NYSE and the status of world markets

[divs4ever]

But it will affect us whether we like it or not....

very much so

BUT will civil unrest be good or bad for the ASX

also remember Harris occasionally mentions taxing unrealized gains , but WHO would be taxed like that , foreign investors might be easy targets

 

[DaveTrade]

foreign investors might be easy targets

Lets hope not.

 

[houtman]

So what should we invest in? the domestic economy? Banks? maybe some big winners in the USA due to lower tax rates on companies?

For me,
If the Red team wins - PM's, mainly gold, some silver.
If the Blue team wins - PM's, mainly gold, some silver.

Different paths, both leading to continued inflation.

Keeping a solid cash balance until the dust has settled.

 

[Knobby22]

If Trump wins and controls both houses, then he can increase the in debt by a huge amount like last time he was in.
Last time he added greatly to the debt with $7.8 trillion added. His policies this time will add about the same amount of debt. $7.8trillion.

Harris would like to add at least $3.5 trillion but she won't be allowed to. Realistically, if Harris wins she won't control Congress so won't be able to implement her agenda.

The bond market though appears to be assuming Trump will win and is demanding higher yields or maybe its just that the economy is strong.

Trump Trade or America’s strong economy: What’s pushing up bond yields?

US bond yields have been on a tear since the Fed cut its policy rate last month, a counter-intuitive move that’s being attributed to a stronger than expected jobs market, and Donald Trump.

www.theage.com.au

 

[DaveTrade]

Some projections for the next bull run if this low holds:

 

[DaveTrade]

This Small-Cap Surge Could Spark the Market’s Next Rally
September 22, 2025 | 4 Minute Read

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We've been saying for years now that the current bull market is likely to be one for the ages.

Not everyone has been as enthusiastic. One of the biggest complaints about the market over the past couple of years has been the (supposed) narrow leadership. Gains were concentrated in a handful of mega-cap tech names.

There's used to be some truth to that...

But now, with small-caps finally joining the party, the rally is broadening out. The final domino has fallen. If there are still traders out there with a dug-in bearish stance...

Well... we're happy to have them on the other side of or bullish bets!

For nearly three years, small-cap stocks were stuck in the wilderness.

No more. The Russell 2000 Index -- which tracks the smallest 2,000 publicly traded companies in the US -- went a record 969 days without setting a new all-time high. That was the longest drought in the index’s history.

But that streak has finally ended. This past Friday, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed at a brand-new record high.

It’s the first time since 2021 that small-caps have made this kind of move.

For investors who are (still?!) waiting for a sign that the bull market has more room to run, this is it.

Why Small Caps Matter
Small-cap stocks are more sensitive to the U.S. economy than their large-cap cousins. They don’t have the global reach of your Apples and Microsofts. Instead, they rely heavily on domestic growth, consumer spending, and credit conditions.
That’s why small-cap outperformance is often considered a leading indicator of market health. When investors rotate into these riskier, less liquid names, it shows confidence that growth is ahead.
More importantly for us... It’s also a signal that the bull market is broadening and not just riding on the coattails of a handful of mega-cap tech giants.

This is key because one of the healthiest features of a bull market is rotation. Money doesn’t simply pile into one corner of the market forever. It moves around.

After years of underperformance, small caps are now showing new six-month highs relative to large caps.

The following chart is from the brilliant JC Parets ("The Chart Whisperer") of TrendLabs. If you're not following him, you're missing some of the sharpest analysis out there.

It shows how IWM, which tracks small-caps, has been gaining ground on the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB), which tracks the biggest companies.

Against the Nasdaq-100 (the blue line) the rotation is even more striking.

This is classic bull market behavior: leadership broadens, and money moves into previously unloved areas. The fact that small-caps are breaking out now suggests this rally still has legs.

The fundamental case for small-caps is just as compelling as the technical one.

Valuations: Small-caps are cheap relative to large-caps, cheap compared to their own history, and even cheap compared to bonds. Equity risk premiums are still at attractive levels, suggesting investors are being paid for the risk they’re taking.

Sentiment: This year has seen heavy outflows from small-cap funds. Allocations are at or near record lows. That creates the setup for a classic contrarian trade -- a short squeeze that could fuel further gains.

Macro: With the Federal Reserve finally set to kick off another round of rate cuts, small-caps stand to benefit. Lower borrowing costs matter more to smaller, credit-sensitive firms. On top of that, any acceleration in global growth would also feed directly into small-cap earnings.

These factors combine to paint a bullish backdrop.

Risks to Watch
Of course, no investment case is bulletproof. A deep U.S. recession would hurt small-cap returns. But even in that scenario, given how stretched large-cap valuations have become -- especially in tech -- small-caps could still outperform on a relative basis (which is the basis that counts).

The key things to watch are whether earnings revisions continue upward, whether technical breakouts hold, and how the macro environment develops with Fed policy.

For years, skeptics have warned that the market’s rally was unsustainable. They said the bubble would burst any minute. Yet here we are, with small-caps breaking out to record highs.

History shows that bull markets rarely end before small caps have their turn. Well, now it’s their turn. And that’s great news for investors who remain bullish on U.S. equities.

Small-caps are cheap, under-owned, and finally showing strength.

That’s not a red flag -- it’s a green light.

Have a great week,
Bill Spencer
Editor-in-Chief, True Market Insiders