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REX - Regional Express Holdings

The REX stock price is starting to show some life, my bet is that it will slowly drift up to around $1.20 before the end of the year.

Anybody willing to provide a TA view? I bought in April based on the discount to NTA and management.

Cheers
 
The REX stock price is starting to show some life, my bet is that it will slowly drift up to around $1.20 before the end of the year.

Cheers

With the removal of the carbon tax, there probably is some capital gain to be made. But it really is a dog of an industry...

And the discount to NTA doesn't mean much in this case. The assets may be worth what is listed on the books, but when you put them to use you get very little in return...
Unless management start selling off planes and returning funds that is.
 
And the discount to NTA doesn't mean much in this case. The assets may be worth what is listed on the books, but when you put them to use you get very little in return...
Unless management start selling off planes and returning funds that is.

I agree with you, Klogg. Often they end up mothballing the aircraft because there is no market for them. As for REX, my 30 second look at them left me wondering how they can increase their fixed assets by ~$50m but have their depreciation expense fall.
 
The following might have something to do with the SP movement.


Although the subsidy isn't as generous as back in John Howard's day.

From REX's website re. profit, fuel/carbon taxes and no dividend: http://www.rex.com.au/NewspaperClip/index.aspx


Nope, no holding REX.
 
The REX stock price is starting to show some life, my bet is that it will slowly drift up to around $1.20 before the end of the year.

Anybody willing to provide a TA view? I bought in April based on the discount to NTA and management.

Cheers

I see REX has got to $1.10 maybe it will get to $1.20 at the end of 2015! It is a pity i sold out in November at $1.02 but there were too many other opportunities tempting me at the time.
 
I see REX has got to $1.10 maybe it will get to $1.20 at the end of 2015! It is a pity i sold out in November at $1.02 but there were too many other opportunities tempting me at the time.

It is currently at a significant level presently and needs to break and close above $1.10 for this move to continue in my opinion . I have attached the weekly analysis chart for Rex.

 
I think Rex is a good stock to look at again, reasons are below:

- A healthy CAGR in Revenue of 6% over the last 4 years.

- Lack of competitors in the space, over 16 regional airlines have gone bankrupt since 2001 which has allowed REX to maintain good margins.

- I have analysed the routes that REX operates in; 66% of routes are ones with REX as the sole operator with an average ticket price of $ 570. 19.6% of the routes with REX being one of 2 operators and 14.2% of routes have REX as on one of 3 operators. While net margins are slightly better than Qantas (6% vs 5%), the P/E(TTM) is only 7.14 compared to 13 for Qantas.

-Having personally flown REX for work several times, I do speak from experience when i say that there are usually no alternatives to the routes they fly to and the ticket fares are not cheap.

- Also for FY19, REX stands 2nd in On-time departures and the cancellation rates are lowest in the industry.

- The low debt will provide wriggle room when the economy slows, Total debt currently stands at about $ 8 million , debt to equity ratio of 3.9.

- Own 2 pilot training academies, the Australian airline pilot academy, started in 2007 and the second one acquired just this quarter; ST aerospace academy.

- Also own 100% of Pel-Air which bids on miscellaneous services such as Air Ambulance
 
I think Rex is a good stock to look at again, reasons are below:

Welcome to ASF Lewis. As you have already discovered, @Joe Blow tries to be accommodating where possible so good luck with your pick in this month's comp

REX used to fly in our area as well and were always efficient as you say. Not sure why they ended up moving on but another airline has taken up the routes so maybe they swung a deal to suit them both.
 
Hey Barney, Thanks for the greetings and Yes, i have noticed Joe's hospitality already .

Unsure on the area you are talking about but the management is very good at managing assets, you have to be when you operate in the airline business i suppose.
 
The third force gets an upgrade

 
It makes sense, remote areas still require a service, even if it is cut back.
Most medical specialists with practices in regional cities commute to these places from their capital city bases. As well, the wheels of govt must still reach out. And all the other services, like legal/ justice

Of the 76 service requests (regional airline carriers will be provided assistance to maintain a minimal weekly schedule to regional and remote ports), some 38 were approved.

WA (services regulated by state govt) gets one flight a week ex-Perth to Albany, Esperance and Carnarvon.
Qld (services regulated by state govt) gets a mix, but all One flight a week on Northern routes ex Cairns and Townsville, as well as ex-Brisbane. Most are multi-stop routes out west.
Qld (unregulated): one a week Townsville-Cairns, Cairns-Mt Isa, Cairns-Bamaga
SA (unregulated) get most services, one flight a week; Pt Lincoln, Mt Gambier, Broken Hill, Ceduna, Whyalla, Kangaroo Is.
Vic (unregulated) get all services, 1-2 flights a week: Mildura, King Is/ Burnie, Albury/ Wagga, Merimbula
NSW (unregulated): 1-2 a week SYD to most places, Cooma, Moruya/Merimbula, Broken Hill/Dubbo, Orange, Bathurst/Parkes, Grafton/Lismore, Wagga, Albury, Griffiths/Narrandera,
 
Interesting post Donna, as I said it does make complete sense, your post highlights it.
 
Interesting post Donna, as I said it does make complete sense, your post highlights it.
but here's the joke:
"Support program announced by Deputy Prime Minister, the Hon Michael McCormack", and, look, no service to Armidale, NSW, home of Blowhard Barnaby
 
REX had a very nice recovery over the last 4 weeks or so, 40c - 85c, leaving out the 'wicks' on daily candles.
With government support, looks like one to check out in another downwave?
 
REX gave an interview to a major daily last week that it was "thinking about flights between capital cities" but forgot to inform the market by way of an Announcement.
Over to Joe Aston for a bit of colour:
"Not sufficiently definitive?! Sharp had identified the cost ($200 million), the method of fundraising (“through the sale of new shares in Rex”), the number of planes (10), their routes (“The plan is to start flying between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth”), the timeline (“early next year”) and the number of interested parties (“we have been talking to half a dozen private equity and investment banking entities… and will narrow that down to one in the next three weeks or so”). Oh, and Rex has already discussed amending its flying license with the Commonwealth’s air safety regulator. Any more definitive and Rex would be selling tickets already!

The whole sequence lays out a stupendous failure of elementary public company compliance by the airline’s leadership."
 

I can't bring myself to invest in any airlines right now. Hard to see a bright future for them when their is no light at the end of the tunnel and commercial aircraft services don't look to be returning to normal for a very long time. Commercial flights are down ~67% from 120 days ago.


(https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics)
 
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