PNV - Polynovo Limited

[UMike]

Waiting for a positive ann to drive this stock back to where it should be.

 

[frugal.rock]

Not getting any cheaper, the opposite. Getting it's wriggle on with low volumes.

 

[frugal.rock]

Closed $1.46

 

[UMike]

Up 51.3% from last months crazy low of $0.965.

Finally getting some wins.

 

[UMike]

positive Ann.

And then a trading halt...... Hoping it is positive FFS GDI

 

[UMike]

Looks like it may be positive.

 

[galumay]

This company just gets more and more dodgy, announcement about the results on a trial of just 3 people!!!

from the announcement -

"Professor Coates noted, “This week we passed the third anniversary of the first human implant
and remarkably the T1D patient’s sugar level has remained within a normal range at 5mmol/L with
no requirement to top up cells over the journey.”

You have to read the annex to discover the patient still requires insulin!

The April announcement showed cash down to $22m with over $13m of that already committed in CapEx, yesterdays fluff piece obviously intended to ramp the price into a cap raise. Prepare to have your pockets lightened again, shareholders.

 

[UMike]

But with financials like this:

Debt to Equity it all seems OK?

 

[galumay]

Ummm...well I guess the Debt to Equity is the one metric thats not awful, so there is that!

 

[Rypieee]

Hey folks - PNV report attached here. LMK if there are anymore small caps that are of interest. Will get to work on them.

 

[galumay]

I reckon your DCF model has a lot of extreme optimism built into it! I use adjusted FCF for my valuations and of course that doesnt compute for PNV because it doesn't have any! So straight up, my report ends on the first line, finding the business uninvestible!!

Given the lack of almost any positive financial or valuation metrics I think the only way to look at PNV is narrative speculation or rely on the greater fool theory. (probably much the same thing really).

As I said yesterday, the cash burn is ferocious too, and the pump into a cap raise with the announcement will be just another red flag if it plays out as I predict.

The other thing that would stop me taking a position, even if it were investible, would be the management issues, the recent activity is a massive red flag IMO and I would have no conviction in management's ability to execute.

This overview of the financial metrics shows the dire state of the business clearly.

 

[UMike]

Has an amazing product.....
Looking forward to it being realized.

 

[galumay]

Unfortunately having an 'amazing product' does not make it an 'amazing business'!

 

[UMike]

Significant Uplift in Cash:
FY25 Trading Result (unaudited) PolyNovo Limited (PolyNovo or the Company) is pleased to provide indicative trading results for FY25.
• Cash and cash equivalents as at 30 June 2025 were A$33.5m up from 31 March 2025 of A$22.0m after capital expenditure and repayment of debt.
• Cash flow from operations of A$15.7m for 2H25 compared to 1H25 outflow of (A$12.5m).
• Cash flow from operations is expected to increase in FY26 as the profit momentum continues in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the U.S.
• We anticipate FY25 EBITDA to be in the range of A$11.2m to A$12.4m compared to STLY of A$3.6m. • Capex required to complete the new manufacturing facility and R&D Innovation Centre is A$8.5m, to be paid in instalments during FY26. A$6.9m will be funded by collecting U.S. overdue debtors.
• In addition to positive cash flow from operations, the Company has access to an Equipment Finance Facility of A$7.5m of which A$3.2m is drawn.
Financial Highlights:
• FY25 group sales of A$118.6m up 28.9% on STLY of A$92.0m.
• Strong growth in U.S. sales of A$88.4m up 28.7% on STLY of A$68.7m.
• Rest of World sales of A$30.3m, up 29.6% on STLY of A$23.4m, including very strong performances in several markets.

Mixed reaction
Market bouncing a bit higher.
I expected a higher sales figure....

 

[galumay]

Mixed reaction

Maybe because...

Chart crime. (only include the record months and delete the rest!)

And this special one,

Thanks to @mondyinvest for the marked up images.

 

[UMike]

Yea BABY
Got another lot @$1.1 Friday Close.
.

.
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Net Profits UP 149%
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5days to early.... Might still win the comp September.

 

[galumay]

Note the increase in Income Tax Benefit, 43% of the NPAT figure!

 

[UMike]

I know nufffn about this TH
The Australian hate PVN normally but this seems like good news.
.
No idea why they need the TH.

 

[mullokintyre]

Poly wants a cracker?
Not likely, they already have a cracker in Williams.
The Oz margin call doing a number on him.
You can excuse one small error, but not three.
From The Autralian

Mick

 

[UMike]

Williams doesn't care about processes.