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Oil price discussion and analysis

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I'd want to have a trailer on, there could be a mass of short covering above that level duc. It might get defended but if it pops look out. Very big psychological level.
 
CanOz said:
I'd want to have a trailer on, there could be a mass of short covering above that level duc. It might get defended but if it pops look out. Very big psychological level.
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Spot on , don't limit yourself with a " prediction " , take what the market " gives " . That's why I love my counts , its not predictive , IT IS reactive ... be dynamic for what is what markets are ... Well outside US indice . US indice are at multi decade lows of volatility , like watching paint dry . SPX not much better than 1% range in almost 3 weeks ..
 
While both the above comments are, or can be true, this [for me] was always a target trade. Therefore I will stick to that target, if it is hit.

jog on
duc
 
Actually CL is what clued me onto the start of the bounce last night....around 21:30
 
CanOz said:
Actually CL is what clued me onto the start of the bounce last night....around 21:30
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Correlations come and go. Oil [for a while] drove the market, then faded, now who knows. I don't really bother overmuch with 'leading' markets/indicators/etc. I either like the trade, or not. If I like it...I take it.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Correlations come and go. Oil [for a while] drove the market, then faded, now who knows. I don't really bother overmuch with 'leading' markets/indicators/etc. I either like the trade, or not. If I like it...I take it.

jog on
duc
Click to expand...

Yes I agree , trade each instruments on its merits , I use correlation coefficients to gauge and there isn't a lot of real rock solid correlations outside the obvious . Oil still holding daily bullcount so buy the dips is still the MO ..

 
Yeah, I guess they work when they work. In this case it tipped me off so I got out of my cl short and stuck to my GC and bond shorts.
 
Oil bid continues with daily count remaining bull, Opec meet days away , probably wise to book some profits into it if you've been long



 
The short term trend [last 3 mths] remains downward sloping. The long trade [last 1 week'ish] was an "oversold" bounce trade, at least until the short term trend sloped upwards. Therefore, if long, discretion is the better part of valour and taking profits is the correct [technical] response to the current price.

jog on
duc
 
I see no reason to be short oil at this stage . The daily Bullcount is still alive , the old cliché , trend / friend / bend / end . Naturally opec meet is a key point in time but the only prediction i'm making is a lift in volatility . Direction is still clear as day atm
 
The volatility was certainly welcomed. Oil continued to slide but it's seems more of "sell the news" and " crowded trade" .... my bet is crude settles in a summer range now....bloody ranges.
 
The trend, for the moment, is still downward, hence the requirement for alacrity if trading the long side. It is entirely possible that the trend down flattens, and thereby provides a trading channel.

I see no sign of the end of the trend as of today.

jog on
duc
 
minwa said:
Nice one. This is what price action has over indicators that don't turn until after price has turned (strongly in this case).
Click to expand...

Sorry, I can't upload charts, but it has turned down and looks on EW to be headed for $40.

gg
 
I think the point here is my Lagging indicator is rarely wrong , it only lags 1 bar but will beat the **** out of any Subjective EW , Fib , astrology type voodoo .. reactive not predictive , clearly it doesn't take anything groundbreaking to acknowledge and declare an opec meet as a key event on an oil chart , no need to be a psychic .. If you make subjective things work for you great but it isn't part of my evidence based world , I can produce evidence ( I am not going to as that would involve revealing more about what I do than I am willing to ) , I can tell you my expectancy . I know the voodoo arts cant . Anecdotes are meaningless so please no 1 offs ... from one of my fave books
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

 
Are you able to share with us your positive expectancy based on the amount of trades using your system.????
 
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