying away from the lines of transmission (other people) is the best thing we can do to avoid the virus, and it is a matter of commonsense, but it seems that there is a lack of that in some people.

 

[qldfrog]

I just don't get why peoples common sense doesn't kick in, they seem to care more about following the letter of the rules and avoiding fines than following the spirit of the rules and avoiding the virus.

Years of nanny state and overregulation
You install your pool fence, have it checked then do not check your kids.let's make the rules more stringent
I left the road and had an accident yet i was under the speed limit..
We need to lower it..
Well it was the first rain in 3 months....
Above real cases i witnessed
Etc
Common sense in Australia is punished.so people just try to swerve between the myriads of overruling and policing

 

[Bill M]

Here is the latest stats for Australia. If we are still getting 50 new cases a day during a lock down then what might happen if everything opened up? It could quite easily jump back to 300 to 400 cases a day and then explode from there. We are no where near over it.

 

[matty77]

So NZ have gone a lot harder with lock down then Australia to try and get rid of the virus entirely, but I just am not sure if this is actually possible, and even if they did manage to get rid of it completely then how would they managed to stop someone coming into NZ who had it when so many people dont even show symptoms.

Seems to me we are going to have rolling quarantine for a few months yet, at least until the end of the year, there might be an outbreak and then things get locked down once again. The reason I posted this topic was I have friends who are madly buying up shares at the moment calling the market cheap, saying the crisis is over and its time to get back into it. I share a slightly different and more pessimistic view where even if we get this under a certain amount of control the bad economic times have not hit us yet and may not for a few more months at least.

@Smurf1976 you make some really great points about how things changed long term since 9/11, probably something that nowdays seems normal.... really good point and I guess the new "normal" is going to be even weirder going forward.