NXL - Nuix Limited

[galumay]

Mind boggling. No doubt ASIC will do nothing.

 

[bk1]

Continuation of the breakout of Friday.
I am aware that there maybe matters still before the Federal Court.
Genuine breakout so far..

 

[bk1]

Closed with conviction on Friday, but what next?

 

[dyna]

Our intrepid Capt'n Chaza has taken a shine to this , but he's brave .
After a few rums last night , I got a bit brave but chickened out on making a move this morning .
S.P. still holding up on a down day , around the $ 2.40 mark .
Note the volumes , though . A fair bit gone through in the last few days .
( Somebody , somewhere.........Knows something . )

 

[bk1]

Possible breakout, been brewing for a while in my opinion.
My largest position..

 

[dyna]

Our intrepid Capt'n Chaza has taken a shine to this , but he's brave .

I think our main man has just doubled down on this ( 10 minutes ago ) .
That's how I read his enigmatic post , anyway .

 

[galumay]

Mind boggling. No doubt ASIC will do nothing.

Update - they did nothing, we can only hope the splitting up of ASIC and resetting expectations will lead to the revamped regulator dealing with shonky stonks like NXL and retail investors might have some real protection for their capital.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

around $3.60 before 18 Aug numbers, then a jump and now $5.50

FY24 Highlights
• ACV and Statutory Revenue growth in excess of strategic objective
• Successful launch of Nuix Neo solutions, with strong Nuix Neo ACV growth
• Diversified sources of growth between new and existing customers, and new and existing product offerings
• Strong growth in Underlying and Statutory EBITDA
• Underlying and overall cash flow positive

 

[bk1]

Volume has been rising the past few sessions..
$6 handle in range ?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and where are we... ?
Yesterday's AI meltdown saw a 20 percent drop - worse intraday - but also there was an update in relation to expected results for the half year ended 31 December 2024 (1H25), along with commentary in relation to anticipated full year Annualised Contract Value (ACV) outcomes.

 

[finicky]

I see a few are interested in this stock. Market Matters commented this morning.
Not Held

Nuix (NXL) $3.99

We covered NXL earlier in the month here post a soft trading update that saw the stock “hit for six”. At that time, we added NXL to our Hitlist for the Emerging Companies Portfolio, but we’re not yet ready to hit the buy button. On Monday, they reported 1H25 results that didn’t provide much new news (given the recent update), and what new information we saw we viewed as a net positive, yet the share price has continued to tank. It’s a volatile stock, and tech has not been in favour in the past few weeks, so that’s the only aspect we can see; there was nothing new in the results to concern us.

Annual contract value (ACV) of $216.2m was in-line with the Jan guide ($215-217).
Underlying EBITDA of $27.1m was in-line with the Jan guide ($26-28m).
Free cash flow of $5.8m was mildly ahead.
They closed the 1H25 with cash of $30m and no debt.
Further, the company expects revenue growth to exceed operating cost growth in FY25 with annualised contract value growth forecast in the range of 11% to 16% in constant currency. The stock was down 9% yesterday closing sub $4, having halved since their November 2024 high of ~$8.

While price action will keep us on the sidelines for now, NXL will be retained on our Hitlist

 

[Dona Ferentes]

where  are we  now ?

.
Trading Update
.
The Company is pleased with the growth and quality of its sales pipeline despite the lengthening of the procurement cycle. However, recent increases in uncertainty and volatility in the geopolitical and global economic landscape, while creating opportunities, are impacting the predictability of deal closure timeframes.

Against this backdrop Nuix currently expects Annualised Contract Value growth for the full year to be in the lower end of the previously advised range of 11-16% in constant currency.

Nuix continues to execute on the rollout of Nuix Neo, expects revenue growth to exceed operating cost growth (excluding net non-operational legal costs) and expects to be Underlying Cash Flow positive for the full year.

.
my homework ate this dog

 

[Dona Ferentes]

where  are we  now ?
.
Trading Update
.
The Company is pleased with the growth and quality of its sales pipeline despite the lengthening of the procurement cycle.

.... let's pull guidance and see what happens

.
"While the deal pipeline remains strong, a level of uncertainty in customer decision making means that closure times around specific transactions have become more difficult to predict, particularly by the end of this current financial year.

"Given the broadened range of potential outcomes by the end of the financial year, the Company believes it is prudent to withdraw the previously estimated Annualised Contract Value target range of 11-16% in constant currency, along with the strategic targets relating to revenue growth and underlying cash flow.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

since listing

..
Nuix has spent more than $40 million defending lawsuits stemming from its controversial listing in 2020, as investors punished the company for disappointing full-year results.

The company’s non-operational legal costs rose 24 per cent to $10.6 million in the 12 months to June 30, largely related to a class action – which is expected to begin next year – brought by investors who say they were misled about the company’s financials before it floated.
.
FY25 Key Messages
1. ACV up 8% for FY25
2. Strong growth in Nuix Neo ACV, up 132%
3. Solid growth in Cash EBITDA, up 24.5%
4. Underlying and overall cash flow positive
5. Delivery of FY25 product roadmap and technology organisational restructure

Outlook
Nuix highlights the following core focus areas for FY26:
1. Continue to deliver on business transformation strategy:
a. Customer: Continued focus on higher-value contracts
b. Product: Further develop Nuix Neo capabilities
2. ACV growth driven by Nuix Neo
3. Revenue growth to exceed operating cost growth
4. Underlying cash flow positive for the full year

 

[finicky]

Two broker upgrades to Buy

Nuix Raised to Buy at Moelis & Company; PT A$2.66
Nuix Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT A$2.50

Not Held