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Lithium

Ann

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Lithium Market Cheers as Top Supplier Sees Demand Driving Higher

The world’s largest producer of lithium calmed investor fears of oversupply and slower Chinese demand for the mineral used to power electric vehicles, sending shares surging across the industry.

Albemarle Corp.’s fourth-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates, and it expects global lithium demand to grow 21 percent annually, with the market remaining tight for years as manufacturing of electric cars and large-scale batteries soars. The company’s stock rose the most in almost three years on Thursday.

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Ann

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https://www.metalbulletin.com/lithium-prices-update
......hydroxide is the go to product, but carbonate pricing more widely used.

So basically anything that looks like a hockey stick chart is bullsh!t? I can work with that! :)

Now I understand why my favourite economic data site quotes Lithium prices by using an ETF. This tracks the performance of the lithium industry. The biggest lithium producers are: Australia, Chile, Argentina, China and Zimbabwe.

As the price of companies tend to reflect the price of the underlying commodity it is as good a gauge as we can probably get for the Price of Lithium.
This is the most recent chart, it is showing a good rise happening off a recent bottom in Lithium stocks. Longer term it is just a pause in the price which has been rising for some time. It appears to be nearly double the price it was in 2016. Not surprising with the leaps which have been made with EVs.

I read a couple of weeks back that other than Tesla who want to harvest the Lithium from old batteries other EV makers are looking to re-purpose the batteries for home use. Make money twice over, good business! This will mean they are going to keep the supply demand high, as I see it.

lithium 23.2.19.png
 

Ann

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German Home Battery Demand Pushes Storage Above 5 Billion Euros

Homeowners tapping cheaper batteries for rooftop solar installations helped Germany’s power storage market break through the 5 billion euro ($5.6 billion) mark for the first time last year.

The market, which includes utility-scale batteries and home units, is growing by 10 percent a year, driven by a sharp decline in technology prices, Germany’s BVES storage federation said Tuesday. Falling module and battery prices are encouraging consumers to cut their power bill by generating their own electricity. More...
 
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German Home Battery Demand Pushes Storage Above 5 Billion Euros

Homeowners tapping cheaper batteries for rooftop solar installations helped Germany’s power storage market break through the 5 billion euro ($5.6 billion) mark for the first time last year.

The market, which includes utility-scale batteries and home units, is growing by 10 percent a year, driven by a sharp decline in technology prices, Germany’s BVES storage federation said Tuesday. Falling module and battery prices are encouraging consumers to cut their power bill by generating their own electricity. More...
@Ann You might have seen the thread started by @greggles picking up bottom and he took EUR there. I also noticed there is no individual thread on EUR but your stand alone thread on Lithium sums up all of them.
On EUR I noticed, the major investor is Anthony (Tony) sage who made few bucks for some on Cape Lambert. He has bought fair bit of skin on EUR.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190124/pdf/4421sk82flft56.pdf
But Tony also started FEL which is probably starving for cash and depleting blood.
Once I saw his name as a director with EUR, thinking a lot. How come he spends millions in one and let the other company starving for cash. Where is his consistency?
Nonetheless, today EUR has gone up magnificently.
Sorry for my verbosity.
 
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Got to the 120 level and dropped back.

Chart looks like it is in a "regular" reversal stage for my money …

ie. Spike low/strong move up against the downtrend (complete) …. followed by retracement/ranging before the second leg higher (current) ….

Needs to find a higher low (yet to be established), then look for a second leg higher (projection:))

If it manages to drop below the recent lows, especially if it meanders there with no apparent trading direction:(, the above scenario should be reset/re-assessed and disregarded, perhaps with the appropriate amount of short term panic, lol:D

ps (discl) I hold some Lithium stock "LPD" in anticipation of the "L" resurgence over the next few months but I like to trade "tea-leaves" so any of my musings should be taken with a grain of Sodium Chloride:p
 

Ann

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Chart looks like it is in a "regular" reversal stage for my money …

ie. Spike low/strong move up against the downtrend (complete) …. followed by retracement/ranging before the second leg higher (current) ….

Needs to find a higher low (yet to be established), then look for a second leg higher (projection:))

If it manages to drop below the recent lows, especially if it meanders there with no apparent trading direction:(, the above scenario should be reset/re-assessed and disregarded, perhaps with the appropriate amount of short term panic, lol:D

ps (discl) I hold some Lithium stock "LPD" in anticipation of the "L" resurgence over the next few months but I like to trade "tea-leaves" so any of my musings should be taken with a grain of Sodium Chloride:p

I was holding PLL for a few weeks then it went 10% up from purchase, I looked at Lithium price and flicked it. It was just hanging there doing nothing mostly. As Peter says, you can always buy it back.

Looking at my own chart for Lithium (EFT) on a 6 month short term basis it has two touches on rising support and two touches on falling resistance it is too hard to call. It has just bounced off the rising support. If it falls back from the falling overhead I think it may struggle to stay above the rising support and may fall to test a double bottom. If it does that I reckon it might be quite bullish. In fact, I think I am more bullish than bearish. But heck, with this one I could be very wrong, I am just not getting any 'feeling' from it.

lithium 1.4.19.png
 
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I think I am more bullish than bearish. But heck, with this one I could be very wrong, I am just not getting any 'feeling' from it.

I'm seeing it similar …. forming a base to rise from will take a while, but the current pattern looks "correct" if there is such a thing:)
 
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While I agree that the demand for lithium is increasing, I don't see how the price can rise too much with the numbers of lithium producers coming on line. There was a big advantage for the first movers, ASX stocks GXY, ORE, PLS, KDR but this was back in 2015 - 2017.

The prices of all the major Li producers have been falling for the past year. I can't see that there'll be another boom for lithium.
 

Ann

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It touched the upper falling resistance line and looks to be headed down again. Big question, will it find support again on the rising line? I find charting totally fascinating. :)

lithium 13.4.19.png
 

Ann

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This may add a dampener to the price of Lithium.

Lithium Giant Predicts Higher Sales as Expansion Plans Pay Off

Two months after disappointing the market with its annual results, the world’s second-largest lithium miner said an expansion is faring better than expected and sales probably will beat its forecasts for this year.

Santiago-based Soc. Quimica y Minera de Chile SA will exceed its sales target of just under 50,000 tons of lithium as output ramps up at its operations in the Atacama salt flat, according to the company’s commercial vice president of lithium and iodine Felipe Smith.


"We are ready to offer more product to the market," Smith said in an interview in Santiago on Thursday. "We have a better than expected position in production and inventories after we reached more stable production following the expansion."

SQM, whose operation sits on top of the world’s largest lithium reserve, almost doubled its production capacity in 2018 to 70,000 tons per year to respond to booming demand for the mineral essential to power the rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles. More...
 

Ann

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Time to look at the Lithium chart again, since we last looked, the price fell straight through the symmetrical triangle, tried to fight back and failed. Fell through the $26.25 support, got back for a couple of sessions and then failed that. It didn't get down to the $24 level before it curved back up again. Now the big question, will it be able to push back and stay above the resistance of $26.25? Gosh it is exciting! :D

lithium 7.6.19.png
 

Ann

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I wonder if this article is suggesting not to expect the Lithium price to be doing too much for a while?

Lithium Giant Sees Stable Prices Following a ‘Crazy Peak’

Lithium prices aren’t going go back to the historic highs of recent years but won’t plummet to pre-boom levels either, according to the world’s third-largest producer of the mineral key to electric-vehicle batteries.

Prices have now stabilized after miners globally boosted production capacity to match soaring demand from automakers, Tianqi Lithium Corp. Chief Executive Officer Vivian Wu said on Monday. Orders for the soft, white mineral produced mainly in Chile and Australia remain solid, she said. More...
 

Ann

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Not a great week for Lithium it got rebuffed by the $26.25 resistance line...

lithium 14.6.19.png
 
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If you look at the regulation changes to car manufacturing in the EU, China, you will find that everyone is moving towards electric cars or at least will be long term. Lithiums stocks have taken a beating but I think it is the right play long term.
 
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If you look at the regulation changes to car manufacturing in the EU, China, you will find that everyone is moving towards electric cars or at least will be long term. Lithiums stocks have taken a beating but I think it is the right play long term.
From what I have read there has been a bit of an oversupply, in both Lithium and Cobalt, it appears miners have got ahead of the demand curve. Just my understanding.
DYOR,
 

Jack Aubrey

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Many commentators are calling an end to the 2 year Lithium DT based on a bit of an uptick in LIT EFT and stock prices since September. I can't quite see it myself. News is certainly encouraging for battery makers but there has been an almost simultaneous removal of subsidies by both China and the EU which may delay a genuine rebound.

Here's my chart of the LIT EFT compared to US lithium major Albermale (ALB). My LIT channel may be wrong and some proper chartists are showing the latest uptick as a genuine breakout and reversal of the DT.

LIT_ALB_NOV19.jpg
Here's the latest pricing data I could find - which doesn't exactly encourage bullish sentiment IMO.
EH-1g7AWwAQFJFe.jpeg

I don't hold any Lithium-related stocks ATM, but have several on my watchlist.
 
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