Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ORG - Origin Energy

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IvoryWolf said:
Interesting... Is Greg classifying ORG as an energy stock?
Click to expand...
I don't think Greg, whoever he is, is doing anything

The Global Industry Classification Standard is a four-tiered, hierarchical industry classification system developed by MSCI and Standard & Poor's to categorize companies globally, used by the financial community for analysis and benchmarking.

Here's a breakdown of GICS:
Structure:
  • Sectors:
    The highest level, encompassing broad industry groups like "Materials," "Industrials," "Consumer Discretionary," etc.
    • Industry Groups:
      Broader groups within a sector (e.g., "Capital Goods" within "Industrials")
    • Industries:
      More specific industries within an industry group (e.g., "Aerospace & Defense" within "Capital Goods")
    • Sub-Industries:
      The most detailed level, further categorizing industries (e.g., "Commercial Aircraft" within "Aerospace & Defense")
How it's Used:
    • Portfolio Management: Helps portfolio managers identify and analyze stocks and their competitors.
    • Index Benchmarking: Used for benchmarking the MSCI indexes.
    • Global Standard: Provides a common framework for classifying companies worldwide, enabling meaningful comparisons across sectors and industries.
Key Features:
    • Standardized Definitions:
      All definitions are standardized and applied globally.
    • Principal Business Activity:
      Companies are assigned a single GICS classification based on their principal business activity, with revenue being a key factor, along with earnings and market perception.
    • Annual Review:
      GICS is reviewed annually to ensure it remains representative of global market dynamics.
    • 11 Sectors:
      The GICS system currently comprises 11 sectors: Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Information Technology, Communication Services, Utilities, Real Estate, and Energy.
 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

April 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Origin Energy (ORG), the shareprice action for ORG has essentially followed general market price action as Aussie investors fled at the beginning of April (full flush as potentially noted last month), but re-entered the market again, presumably upon the concept of value investing. The potential resistance above could still pose an issue for ORG, however the dividend yield and 'utility play' could still be seen as a potential safe haven should volatility in the markets remain at play. As noted in last month's comment, observe to see if moving averages hold as an indication for potential future price direction, keeping in mind the suggestion from the charts of potential resistance above from the congestion that remains from January's trading zone.

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IvoryWolf said:
Interesting... Is Greg classifying ORG as an energy stock? Technically, ORG, just like AGL, are utility stocks, although they both share elements of energy stocks. Agreed, the names (and their activities) can be misleading in this respect, but the classifications are clear at sites such as Market Index, which can also reflect in differences in their share price performance - i.e.: top-down analysis based on sector performance.
Click to expand...
probably stretching the definition because ORG and AGL has hordes of feed-in tariff solar systems

i believe both also have some gas/LNG assets , but double check on that both those stocks ( ORG and AGL have earned a place on my AVOID list )
 
IvoryWolf said:
Interesting... Is Greg classifying ORG as an energy stock? Technically, ORG, just like AGL, are utility stocks, although they both share elements of energy stocks. Agreed, the names (and their activities) can be misleading in this respect, but the classifications are clear at sites such as Market Index, which can also reflect in differences in their share price performance - i.e.: top-down analysis based on sector performance.
Click to expand...

Origin has an upstream gas and LNG export business that of itself would normally be classified as energy.

Then it has electricity generation plus the retail of both electricity and natural gas. This is clearly a utility in terms of categorisation.

It also has an LPG (bottled gas) distribution business that fits more into transport or consumer products given it's somewhat incidental that it's fuel being delivered, it's a logistics operation in practice.

So it has a foot in more than one classification. :2twocents
 
Just checked the comp ladder and the bottom end is getting a heavy with red picks.
Perhaps gg should be supplying plenty much of soap and washing material for those of us languishing in these nether regions.
 
Antirnator said:
How low can Origen go?

I am still a noob!
Click to expand...
between July 2011 and September 2015 it slid( according to my buying history ) from $14.70 down to $6.83 and THEN did a capital raise at ( if my memory is correct ) at $4.00 , before eventually recovering

a better question is how much loss can you endure , and do you have a strategy IF the slide continues

good luck

i eventually escaped with a profit ( selling @ $9.45 ) in December 2017 .
 
divs4ever said:
between July 2011 and September 2015 it slid( according to my buying history ) from $14.70 down to $6.83 and THEN did a capital raise at ( if my memory is correct ) at $4.00 , before eventually recovering

a better question is how much loss can you endure , and do you have a strategy IF the slide continues
Click to expand...
So the recovery time will be too long for me... I can't afford to have money sitting there, Thank you.
(not held)
 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

May 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Origin Energy (ORG), the share price action has behaved itself in accordance with the moving averages as noted in the comment from last month with very little deviation (except towards the end of the month, even correcting itself rather quickly when it did deviate). It still appears as though the overhead resistance around the $11 level is impacting the share price, so it's fair to say that the share price remains rangebound between this overhead resistance and the established support level around $10.20 (the open of 3rd February).

1748603626787.png
 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

June 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Origin Energy (ORG), there was some interesting confirmation of movement observed off the previous stop loss area from the prior Darvas box formation in November/December last year at the end of May (red dotted line in the chart below), so it appears as though we have some support coming in for the stock over time, which is evidenced by some volume spikes over the last month.

Still remaining fairly rangebound overall, observe for any changes in the momentum indicators such as DMI/ADX and RSI, along with any further increases in volume, which could indicate further spurts of interest from both institutions and retail investors alike.

1751183034086.png
 
IvoryWolf said:
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre *****

June 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Origin Energy (ORG), there was some interesting confirmation of movement observed off the previous stop loss area from the prior Darvas box formation in November/December last year at the end of May (red dotted line in the chart below), so it appears as though we have some support coming in for the stock over time, which is evidenced by some volume spikes over the last month.

Still remaining fairly rangebound overall, observe for any changes in the momentum indicators such as DMI/ADX and RSI, along with any further increases in volume, which could indicate further spurts of interest from both institutions and retail investors alike.

View attachment 202640
Click to expand...


News on ORG and prescient of @IvoryWolf to post on it recently. @finicky in his ASX 200 thread has posted today on the Kraken development. I've held ORG in a few non chess sponsored accounts for my SMSF and didn't realise how well they were doing until the posting today, one of thosse set and forget stocks which underperformed for me. What a nice move and good bullish sentiment.

ASX 200

T'day from Market Matters https://marketmatters.com.au /report/the-match-out-asx-dips-then-bounces-as-trump-delays-u-s-involvement-in-the-middle-east/ "It was a mixed day on the ASX today with half the main board higher/lower with the banks and materials sectors doing some damage early but the...
www.aussiestockforums.com


org.png


gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
News on ORG and prescient of @IvoryWolf to post on it recently.
Click to expand...
timely, as the month end closed in. lol.

.


Origin Energy’s investment in UK-based Octopus Energy is poised to pay dividends, as Octopus plots a break-up designed to unlock billions in shareholder value.

Octopus, the largest electricity and gas retailer in the United Kingdom, is close to appointing bankers to lead a major corporate restructure that would see its fast-growing technology arm, Kraken, spun off into an independent entity.

Existing shareholders in Octopus — including Origin which owns a 23 per cent stake — would receive shares in the stand-alone Kraken, with a partial selldown of up to 20 per cent expected to crystallise a valuation of £10bn ($20.9bn) for the utility platform business.

That could translate to an Origin cash windfall of around £460m, validating the strategic value of its minority holding in the UK energy player....

...Origin made its $507m investment in Octopus in 2020, when the Australian energy company acquired a minority stake to gain exposure to new retail and technology markets.

Since then, Octopus has grown rapidly, adding customers and licensing Kraken to more than 65 million accounts globally.
 
Kudos to Australian Super for scuppering Brookfield's takeover of Origin 18 months ago. The upside they saw in the Octopus investment was a reason cited for opposing the takeover.

Aus Super bought into Origin heavily, holding 16.5% leading up to the takeover scheme vote. That might go some way to offset some of their less successful investments.
 
Morning Report

What Matters Today: Is it time for MM to re-enter the Healthcare Sector? - Market Matters

What Matters Today: Is it time for MM to re-enter the Healthcare Sector? Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations
marketmatters.com.au

"ORG was the standout stock on the day (i.e yesterday), surging 6.8% after the UK’s largest electricity and gas retailer, Octopus Energy, announced plans to demerge its technology platform Kraken, valued at ~GBP10 billion. Kraken Technologies, developed in-house by Octopus, offers a platform for managing energy system components, including customer billing and renewable resource management. It currently serves around 70 million customer accounts globally and aims to reach 100 million by 2027. On the surface, the move appears logical and well-timed. ORG owns a handy 23% stake in Octopus and will receive Kraken shares as part of the move. ORG could see a substantial windfall from the demerger, potentially prompting it to consider returning capital to shareholders down the track or reinvesting in zero-emission generation projects.

To put the numbers into perspective, ORG has a market cap of ~$20bn and is about to receive ~$4.8bn worth of unlisted Kracken shares. Plus, it will still own 23% of the remaining Octopus Energy.
We now believe ORG will attract buying into dips, supported by its estimated 5.2% fully franked yield over the coming 12-months, with this news an added healthy tailwind.
MM is cautiously bullish towards ORG around $11.50"

Not Held
 
Here are the details for an activated trade that appeared in the weekly scans this week for ORG:

Steven Haas | Trading and Investing on Instagram: "Here’s an activated trade for Origin Energy ( #org ) on the #asx - further details available at TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ORG/NN6GDjD2-Bullish-potential-detected-for-ORG/ #or

0 likes, 0 comments - ivory_wolf10 on July 13, 2025: "Here’s an activated trade for Origin Energy ( #org ) on the #asx - further details available at TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ORG/NN6GDjD2-Bullish-potential-detected-for-ORG/ #org #origin #originenergy #energystocks...
www.instagram.com
 
IvoryWolf said:
Here are the details for an activated trade that appeared in the weekly scans this week for ORG:

Steven Haas | Trading and Investing on Instagram: "Here’s an activated trade for Origin Energy ( #org ) on the #asx - further details available at TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ORG/NN6GDjD2-Bullish-potential-detected-for-ORG/ #or

0 likes, 0 comments - ivory_wolf10 on July 13, 2025: "Here’s an activated trade for Origin Energy ( #org ) on the #asx - further details available at TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ORG/NN6GDjD2-Bullish-potential-detected-for-ORG/ #org #origin #originenergy #energystocks...
www.instagram.com
Click to expand...
ORG has been a pleasant surprise. Everyone piling in. Agree on bullish stance.

gg
 
***** MONTHLY UPDATE FOR FULL CALENDAR YEAR 2025 STOCK TIPPING COMPETITION - @mullokintyre @peter2 *****

July 2025 - Following on from last month's update for Origin Energy (ORG), a Darvas box activation occurred from a technical perspective on the 11th July when the 200 day high of $11.69 formed on the 16th June was breached to the upside. Since then, we've had the share price increase a further $0.47, which has allowed the stop loss from beneath the Darvas box to be raised by that same amount. This is also supported by corresponding support levels of 15 minute / 4 hour intraday trading levels commonly utilised by traders.

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Greg Canavan's strategy for ORG sent out this morning:
'Fat Tail Investment Advisory'

I don't hold

"Origin Energy [ASX:ORG] hasn’t performed as well and LYC but it is still up 25% from when we added to the position during the April panic. It recently traded at decade-plus highs.

The strong performance is more about the potential stock market listing of part of the Octopus Energy business that it took a stake in back in 2020. It’s been a great investment.

The market is now seeing the value of that investment. But the underlying LNG and electricity businesses aren’t particularly great businesses. They are capital-intensive and volatile.

Earnings per share forecasts for FY26 (expected to be lower than FY25) are around the same level as FY23.

Again, the risk-reward equation here isn’t as favourable. At these prices the company is unlikely to deliver on our long-term return target of 12%.

I recommend taking some profits on the long-held position and reducing exposure from around 5% to 2%.

Action to take: Take profits on Origin Energy [ASX:ORG] and reduce exposure to 2%."
 


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