Perhaps LYC read the article after all. SP increase of 11% today on decent volume. No real reason why today for an 11% increase though that i can see. Any one have any suggestions?
Hi VincentThe capital rising is all done and those who are in it for a quick profit have mostly sold out and gone (hopefully). LYC had a road show in Hong Kong and it was a good presentation
More indications are showing that the demand for rare earth (REE) is exceeding supply. LYC is the richest (not largest) deposit of REE and is well underway to begin production in 12 to 18 months. It will be one of the few producers outside of China and buyers are already showing strong support.
Also it is forecasted that the price of REE will be going up and the USD may be over the worst in 12 to 18 months, it is all positive and at today's close of 60 cents it is cheap if things go according to plan. I repeat cheap if all go according to plan, DYOR and what is acceptable risk to me may not be your pound/kilo of REE.
Hi miner
re your couriosity of hi vincent comment on lyc to take 12-18m before finished product out of malaysia can be delivered i am more than courious, i am concerned,when i read lyc report that this could be the case and knowing they advised the market when they had aquired the necessary $ to restart they could re start swiftly,lyc also indicated recently( after they recieved $450m )they were reconsidering certain functions within the malaysian set up,whats this mean.
question, are they having thoughts about relocating to another site for the finishing plant namely AUSTRALIA after all they have pulled out before from a firm commitment...china, my concern is part of our attitude to the lyc sp is based on the fact we believe lyc will be 1st cab off the rank to supply the world market outside of china but if they start all over again to attempt to build another finishing plant this can give some of lyc compeditors a better chance to be 1st cab.nick curtis said 5-10 years from discovery to finish product, that was the past if the us gov sees the urgency to produce the product quicker it certainly can be done,much quicker ,did you read jack liftons report oct 15th 09''rare earth crisis 2009''part 1 page 5 quote:aust gov is now questioning the business model of lyc'' un quote asking why not have complete production in aussie!!!I hold lyc stock and have been buying& selling it since 2005.
Hi Vincent
I am just curious how you drew the point that the production is 12 to 18 months away. Mt Weld was very much happening when they closed it. They got the money and if writing on the wall is right, with market drive (you were right to point the demand supply gap) LYC by any means, should be back to production much earlier than 12 months. This is how I see and surely LYC directors have more brains than me.
I got the timetable for production from LYC's presenation when they announced the China deal. I listen to it against and right at the end the target date for production was end of 2010.
Please look at their latest Hong Kong presentation and judge for yourself. It is a huge project and they have only done the site work, piling & foundations. They have also ordered all the machines that require a long lead time. Production in 12 to 18 minths is a very agressive target.
For any new entrants from final approval to production requires between 4 to 5 years (Mineweb). Thus LYC has a headstart amongst new REE producers outside of China.
I think you might have mistaken the mounds of ore they have dug up in Mt Weld. LYC still have to finish building and fitout the concentrate plant in Mt Weld and then ship it to the vastly unfinished plant in Malaysia for final processing before they have a marketable product.
The global recovery has only just started and I think the price of REE will start to peak in 12 to 18 months and therefore I think the LYC timing is almost perfect.
Patersons Securities does. They cover the stock and the report is available on the Lynas website...........................
Nice update from LYC with all the ducks coming onto line.
Capital raised; construction progress at Mt Weld and in Malaysia; sales contracts extended.
But production is still at least 12 months away and a lot can happen in that time. Based on what we know at this stage and conservative product prices, does anyone have a line on just how profitable this company will be once Stage 1 is up and running?
That is a $64 question. It depends on the market price of REE. LYC's pre-sale contracts does not lock in a price. Therefore if REE prices go up LYC will get the benefits. How profitable will depend on the selling price at the time and how cost efficient LYC is.
All current indications are the demand for REE exceeds supply and expectations are for prices to go up and LYC is expecting to sell whatever they can produce.
So everything is looking good but nothing is 100% until the cash is in the bank.
Western mines re-open for business
China actually has only 53 percent of world supplies within its borders. In the West, overproduction and low prices in the 1990s caused most mines to close. The recent increase in demand has overturned that situation. A kilo of neodymium goes for 22 dollars now, five times as much as in 2002. Dysprosium's value is ten times what it was in 2002.
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