SND - Saunders International

[finicky]

Put in a bid for 3,000 add @ 0.67 a couple of hours ago which was the last price transaction at that time, top of the queue, except for someone else's bid for <2,000 at that price. Less than a minute later and the price was @ 0.72. Let it sit and rot.

Held
Accumulate

 

[finicky]

Zero market activity from Saunders
Raised my bid for 3,000 shares from 0.67 to 0.69 where there are no competing bids.
One might ask why, given the recent down guidance of full FY25 EBITDA to the range $9m - $10m
Given that H1 EBITDA was $9.9m, that means at the lower end they are now expecting an H2 EBITDA loss of about $1m, or at best break even at EBITDA level.
HI NPAT was $5m.
So can maybe expect roughly full year NPAT of nothing, assuming similar interest, depreciation and amortisation charges for H2 to H1?

Aside from that they only downgraded revenue guidance at the lower end to $206m from $210, so how could "project delays" account for much of the lost profit? Looks like it is mostly the mentioned adverse "weather events" and margin shrinkage to me.
Almost talked myself out of accumulating.

Held

 

[finicky]

3,772 shares exchanged hands by luncheon today, 3,000 of which were mine from the sitting bid for 3,000 @ 0.69

Held
Holding
Possible Accumulate

 

[finicky]

Another acquisition along with a capital raise.

Held
Holding

 

[divs4ever]

Another acquisition along with a capital raise.

Held
Holding

View attachment 203773

ah-ha

that might explain some recent price-action ( and a possible 'leaking ship ' )

i will wait for the ann. and assess

my exposure to SND is via some LICs but that will not exclude me from buying in directly if the numbers are sweet enough

 

[finicky]

@divs4ever the "recent price action" is more likely explained by the terrible H2 EBITDA guidance (see above)

 

[galumay]

Will be interesting to see who the target is.

 

[finicky]

Looks like another excellent bolt on, very compatible with what Saunders does and it also looks a fairly cheap deal. The price is $30m before transaction costs and Aqua Metro (the target) is expected to make $11m EDITDA in FY26, so acquisition only about 3X target's fairly predictable forward EBITDA. Also the earn-out part of the $30m price is based on 4X average estimated EBIT for FY25 and FY26. In my limited attention to these acquisition earning ratios in the past this looks a cheap price. The two already substantial Saunders' shareholders get a good deal for the equity placement @ $0.65 a share and the new shares aren't escrowed but I'm not really bothered, as 7.7m is not a lot of shares at and at least they are already holders. The equity portion of payment to the vendors is nominally priced @ 0.75. The market today is a trickle but at least it's not selling.
Also Aqua Metro has this sort of water infrastructure business to utilities and govt agencies almost wrapped up in Victoria so with Saunders reach and heft business to Aqua metro can be expected to expand into the other eastern states at least?

Held