Price of gold may hit $1000?

[potto_10]

hi.this is my first post....i have read a few economists opinions and some recon that the price of gold may hit $1000 maybe in five years time?

does anyone think this is possible, and if so what share would be ideal to accomodate this rise?

thanks

 

[Mofra]

Re: price of gold may hit 1000?

Welcome potto,

Just wondering where you read the $1,000 forecast from? Sounds like it would make for interesting reading either way.

If that figure is in US$ the effect of our own currency strength or weakness would be major - so as for companies who are producing gold, it would depend on whether they are doing so in Australia or are global.

Just some rambling thoughts to consider,

Mofra

 

[potto_10]

Re: price of gold may hit 1000?

hi mofra,

i was watching bloomberg and a guy called Tom Hougaard from city index said that the price of Gold may reach $1000 US in around five years time.

thanks

 

[doctorj]

Re: price of gold may hit 1000?

This is an article taken out of The Weekend Australian back in October. It bases it's forcast of gold prices based on how many barrels of oil an ounce of gold could traditionally buy. Somehow they end up and a figure of US$880 - it all makes for interesting reading at the very least.

One would have to ask if this is just the symptoms of a bullish market. People seem to come up with all sorts of plausible fundamental reasons to purchase stocks. I think it's wise to temper ones enthusiasm and mix the fundamentals with a bit of good ol' TA.

Link to article: http://www.copperco.com.au/uploads/CUO0000018.pdf

 

[Mofra]

Re: price of gold may hit 1000?

Howdy,

Thanks for the link & sources, there was a discussion here a while ago about the $US being artificially propped up by Asian currency buying looking to add stability to their domestic currencies, and this buying cannot continue at current rates. The drop off in buying would cause the $US to fall, and the traditional inverse relationship between the $US and gold would cause a rise in the gold price. Till now I hadn't really heard any predictions of the likely gold price, although I've found Robert de Crispigny's past predictions fairly accurate (unsure of his opinion for this year though).

Cheers,

Mofra

 

[markrmau]

Re: price of gold may hit 1000?

"Yen soars as currency showdown looms"

http://newsletters.fairfax.com.au/cgi-bin16/DM/y/hjBV0MGWxt0Bno0Bg6L0EQ

I think there is one last good fall in place for the USD (when china removes the USD / Yuan peg). Hopefully gold will rise as I have BGF and NCM.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I do hope you blokes bought gold.

Sorry for the late reply.

gg

 

[pixel]

I do hope you blokes bought gold.

Sorry for the late reply.

gg

... but sold BGF in time.

 

[drillinto]

Gold: A Technical View

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2013/04/a-technical-view-for-gold.html
***

 

[drillinto]

Gold Seen Crushed as Credit Suisse Forecasts $1,100 in Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html

 

[Bintang]

Gold: A Technical View

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2013/04/a-technical-view-for-gold.html
***

I view this kind of technical analysis as not much better than hocus-pocus at the best of times but when applied to the manipulated paper-gold market it is worse than useless.

Gold Seen Crushed as Credit Suisse Forecasts $1,100 in Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html

Like many articles of its type there is no fundamental reasoning given to support the assertions made by Credit Suisse. Search elsewhere and one can learn about:
- heavy demand in the physical market as the paper gold price has been pushed down
- tightening worldwide gold mine production which was happening even before the recent price crash
- surge in gold demand from China
- aggressive investment by China in foreign gold mining assets
- etc

Now don't get me wrong, I hope that Credit Suisse is correct because it will give me the opportunity to acquire more physical gold at even lower prices than we are seeing now. But if they are correct it will be a short lived opportunity. Even at $1400/oz, 37% of South Africa's gold production is non-viable:
http://minesite.com/news/which-sout...s-look-vulnerable-at-the-new-lower-gold-price
One could say, "so what, South Africa gold production is now only around 10% of total world production and has some of the highest cash costs". However,at $1100/oz there will be many other mines worldwide which become non-viable.

Anyone who is acquiring gold right now for long term 'insurance' (which is what I am doing) will be happy to see gold drop to $1100 for a while. It sure as hell will not stay there for long.

 

[wayneL]

We will see $800 and once it botoms around there it won't go above $1200 for a long time.

 

[Bintang]

We will see $800 and once it botoms around there it won't go above $1200 for a long time.

No problem for me. Like I said I treat gold like insurance. The price downside is far less then the price upside if hyperinflation blows up the world economy. At least my gold will always be worth something which according to you is $800 to $1200 per oz and I presume you are talking US$. Interestingly if gold does go to USD $ 800 per oz I think the USD/AUD will be around 0.6 so any gold I buy now at around AUD1400 per oz will still be worth close to that if gold drops to USD800 per oz.

Compare that to house insurance or car insurance. How much of your premiums do you ever get back if you never have a claim?(zero, nothing, zilch)

So gold as 'insurance' has a lot going for it. It is my portfolio protection. I never trade the up and downs thinking I can make money. I buy dips when I think I need to top up my insurance level relative to the value of my portfolio. And I will never sell my physical gold unless there is an emergency requiring me to do so. If that never happens my children will be the ultimate beneficiaries.

 

[wayneL]

..... and what of deflation blows it up?

 

[Bintang]

..... and what of deflation blows it up?

I will not need to sell my gold under that scenario.

 

[explod]

We will see $800 and once it botoms around there it won't go above $1200 for a long time.

and agree if we are talking paper gold.

In fact I believe the paper price will soon totally collapse and be worthless.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

I don’t believe gold will ultimately meltdown to lows last seen around 2008. If it meltdown it can go down below $700.

However anything is possible. In fact, if everybody becomes panic I wouldn’t be surprised if the gold price drops lower than that because that’s what bubbles do when they deflate. They drop down to pre-bubble levels, often lower.

 

[wayneL]

and agree if we are talking paper gold.

In fact I believe the paper price will soon totally collapse and be worthless.

Can you explain how the paper price and the... errr... ummm... real price diverge?

When the paper price gets to say.... $400, what other prices will there be?

 

[Dowdy]

As long as central banks are printing money, gold will always be a good investment

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Please read following link.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1411601-short-gold-for-the-long-haul

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.