Profiting from market trends?

Re: Trends & Information

MattThomson said:

OK. Any amount? Let's go $200mil. I'll then borrow $100 mil, get the price to double, take your money, pay back the loan, and be $100mil better off. lol

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I volunteer to hold the bets... and I won't do a runner to the Bahamas.... I promise!

Re: Trends & Information

wayneL said:

I won't do a runner to the Bahamas

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More like a stumble - that would need a pretty big suitcase!

And of course you'd have to declare the money to customs when you left...

GP

Re: Trends & Information

Lol. Neway the two companies are BMN & EVE for those of you that are interested.

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OK. Any amount? Let's go $200mil. I'll then borrow $100 mil, get the price to double, take your money, pay back the loan, and be $100mil better off.

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You got a deal!!

I'll borrow $201 mill to invest in the stock myself.

If it doubles I'll double my money, so I've got enough to pay you back. Forget tax I'm off to the Bahamas.

If it doesn't you'll owe me $200M, and I'll have $201M in stock as well.

I win every way.


what is the stock - I'm ready to buy!!

Re: Trends & Information

BMN and EVE are you crazy!!

Both have market caps of $20M

And have Price to book ratios of over 6

They are extremely overvalued by any measure IMHO.

If they are still trading in years to come I'd be surprised.

Re: Trends & Information

I'm still holding the bets, right? :batman:

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Yes Wayne, just as soon as we get these $200M margin loans approved I'll email you the money!



But in all seriousness my tip, at least one of them wont be trading this time next year.

Re: Trends & Information

MattThomson said:

I was mostly confused by how some people are just using trends and trends only to help them select which shares to buy. (I'll post the new about those shares in the right threads when I buy some in a couple of days, just setting up comsec etc now. Don't want the price to jump too early )

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dont tell me its ZFX!?

thx

MS

Re: Trends & Information

lol. just watch them

Re: Trends & Information

Matt;

I see that both companies are now in the public domain, so they are up for discussion.

that its information that truly matters. From what I've seen, you have to know the company that you're investing in and what their prospects are. After two weeks of looking I have found two companies that I believe are undervalued, one massively so, and thats through ignoring trends. The massively undervalued one is due to a complicated company structure and people not taking the time to read up and learn just what is going on.

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My interest was piqued due to the *fundamental* implication contained in your post.

ENE.....Energy Ventures
This is a Venture Capital business. Their primary area of expertise, or interest are hydrocarbons (oil) and oil related technology. I notice they are or have an office in Stavanger, Norway, & as my wife is Norwegian just caught my interest.

They have no financials on their home page http://www.energyventures.no/ev/content/view/full/99 and I am assuming this is the correct company.

Without financials, it simply is not possible to calculate a valuation.
Venture Capital is a high risk business, and almost by definition *speculative*
As with all Venture Capital concerns, they provide cash for the start-up business at some point in their business cycle. Within their portfolio they have some Caltex exposure, this was the only holding I recognized at first glance.

The rest I assume are at various points in their cycles. Without having access to the underlying cash-flows of the subsidiaries, or having them consolidated into financials of the Holding company, you are flying simply on faith.

My biggest concern for the longer term would be that they are *investing* at the high end of oil prices, rather than at the trough. Therefore, as supply comes on line ...............will prices still return an attractive exit strategy for the Venture Capital firm? That is, to float as an IPO, or sell to a private buyer will be much easier in a high oil environment than a lower one.

On the information available, pretty close to zero, there is simply no way of making any kind of informed decision.


Bannerman Resources

This is a start-up miner, floated 2005, no financials, and from the *Prospectus* a self-confessed *high risk* undertaking. (Nickel mining)

Again, without a lot more information, no *investment* decision can be made.
As tech/a intimated, news of a strike etc might turbo-charge the share price, but then again, in the current market, it may not. I am assuming there will be news of a *strike* or something similar.

Without the Cost of Goods line entry, there is no way to assess the profitability margins, and thus the viability of the business outside of the current pricing environment.

To assess a *Miner* you need as a bare minimum;
Reserves
Cost of production
Price Received
Depletion writedowns

As none of these are currently available, we are back to pure speculation.

Both stocks *may* indeed double, triple, but then again, they might not.
You would seemingly be playing the *news momentum* game.
This game is as old as the hills, and goes something like buy the rumour, sell the news, but can vary. Suffice to say, it is a tough game to play.

jog on
d998

Re: Trends & Information

Again, without a lot more information, no *investment* decision can be made.

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Well we have enough information to confirm these are not worth "investing" in - simple as that!

But that does not mean you can't speculate with them.

I wont, but Matt may get lucky and double his money, much like he would if he went to the casino, straight up to the Roulette table and bet it all on Red.

The problem is if he loses he is out of pocket.

And if he wins, he thinks "how easy is this, I'm gonna do that again with another stock for even more money"

Either way you'll lose over the longterm IMHO.

Re: Trends & Information

MattThomson said:

Hey I've just started up in the market a few weeks ago and I've noticed that everyone keeps talking about market trends etc. I'm at uni doing finance and have read that trends are just random and that its information that truly matters.

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Unfortunately, in Uni you will only learn from People who only know theory or if you get somebody from the industry they will be people who earn their money from fees not from buying and investing in shares. I have a friend just completing his Master of Finance and he lost money this year and last year. (Yes lost money during a Bull market). I also have a friend who writes lecture materials for some of these Finance Courses and as far as they are concerned private technical traders who outperform the market consistently just don't exist. For the official "academic" stance on the market read "a random walk down wall street" and spot the errors.

If you are doing Finance to make money in shares forget it. If you are doing Finance to get into the industry well then fine as it is a very well paying industry.

It's a good thing too. If the big funds started doing technical analysis and proper money management then we would all be in trouble.

MIT

Re: Trends & Information

Unfortunately, in Uni you will only learn from People who only know theory

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Yup, there are people that can do, and do!

And there are people that can't do, and teach!

I have a friend just completing his Master of Finance and he lost money this year and last year. (Yes lost money during a Bull market).

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Surprise, surprise.


Out of interest, what did you friend invest on to lose so much money?

Also please ask your friends when he thinks I should buy and house and when not to?

(I wanna do the complete opposite of what he says of course )

Re: Trends & Information

It's a good thing too. If the big funds started doing technical analysis and proper money management then we would all be in trouble.

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Funds dont have the flexability of retail traders.

They are simply managing masive amounts that can move stocks on entry and exit.
There reaction time is like a boxer on drugs.

Regardless of analysis unless they can find longterm trends to hop into across the board--then performance will be ordinary.
Of late most have been spectacular---compared to other years---but thats due more to market conditions than skill.


Finance industry re advisors------theorists pure and simple--90% of them who exist on trailing commisions regardless of performance.

And there are people that can't do, and teach!

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An often toted adage.
How then or who then teaches?
Ist it then that there are NO can do teachers?

When to buy a house

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The best time was 6 yrs ago and in 6 yrs time the best time will have been 6 yrs ago.
Ever heard anyone say "Im glad I waited 5 yrs to buy my home/IP?"
Always---wish Id have bought back then!!--when ever then was.

Re: Trends & Information

90% of them who exist on trailing commisions regardless of performance.

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Exactly!!

They spend time signing up more customers than they do trying to manage their funds!!

Re: Trends & Information

Realist said:

Out of interest, what did you friend invest on to lose so much money?

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A couple of the Macquarie funds that he thought were underpriced. The major factor was IINet, he bought in at around $3 and has been averaging down ever since.

MIT

Re: Trends & Information

I've just realised tha EVE is &*(&#. Neway , BMN is still good though, the uranium tenements in Namibia will pay off and it'll become a copy of PDN. EVE has got too much money, and the other two projects it's funding really are very spec. GO BMN!

Re: Trends & Information

A couple of the Macquarie funds that he thought were underpriced.

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Hmm, far too many people use the term"underpriced" or "undervalued" without understanding what they mean, or how exactly to value a company.

Matt, himself mentioned some mining stock was very undervalued. Yet it had a market cap of $20M, had never made a profit and has about $3M in NTA.

It is arguably valued at about 7 times more than it is truly worth at first glance.

The major factor was IINet, he bought in at around $3 and has been averaging down ever since.

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Bugger!!

Still, not a wise buy, even now at 85 cents it looks overpriced.

Re: Trends & Information

I've just realised tha EVE is &*(&#. Neway

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EVE has got too much money

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I wish I could buy a company that had too much money!!

BMN is still good though, the uranium tenements in Namibia will pay off and it'll become a copy of PDN.

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down 8% since yesterday Matt...

If you had bought it yesterday, would your stop loss have meant you already sold it at a loss?

Re: Trends & Information

Where's the faith?