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tinhat

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With those fundamentals in play and limited new stock from mines expected to come into play in the near term, I think the Ni price is unlikely to drop off significantly.

In fact if there is a period of consolidation, there is likely to be some M&A (Merge & Acquisition) activity in the sector such as the bid for Panoramic Resources Ltd (PAN) by the bigger stock Independence Group NL (IGO) a few days ago.

upload_2019-11-5_15-57-15.png
 
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Yes Panoramic seem to have found themselves in a resource rich, cash poor situation. IMO
From what I've read, they seem to be driving the shaft across to another ore body, but it all costs money.
 
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Yes Panoramic seem to have found themselves in a resource rich, cash poor situation. IMO
From what I've read, they seem to be driving the shaft across to another ore body, but it all costs money.

Well that's interesting because PAN is not accepting the IGO bid at the moment:

upload_2019-11-5_22-13-26.png

Perhaps they think its too low or they can fund the projects themselves. But what's interesting is that there is demand for new ore bodies being discovered by the Ni juniors and mid-caps.

Another discovery quietly happening in the background is the Cassini Ni ore body by fellow miner Mincor Resources NL (MCR). Still at drilling stage, but once fully estimated and measured based on the drilling results, Cassini is expected to add significant amount of Ni to MCR's current resources.
 

tinhat

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Well that's interesting because PAN is not accepting the IGO bid at the moment:

View attachment 98440

Perhaps they think its too low or they can fund the projects themselves. But what's interesting is that there is demand for new ore bodies being discovered by the Ni juniors and mid-caps.

Another discovery quietly happening in the background is the Cassini Ni ore body by fellow miner Mincor Resources NL (MCR). Still at drilling stage, but once fully estimated and measured based on the drilling results, Cassini is expected to add significant amount of Ni to MCR's current resources.

Whereas the PAN board have not yet made a firm recommendation to their shareholders, I reckon there will be a lot of retail investors who will be keen on the offer. I hold IGO. I held PAN briefly recently but jumped ship as I am not confident the management can deliver.
 
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Well that's interesting because PAN is not accepting the IGO bid at the moment:

View attachment 98440

Perhaps they think its too low or they can fund the projects themselves. But what's interesting is that there is demand for new ore bodies being discovered by the Ni juniors and mid-caps.

Another discovery quietly happening in the background is the Cassini Ni ore body by fellow miner Mincor Resources NL (MCR). Still at drilling stage, but once fully estimated and measured based on the drilling results, Cassini is expected to add significant amount of Ni to MCR's current resources.
I think the Panoramic takeover could be opportunistic, I don't know what the offer is, but they have all the infrastructure, crushing, milling, concentrator etc. They have also already exported a shipment out of Wyndham, so one would expect a decent offer.
With regard MCR, even they may come under the ruler by WSA, IGO or S32, as they already have the offtake contract in place.
So interesting times for nickel at the moment.
I don't hold Pan, but do hold MCR.
 

tinhat

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I'm currently a nickel and copper bull. This is based on the enormous level of capital investment currently going into high nickel chemistry lithium iron battery production and EV production. I have, however, mentioned on these fora that in the longer run the future of battery chemistry technology is uncertain and that the high price of nickel gives incentive to finding substitute battery chemistry.

This article outlines the potential for lithium-sulphure battery chemistry:

https://theconversation.com/batteri...e-cheaper-greener-and-hold-more-energy-129135
 
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@tinhat, by the time these hit the market,if ever, most of the nickel mine producing now will be depleted
Your nickel copper assumption is still fully valid IMHO
 

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‘Rising tide’ to float all battery-metal boats
David Perri - The Northern Miner | January 10, 2020 | 10:21 am Battery Metals Canada

https://www.mining.com/rising-tide-to-float-all-battery-metal-boats/

Some highlights:

"Miller estimates total lithium-ion cell production will come in below 200 gigawatt hours (GWh) for 2019. As of January 2019, total production capacity in the pipeline over the coming decade (including projects producing, under construction and planned) totalled 1,550 GWh. By 2028, Miller estimates there will be 2,030 GWh in the production pipeline."

"...there is a failure to recognize gaps downstream of that mine output that will take … the lithium or nickel mine outputs [and] turn them into chemicals, cathodes, anodes, etc.

“Until these downstream pieces of the puzzle are addressed and filled in … any efforts that are directed to bringing about new mines or new sources of supply will simply be misguided, and ultimately may just end up resulting in more output that gets sent to China or elsewhere to be processed."

"… car manufacturers or large battery manufacturers have not realized that it takes at least 10 years to develop, from the ground up, a new supply chain of raw material,” Bourassa says. “End users should be the ones that are investing.”

"Castilloux points out that the perception that battery technology is rapidly changing also puts off investors. “There are no major surprises coming. We don’t have new-fandangled technologies coming in the next decade or two,” he says. “It’s going to be nickel, lithium, cobalt, graphite and manganese. Some may do better than others, but ultimately, a rising tide is going to float all of those boats."


 
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The news that Vale has put Voiseys Bay (one of the worlds largest nickel mines) on care and maintenance for a month as a precaution against CV19 fell on deaf ears in the nickel world today

if Indonesia fails to manage CV19 effectively the impact to large scale HPAL projects could be significant

at A$19,400/t Nickel, domestic Australian nickel producers have been well insulated by the AUD’s capitulation lately companies like IGO and WSA should still be making good cashflow despite 40% pullbacks in share prices since CV19 emerged as a global threat
 
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