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ORG - Origin Energy

Discussion in 'Stocks I-P' started by RichKid, Sep 7, 2005.

  1. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    ORG seems to be going sideways more than up of late. It's ex div and close to breaking a recent uptrend line, may bounce off it. I like the diversified assets, especially it's eye on clean fuels.

    Currently holding but may exit if it looks bad and re-enter later.

    Anyone else have any views on why the stock is floundering of late when most energy stocks are going higher? I've heard mgmt normally give conservative forecasts but that could just be speculation, maybe a breakout setup would be the safest trade.
     
  2. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    I'm also holding these (took the opportunity to top up today). Actually, if you look at the energy sector, the XEJ index and ORG are both into relatively oversold phases of their respective price/demand cycles. Time seems good to top up with ORG (or STO, BPT, AWE etc...) if you can or definitely hold those you have for the turnaround which should come pretty soon....

    On the other hand, most utilities have had a great run of late and are starting to run out of steam (XUJ is becoming overbought). Just my thoughts of course.

    Good trading,

    AJ
     
  3. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    I'm also holding ORG in my investment portfolio. At the moment it's my worst performer (in that portfolio), being the only one I'm still losing money on :D

    However, I'm also hoping it will bounce back up off my long-term trend line, which it's sitting on right now.

    Cheers,
    GP
     
  4. ramjet

    ramjet

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    very simple ORG hedges some of its oil exposure, not all but some, secondly gas is not traded at spot here in Au as is in USA, so no leverage in terms of that either. I think mkt got a little spooked with some of the rhetoirc from management a few weeks back, also a couple projects have been delayed, couple that with an incredible stock price performance over the last few years and you have a benign stock price, under seven it looks like good value.
     
  5. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    Your comments sound very reasonable ramjet, makes it a bit clear for a change for ORG.
    Chartwise this has now broken support. I'll be watching to see how it settles, may creep over the support line again but looks like it's heading for $7 and sideways movement.
     
  6. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    Well, there's confirmation of the end of the trend imo. Unless it performs a mighty reversal next week to jump back over the trend line I'd say we'll have to wait for a new pattern. Next energy stock please....
     
  7. ramjet

    ramjet

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    I am no chartist but the chart does not look good from here, could also be people switching out of Origin to pay up for the AIH float or into Alinta itself, Alinta is the more sexy one out of two, not necessarily better or worse.
     
  8. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    Looks like $7.00 was the rebound base....

    I was hoping to get in at that price for a short term gain but was committed to BPTO which shot up heaps.... :)

    ORG UP 2.4% to $7.17 ;o)

    I'm HOLDING my existing ORG for now. Should get back to $7.40 - 7.50 within a couple of weeks.

    AJ
     
  9. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    Hi AJ,
    Yep a big jump, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw it, I was expecting some sort of retest but not that quick. Unfortunately for my bullish side it's still below the uptrend line (which is now resistance) and is generally trending down over the last few months. The psychological strength of $7 shouldn't be understimated. I note that volume was only moderate today but it closed strongly. My concern is that we've had quite a few big up days like today in the past, followed by gradul declines, see the dailies for the last few weeks and it'll be clear. A failed bullish wedge breakout last month too. The general market appears to be getting set for a rise so maybe ORG will ride the coat tails. No big news expected imo apart from ongoing drilling.
     
  10. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    It's never been below my trend line (for at least the last 5 years), that recent drop being right down to it though.

    Obviously it's just a matter of what points you decide make the best trend line.

    Cheers,
    GP
     
  11. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    Good point, each one draws and sees it differently, and there's also what you call the technicians vs the fundamentalists battle as MarketWaves for example likes to put it.

    I'll try to post my chart with my lines and maybe you can do the same if you like so we can compare how we do things. These lines we draw are just guides I suppose, the charts only follow the theory some of the time.

    Here it is, top bit is the weekly, bottom bit is the daily, I've cleaned up the lines in the second graph so you can see exactly where I drew it, it's just a rough guide I guess, prices don't really travel in a linear fashion. The far right top shows the failed wedge, images are a bit grainy but you get the idea, couldn't fit in the whole history as it was too long for an attachment.
     

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  12. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Re: ORG Origin Energy

    Eat my shorts! Back above the trendline again, what a merry dance. Can't fuss though, I've followed the plan, can't help it if the stock doesn't cooperate.

    Hey there 'Clint', still watching this sucker?
     
  13. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Looks like it might be starting another run up, perhaps into a wave 3.

    Cheers,
    GP
     

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  14. dutchie

    dutchie

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    GP - or perhaps a B ??
     
  15. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Dutchie,

    I don't really see how it can be a 'B', but then it may not fit wave counts at all that well.

    Here's my count anyway.

    Cheers,
    GP
     

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  16. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Could well be imo as corrective waves come in threes, especially as volume is weak atm. However, it has bounced off around the 50% retracement mark of wave 1 as suggested by Radge (retraces 50-70% of wave 1) I see the same general count as you guys- a wave one has ended and we've seen the end of wave 2 or are still in the midst of it; so if we see another minor top, that'll be B and we'll be looking for a wave C end at about the distance measured for wave A (the current 'wave 2'), which may take it below $7.

    Wonder if you would care to comment Nick on how to distinguish between the start of a wave 3 and a continuing corrective pattern in wave 2? I've been watching the wave count on ORG since reading your book, was using traditional support/resistance analysis etc til then. It's good when it all coincides ('confluence').
     
  17. Nick Radge

    Nick Radge

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    This is my count. Still bullish either way you look at it. It should make new highs with relative ease. GP's count looks correct on the weekly chart, where the recent low is a major wave-4 and this strength is the wave-5.

    [​IMG]

    This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

    Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
     
  18. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Thanks Nick, back to your book for me to see how to get these counts right, seems very subjective with some of these charts.
     
  19. dutchie

    dutchie

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    Yes - thanks Nick.

    Is there a technical reason why you think this is a wave 4 and not a wave A??
     
  20. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Well, whatever wave count it was, it's turned into a bit of a fizzer :microwave

    Out today at $6.97.

    GP
     

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