NST - Northern Star Resources

[ShareSuccess]

NORTHERN STAR COMPLETES A$300M ON-MARKET SHARE BUY-BACK


Buy-back completion aligns with disciplined capital allocation priorities and focus on shareholder returns

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its first on-market share buy-back program. The A$300 million program was executed at an average price of A$11.04 per share, with a total of 27,172,098 NST shares purchased.

The buy-back program aligns with Northern Star’s disciplined capital allocation priorities, which include returningcash to shareholders, investing in profitable organic growth and maintaining a strong balance sheet. The program complements the Company’s dividend policy, which targets to pay out between 20-30% of Cash Earnings1. The Board continues to assess all forms of capital management to generate superior returns for our shareholders.

The A$300 million on-market share buy-back program commenced on 15 September 2022.Commenting on the completion of the buy-back, Northern Star Managing Director Stuart Tonkin said:

“I am pleased that we have completed our $300 million share buy-back program. The average purchase price of$11.04 per share demonstrates our disciplined approach to value creation for all our shareholder

 

[finicky]

Gee, just checked out the NST chart and surprised at the degree of recovery since it was justifiably whacked on lower FY25 production guidance, higher AISC and some negative sentiment from the professionals. Finished on its intraday high with strong volume on Friday, leaving me optimistic that it might have reloaded to challenge the old all time high? Having thoughts for the first time ever though of more seriously reducing my holding due to comments from the pros - Greg Canavan saying the returns from here won't be great and Market Matters observing that NST has now missed cost guidance for four years straight! Northern Star my equal biggest stake with Codan (CDA).

DAILY

 

[ShareSuccess]

Gee, just checked out the NST chart and surprised at the degree of recovery since it was justifiably whacked on lower FY25 production guidance, higher AISC and some negative sentiment from the professionals. Finished on its intraday high with strong volume on Friday, leaving me optimistic that it might have reloaded to challenge the old all time high? Having thoughts for the first time ever though of more seriously reducing my holding due to comments from the pros - Greg Canavan saying the returns from here won't be great and Market Matters observing that NST has now missed cost guidance for four years straight! Northern Star my equal biggest stake with Codan (CDA).

DAILY
View attachment 200688

Yeah I'm in the same Boat Finicky, will give it another month before i consider selling my final Parcel!.....Very happy with my return considering i got in Low 9s & don't want to get too Greedy!!

 

[Sean K]

Gee, just checked out the NST chart and surprised at the degree of recovery since it was justifiably whacked on lower FY25 production guidance, higher AISC and some negative sentiment from the professionals. Finished on its intraday high with strong volume on Friday, leaving me optimistic that it might have reloaded to challenge the old all time high? Having thoughts for the first time ever though of more seriously reducing my holding due to comments from the pros - Greg Canavan saying the returns from here won't be great and Market Matters observing that NST has now missed cost guidance for four years straight! Northern Star my equal biggest stake with Codan (CDA).

DAILY
View attachment 200688

I sold this at $13.50 for a 40% gain thinking I was smart. You know, any profit is a good profit, blah, blah.

 

[divs4ever]

nah ! i will stick with what i have

i started buying in February 2013 @ 87 cents , sold some in January 2015 ( @ $2.06 ) and some more in May 2016 ( @ $4.02 ) recouping the original cash investment twice over

then bought extras in June 2021 ( @ $ 9.81 ) and more again in January 2022 ( @ $8.69 ) for an all-up average buying price of $6.23 .. and in April 2023 reduced the holding @ $12.32 ( recouping the cash injected in the two previous buys , plus a bit )

... and NST is currently my 15th largest holding

i have been wrong before , but this holding feels pretty comfy for me

 

[Sean K]

nah ! i will stick with what i have

i started buying in February 2013 @ 87 cents , sold some in January 2015 ( @ $2.06 ) and some more in May 2016 ( @ $4.02 ) recouping the original cash investment twice over

then bought extras in June 2021 ( @ $ 9.81 ) and more again in January 2022 ( @ $8.69 ) for an all-up average buying price of $6.23 .. and in April 2023 reduced the holding @ $12.32 ( recouping the cash injected in the two previous buys , plus a bit )

... and NST is currently my 15th largest holding

i have been wrong before , but this holding feels pretty comfy for me

Divs, you should be able to upgrade to the King Cobra Deluxe then.

 

[divs4ever]

Divs, you should be able to upgrade to the King Cobra Deluxe then.

profitable ( no capital loss ) positions , and other divs income holdings is the plan

i still think the Federal Government will try to weasel it's way out of paying pensions ( except for them and their senior government mates )

but will they do that in my lifetime ?

i was raised to live a ( relatively ) frugal life-style , i don't see any good reason change that , but would not be completely averse to renting out the 'granny flat ' ( actually would have been so the young ostrich chicks could be watched carefully , back in the day ) as long as the renter was a Federal Parliamentarian or Senator ) so they got a feel of life without plentiful luxuries

now one problem is .. how long is 'the rest of my life ' i have one statistical estimate but what is i beat those odds ?/ ( and they start slashing pensions/drowning us in taxes and charges )

i note a nearby property now sports an older but fairly large tent ( looks to be a 4-person tent , back in the days you did more than sleep in a tent ) , fairly brave ( or desperate ) considering Winter is here and heavy frosts will be a regular feature for the next 3 months

 

[finicky]

Gold stocks rocked me today - I await illumination from my subscription services.
Thought it must be anticipatory selling of the GDX index which is not just rebalancing but going through a big shift soon as mullockintyre alerted to. But that doesn't make any obvious sense as the weighting of NST is being increased. Ramelius, GMD and a few other Oz goldies are being thrown out of the index altogether, and while they've been whacked today too - not as much as NST.

Held
Tradeable

DAILY

 

[finicky]

I suppose another possible explanation is the fundies on some signal booking profits from their gold miners before the end of financial year?
Another possible explanation not considered by me that I just read from a poster elsewhere ..
"Running oil costs cost of miners have just risen by 7%" [i.e oil]

 

[finicky]

UBS downgrade. Copied from a poster elsewhere:

"Evolution Mining and Northern Star shares drop on UBS downgrades: Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining were two of the worst performing ASX 200 stocks after morning trade as UBS downgraded its ratings on the two gold miners.The numbers: Evolution shares were down 5.7% to $8.68 at midday AEST. Northern Star shares fell 5.1% to $21.38.UBS downgraded Evolution to 'sell' and cut its price target 15% to $6.70. It also downgraded Northern Star to 'neutral' and trimmed its price target 11% to $23.Meanwhile, Newmont shares rose 1% to $88.95 after UBS reiterated its 'buy' rating and hiked its price target 17% to $105.The context: UBS analysts noted that Evolution has outperformed the market over the year to date, with shares climbing 81%. However, UBS has lowered its production outlook and increased its capital expenditure estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027, leading to the downgrade.The analysts also downgraded Northern Star following a "disappointing" March quarter, despite a 39% share price rally over the last 12 months.UBS reaffirmed its position on Newmont, describing the miner as "relatively better positioned" after an extended period of production underperformance. The company's March quarter beat expectations, the analysts said, and is forecast for competitive free cash flow into 2026."

 

[finicky]

Nothing new offered by Market Matters by way of explanation for the gold stocks dump today.

Northern Star (NST) -8.21% and Evolution Mining (EVN) -8.04% were downgraded by UBS to ‘Neutral’ and ‘Sell’ respectively.
Gold fell $14/oz during the session, trading around $US3416/oz at our close.
That does not show the degree of pullback though, with bullion spiking early before getting sold into – fell ~$US40 from morning highs.

 

[finicky]

Northern Star down 6-7% @ $17.15 - generous really.
Reporting Q4 results and FY25 production today.
But I suspect the negative reaction is mainly due to the company's FY26 production and cost guidance, particularly the latter.
If you add up the production cost and all the capital cash costs at the high end of estimates in the graphic it amounts to A$5,195 per oz. Aint nothing left there for shareholders at the current gold price. Everything's in the far future for this company. Even FY27 will be only the completion of the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines expansion project, then it should take a couple of years to ramp up if I recall. But development of the Hemi mine from the De Grey acquisition will chew up capital during those years as well. Compare to the Ramelius (RMS) report today where things are humming and Quarterly underlying free cash flow was A$207.8M.

Held
Missed my chance to further reduce while waiting for the new financial year.

 

[ShareSuccess]

I'm Lucky!....Decided to sell my last parcel last week

 

[Sean K]

If you add up the production cost and all the capital cash costs at the high end of estimates in the graphic it amounts to A$5,195 per oz.

I thought the growth capital was all factored in? Didn't everyone know it was going to cost a motza?

 

[finicky]

Didn't everyone know it was going to cost a motza?

Yeah, pretty much I think, but how many knew it'd be cash negative in the year ahead? - I didn't. Also I forgot I'd be facing an FY26 guidance around this time.
The rationale is as an investment in assets that are being developed for years in the future. Not the cash they can spin off over the next few years. Hope the funds think the same. I remember Newcrest was always hard to justify on current earnings but the funds still chose it for gold?

 

[Antirnator]

I wonder how low it will go... maybe $14

 

[finicky]

Market Index:

Northern Star has erased most of its year-to-date gain. Where does it go from here?​

By Kerry Sun
Wed 09 Jul 25, 4:11pm (AEST)

Key Points​

• Northern Star's share price has collapsed from a 46% year-to-date gain to just 6% after disappointing FY26 guidance showed production falling short of the company's 2.0Moz target and costs rising 13-15% above analyst expectations.
• The company abandoned its long-held 2 million ounce sales target, with FY26 production now guided at 1.7-1.85Moz due to planned major shutdowns across all three production centres.
• Capital expenditure guidance has increased substantially over the past twelve months, with FY26 growth capex now projected at $1.985-2.12 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by 8-12.8%.

In less than a month, Northern Star (ASX: NST) has flipped its year-to-date gain from 46% to just 6% after its recent FY26 guidance flagged weaker-than-expected sales alongside substantially higher operating costs.
An operational update on Monday, 7 July, noted FY25 gold sales and all-in sustaining costs to be within the company's guidance of 1,630-1660koz and A$2,100-2,200/oz respectively. However, the company's FY26 guidance was disappointing across multiple fronts, including:

• Production of 1.7-1.85Moz, which was in-line with Citi expectations but short of the company's prior 2.0Moz outlook
• AISC of A$2,300-2,700 was 13% higher than Citi forecasts at the midpoint and 15% above consensus expectations
• Growth capex of $1.985-2.12 billion topped Citi and consensus expectations by 8% and 12.8% respectively

Northern Star attributed the softer FY26 start to "planned major shutdowns across all three production centres." The company cited several factors driving higher costs, including broader sector inflationary pressure (~5%), increased sustaining capital requirements from expanded development work, and processing capital investments across all facilities.

Analyst Takeaways​

Despite the disappointing guidance, analyst sentiment remains mixed but generally supportive of the company's long-term prospects:

• RBC Capital retained Sector Perform, lowered target from $22.00 to $19.00. Says FY26 guidance miss is likely not priced in, with cost pressures posing risk to FY27 production, though long-term growth remains intact.
• Macquarie retained Outperform, target unchanged at $27.00. Notes FY26 capex and costs exceeded expectations, with Q1 weakness flagged and KCGM execution key to restoring investor confidence.
• CLSA retained High-Conviction Outperform, lowered target from $25.20 to $24.30. Acknowledges weak short-term result but sees strong long-term growth, with production outlook underappreciated and inflation trends continuing.
• Citi retained Buy, lowered target from $22.00 to $21.00. Says the market will need time to digest the disappointing guidance and sees risks to further negative surprises.

A closer look at Citi's take​

Citi expects further volatility as Northern Star attempts to reset cost and capex expectations. The FY26 guidance has resulted in FY26-27 EBITDA downgrades of 7-10%, with analysts now expecting flat year-on-year EBITDA growth in FY26 and 9.2% growth in FY27.
Notably, Citi expects "market digestion of FY26 guidance to continue into early August and sees risks to the downside for KCGM with site visit disclosures."

Where does this leave Northern Star?​

Northern Star remains Australia's second-largest gold miner by production, operating three key mining centres: Kalgoorlie and Yandal in Western Australia, and the Pogo underground mine in the US. The merger with Saracen added two additional WA mines and consolidated ownership of the Super Pit (KCGM), while the recent May completion of the De Grey merger brought the ~530koz per annum Hemi project into the portfolio.
The company's assets, production capabilities, and long-term aspirations are undeniable. The challenge lies in execution.
Northern Star's current situation mirrors a similar challenge faced by Newmont (ASX: NEM) in October 2024. Newmont shares tumbled 19% over two days (October 24-25, 2024) after delivering third-quarter results that missed analyst expectations by 17%, despite producing 2.1 million ounces of gold and generating US$760 million in free cash flow. The culprit was soaring costs, up more than 30% year-to-date and well above analyst expectations.
While gold prices traded sideways between October 2024 and January 2025 before finding momentum in February, it took Newmont shares approximately seven months to return to late October levels, even as gold prices pushed to record highs.

Newmont price chart (Source: TradingView)​

The Path Forward​

Northern Star must now focus on restoring market confidence at a time when capital expenditure forecasts have increased substantially in the last twelve months.
Rising gold prices could provide some offset to recent weakness, though Citi analysts recently lowered their near-term gold price target to US$3,300/oz from US$3,500/oz, suggesting limited upside from current levels.
"We may have already seen the highs at US$3,500/oz in late April as gold market deficit is peaking soon if not already," Citi analysts noted in their research.
Several policy developments could further dampen gold demand, including the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," trade agreements, and Fed rate cuts beginning in September.
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Written By
Kerry Sun

​

 

[ShareSuccess]

It's Not every Day that we Get the Timing right in when to sell, but it appears at this stage that i have got it right in regards to what i still consider a Very Good company going Forward into the future!

I will Now sit back & wait Patiently to get back in when i feel the time is right!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

We do tend to discount costs when analysing gold mining stocks.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've been looking at gold mining stocks this morning. The beaten down NST ia approaching a significant support resistance line at $15. A 3 year weekly chart.

gg