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If the price war has imparted permanent damage to the production infra-structure, then oil/gas producers that survive are likely to do well.
Diesel is surprising until i remembered what i saw around.Looking at Australian consumption data (in the absence of reliable global figures) and comparing March 2020 with March 2019:
LPG: +2.6% (automotive use down 4.0%, other uses up 6.1%)
Petrol (all grades): -7.6%
Aviation turbine fuel: -28.5%
Aviation gasoline: -11.7%
Diesel: +8.6%
Fuel oil: -34.7%
Lubricants: -10.4%
Other products: +16.5%
Total: -3.0%
That wasn't the result I was expecting, I was expecting a far greater drop than 3% in total consumption.
A plausible explanation is that the figures are calculated on the basis of bulk sales not consumption as such and there could well be a lot more fuel sitting in tanks at service stations, fuel depots, mines, farms and even in the hands of consumers (eg in vehicle tanks) than there was previously.
For diesel in particular, it's hard to come up with an explanation which doesn't involve at least some degree of stock building at the distributor, retailer or consumer level taking place. That plausibly would also have occurred to some extent with petrol given it's primarily purchased by private consumers (unlike say fuel oil or aviation fuel) but it's the diesel figure that's most surprising.
Diesel is particularly significant given that it represented 53.4% of all petroleum products supplied in Australia during March 2020.
If consumers, fuel distributors etc have increased their stock levels then we may see a slower return to normal levels of consumption, as measured in terms of bulk deliveries, assuming there's some running down of that inventory back to more normal levels.
Figures compiled by Smurf from Australian Government data available at www.energy.gov.au
To what extent the international situation differs I really don't know but I've posted this since it's data which is available and should be accurate within its limitations (bulk sales being the point of measurement).
Yep - flat or a small decline (due to some being used in private vehicles) I could understand but the increase was a surprise.Increase was unexpected, but flat was my expectation.
I believe it will for a while to come.I put a few dollars in OOO today.
Fingers crossed!
Hoping that the supply and demand situation continues.
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