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Rare Earths

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rcw1 said:
Dunno but where will the Ukraine ore get processed / refined?
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probably anywhere that there is no unexploded ordnance , but Ukraine ( even the part that Russia doesn't want ) is rather large , they already have the Chernobyl area semi-toxic and they still own a nuclear power plant or two

the main worry will be a shipping port ( assuming Russia annexes Odessa ) but if the EU buys all the refined metals , no worries straight through Poland or Romania .( by road and train )

they will have to rebuild a big chunk of Ukraine infrastructure just plan for REE processing ( do it near the resource )
 
I do get a vibe of another craze and bubble possibly brewing, but dismissing it all as "hype"? A lot of money is being committed and in the case of Iluka's Eneabba, the federal government is risking $1.65 billion minimum, as it is a non recourse loan and will only be paid back from profits presumably. Iluka itself is taking a big dollar risk and I think the earthworks and a beneficiation plant have already been completed, with refinery components already ordered. Iluka is a $1.6B market cap profitable zircon and rutile producer, it is not a wannabe explorer or pure developer of the like that make managements rich while they fail.

But mainly why I don't see it as hype (yet) is that the CCP China has shown its hand and malign motive. The West has been incredibly complacent, possibly because China bribes one way or another the West's politicians and advisors. But the cat's out of the bag and China's monopoly has been revealed as a weapon. It's not hypothetical now and can't be soothed away by compromised politicians like Joe Biden. It can't be relied upon as supplier of these indispensable minerals and no compromise deal will change that perception in the West now imo.

How you 'play it' might be a producer like LYC, or a developer like ILU or ARU, or an explorer for an in and out speculative trade. Or not at all if hype is not your thing. And maybe it will turn into a nothingburger in the realm of stock investments. This is not a ramp - I only own 1,000 ILU shares and since I am trying to buy more this is not the time to promote it if that were my motive.

Eneabba - Resource Development | Iluka Resources

Since the 1990’s Iluka has strategically stockpiled the monazite produced at its Narngulu Mineral Separation Plant, at its operations at Eneabba, Western Australia.
iluka.com

 
probably not a nothing-burger but possibly only a cheese-burger if alternatives are found while REE prices are 'through the rough ' , a guideline is the magnets in wind turbines , which have moved to substitutes as demand for units NOW has increased

nobody wants to pay $US 1 billion for each wind-turbine ( 75% of the efficiency at less than half the cost will nearly always win )
 
finicky said:
the federal government is risking $1.65 billion minimum, as it is a non recourse loan and will only be paid back from profits presumably.
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As of yet i see no off take agreements for Iluka, very unusual,
Iluka will attempt to refine both heavy and light ore,
Lynas still sends oxides to China for refinement,
Even the processing that does take place outside China relies on Chinese suppliers for the chemical reagents.
There are probably multiple areas within the processing chain that display an absolute technical advantage to China.
 
Oh well give up then. Embrace your Commie Chinese masters like Albo. How could we possibly get chemical reagents from anywhere but China? After all, they invented everything. It's going to be great under them.
 
finicky said:
Oh well give up then. Embrace your Commie Chinese masters like Albo. How could we possibly get chemical reagents from anywhere but China? After all, they invented everything. It's going to be great under them.
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WES did suggest they had the skill-sets needed to process in Australia , when they tried to acquire LYC

maybe not hopeless , but would WES move here ( ILU ) either by a take-over offer or JV offer

but Australia does do something well .. red/Green tape
 
finicky said:
Oh well give up then. Embrace your Commie Chinese masters like Albo. How could we possibly get chemical reagents from anywhere but China? After all, they invented everything. It's going to be great under them.
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LYC possesses the people and the technologies and partners required to refine without Chinese involvement, only taken them 5 or so years.

rcw1 awaits with keen interest confirmation the first ever refinement of heavy REE outside of China, later this calendar year.
by LYC.

@finicky
if LYC can set up its business / market partners and acquire the technologies and build requisite infrastructure, rcw1 cannot see why Iluka cannot do the same, it will just take time. Doubt whether 2026 is within their reach.

Nice goal though … but hey if they reckon 2026 then who is rcw1 to doubt them???

REE believers do know one thing is for for sure and quite frankly has absolutely nothing to do with magnets, chips, electric cars etc… etc …

it is the true demand trigger in todays volatile world and what makes the U S of A extremely nervous (perhaps another word best describes this …

REE application in defence projects.

Particularly fighter jets and some other military assets require an inordinate amount of medium to heavy refined REE.

Rcw1 anticipates military REE application wont change anytime soon.

Rcw1 opinion
rcw1 is a LYC believer and trades the stock.
Have traded ILU

Have a very nice Easter Monday.

Kind regards
Rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
REE believers do know one thing is for for sure and quite frankly has absolutely nothing to do with magnets, chips, electric cars etc… etc …
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we will see fairly soon , and iPhones being made outside of China ( IF the can ) will be the proof

the US markets will not be happy if Apple hits a nasty speed bump ( caught in the tariff war )
 


Just out of interest - why exactly are rare earths required in defence? What exactly do they do that other metals cannot? Are they so essential that armies will fall apart in a day/week/year if supply isn't resumed?

In 2020-2022, rare earths were valuable for neodymium and praesodymium, which were sold as magnetic elements critical to EV motors and wind turbines. An essential part of the green revolution that has now been overthrown. It was typical of miners to report on deposits in % of heavy and light rare earth oxides as a proxy marker for the two elements.

And now, in 2025, rare earths have somehow been reinvented into being critical for defence and chips?

Don't get me wrong. It's clear rare earths are necessary in industry and I agree it is sensible for a nation to secure its own reliable supply when so much is held by one actor. In fact, they should go ahead and do the same for lithium too.
But I think new players should heed a word of warning- it was only recently that rare earths were pitched as a critical mineral essential to any nations future energy security, before several miners crashed 90%+ and rare earths were no longer of interest.
 
In a word, Communications. Those with an advantage in this will probably win any war. Some 18 yo seaman with acne and game skills on a ship with a enough rare earths to fit on the edge of a rollie in communication with a satellite and ground assets with a similar small amount of rare earths is worth 100 brigades.

gg
 
waterbottle said:
Just out of interest - why exactly are rare earths required in defence? What exactly do they do that other metals cannot? Are they so essential that armies will fall apart in a day/week/year if supply isn't resumed? ...
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Good afternoon @waterbottle
Fair enough questions ...

To value add, @Garpal Gumnut "communications comment', some light reading ... if you wish, does make for an interesting read.

DOD Looks to Establish 'Mine-to-Magnet' Supply Chain for Rare Earth Materials

DOD is advancing its goal of developing domestic supply chains to ensure continued access to the rare earth materials needed to manufacture the permanent magnets used in important U.S. military
www.defense.gov

Why China curbing rare earth exports is a huge blow to the US

As the trade war continues to escalate, China has hit back at Trump by suspending exports of rare earth minerals.
www.bbc.com


Terbium is an essential element for rare earth magnets in many key defense systems.

Terbium adds temperature resiliency to neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets used in multiple key defense systems including aircraft, submarines, and missiles.


REEs that provide the U.S. with critical access to HREEs. REEs are present in virtually every DOD weapon system, including hypersonic missiles.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
extra strength magnets for one

there is at least 15% drop in efficiency if the nearest substitute is used

but i would guess better heat resistance and other useful properties as well

but then the Yemenis are bringing down Predator drones with home-made missiles , allegedly at the rate of ( more than ) 10 a month

maybe without REEs the defense industry can't justify insane profits

will excessive costs kill REE use ( by most customers ) ... maybe
 
Thank you all for the helpful correction of my ignorance.

It would appear that RE are used more at the thuggish end of war than the refined modern day smoke signal one. This is just one of the vast holes of my ignorance which has been filled. I believe it has all been said but this article is a good summary of each element's use.

Rare Earths in Defense: 7 Crucial Insights for 2024

Discover the critical role of rare earths in defense technology. Explore geopolitical implications, supply chain challenges, and future trends in this comprehensive guide.
rareearthexchanges.com

gg
 
Looks like the REE thing might be all over. They haven't retraced to the pre-tariff / weaponization thing but not holding up well. Maybe there'll be some more news that will switch the dial but it looks like a short term sugar hit at the moment.
 
Stockhead channeling Argonaut


Brazil: The new REE processing hub​

Brazil’s mining infrastructure and bounty of high grade rare earths resources has seen experts finger it as a potential winner in the US-China trade war, as it becomes clearer the world’s leading military and economic power will not stomach being under China’s thumb when it comes to materials for car motors, electronics and especially defence industries.

“We can’t be reliant on China for production, so there needs to be new projects and they need to be financed and supported,” Argonaut Funds Management portfolio manager David Franklyn told Stockhead in a recent interview.

“The current producers like a Lynas or an MP have bumped up.”

“But also the more advanced projects are getting interest.”

Franklyn said Brazilian rare earth hopefuls look like they have the potential to produce material and still make money at prices similar to current levels.

St George’s 40.6Mt at 4.13% TREO Araxá project in Minas Gerais, also a potentially large source of steel-firming additive niobium, could be at the forefront of the next processing hub for rare earths.

SGQ is participating in Brazil’s permanent magnet-making initiative – called MAGBRAS – which is aimed at establishing Brazil’s first permanent magnet-making facility.

Other participants include major end-users such as the auto giant Stellantis, as well as emerging rare earths producers in Brazil like Meteoric Resources (ASX:MEI), a favourite of Argonaut’s Franklyn with its exposure to the especially rare heavy rare earths, and Viridis Mining and Minerals (ASX:VMM).

“The Brazilians are the world’s number three in terms of reserves of rare earths, and they’re domestically trying to establish more reliable supply chains for rare earths and permanent rare earths magnets,” Prineas said.

“They’ve got a big automobile industry which requires permanent magnets and they’ve got the MAGBRAS initiative which a lot of Australian companies with rare earths deposits in Brazil have signed up to, as well as big companies like Stellantis and motor vehicle makers who want to see Brazil emerge as a powerhouse for rare earths production and potentially permanent magnets, so they’ve got another source of supply and they’re not vulnerable to these geopolitical tensions between the US and China.”

If the initiative gets off the ground it’ll be a pretty big deal for St George.

“They obviously need domestic supply of rare earths … concentrate and we can deliver that,” Prineas said.

“The other projects I mentioned are also very, very good but one of the advantages we have, is that we are a hard rock deposit not an ionic clay deposit, and typically they have a much smaller environmental footprint.

“Ionic clays are much lower grade, require big tailings dams, big strip ratios etc. so they are a little bit harder to get into production and get permitting.

“We are located in an established mining region, and it’s a relatively small footprint that we need to actually start producing rare earths.

“We could be the first to market in Brazil in terms of rare earths projects.”

Helping that along is the company’s cooperation agreement with the State of Minas Gerais to expedite permitting approvals so they’ve got a great chance to really fast track the construction of a new mine, Prineas said.
 
LYC quarterly published 28/04/25, of note and most importantly:

During the quarter, Lynas commenced commissioning of the new Heavy Rare Earth separation circuit. A small quantity of Holmium concentrate has been produced by the circuit, and separation of Dysprosium (Dy) has commenced. First production of Dy is expected in May, followed by Terbium (Tb) in June.

This is an exciting development for Lynas and our customers and sets Lynas apart as the only commercial producer of separated Heavy Rare Earth products outside China. In recognition of the importance of these products in supply chain resilience, Lynas has engaged with target customers. Our pricing offer reflects the high demand for these products outside China rather than the market index which is based on inside China transactions.
... We expect it will take some time for customers to reorganise supply chains and agreements, however, this presents an opportunity for a sustained market restructure. Lynas is engaging with direct and indirect customers to develop new sales agreements.


LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

A few Rare Earths things did OK today. Yes, news from China that they were going to weaponise rare earths due to the tariffs. I have been saying for a little bit that rare earths will come good once trade with China is affected, for whatever reason. I thought it would be when they attacked...
www.aussiestockforums.com
 
rcw1 said:
... Our pricing offer reflects the high demand for these products outside China rather than the market index which is based on inside China transactions.
.
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