LET'S NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

[Garpal Gumnut]

Please excuse the capitals but one has to tackle ones intellectual opponents who shout, with shouting.

With great respect to
Ducatti,
WayneL
tech/a
Gorilla
realist
Kennas
Noiruia
magdoran and
moneytree
and too many others to mention

I find it distressing that nobody has posted their profits on this correction. If I were a daytrader I would have carefully plotted my gains and losses over 28/2 and 1/3.

Why could such a significantly talented team of technical analylists fail to anticipate, or utilise this correction.

Why have the very talented anylists in this forum spent more time discussing why "Rome is burning" rather than how as traders they can profit from this.

A few lame bleats emenate from sheepish "traders" saying they may or may not have open call or put positions.

Lets get real.

This is not an intellectual tread for pointy heads to prove their superiority over others.

Trading is about making money.

I don't see or hear any member of ASF who has profitted from this correction.

Lets talk about it.

I'm long term trader but value your guys input, which has been sadly lacking recently,.

Garpal

 

[wayneL]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Garpal,

There is a rule here... no posting trades after the fact. I'm sure a few goals have been kicked, but without ways to substantiate:

1/ it is open to challenge
2/ could be complete fabrications

The techniques have been discussed often enough before.

But a good idea to discuss tactics again if people so desire.

Cheers

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Garpal,

There is a rule here... no posting trades after the fact. I'm sure a few goals have been kicked, but without ways to substantiate:

1/ it is open to challenge
2/ could be complete fabrications

The techniques have been discussed often enough before.

But a good idea to discuss tactics again if people so desire.

Cheers

re Goals kicked ... agree... no way to substantiate

As opposed to some US sites, still I am asking should we have more balls and ovaries to compete with the global market.

Should we go short in situations like this, rather than just commenting on the market falling.

I am a long term trader but would love to be a short term one, but situations like this make me wonder whether we are capable in Australia of trading and discussioning rationelly put trades.

Garpal

 

[ducati916]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Garpal,

There is a rule here... no posting trades after the fact. I'm sure a few goals have been kicked, but without ways to substantiate:

1/ it is open to challenge
2/ could be complete fabrications

The techniques have been discussed often enough before.

But a good idea to discuss tactics again if people so desire.

Cheers

Strategies should be diversified.
*Investment strategy
*Trading strategy

From a posting perspective, it is easier to post an investment strategy as it doesn't change that much, there are several already on the board.

Trading, or short term stuff is generally more time intensive, and contentious.
Which is why you probably do not see much of it.

I dislike *directional* trading strategy. I far prefer *market neutral* strategies that profit irrespective of market direction, and pay me irrespective of market direction.

You are of course trading volatility in the Options world or spreads in the arbitrage world.

jog on
d998

 

[tech/a]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Cant be bothered.

 

[ducati916]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Cant be bothered.

Fair enough I guess.
Any particular reason why you can't be bothered?

jog on
d998

 

[tech/a]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Posting takes up far to much time as it is for me.
There is enough of my stuff on here and Reefcap.
If it interests me I'll read/comment and or post.

Gave up posting analysis due to the peanut factor (Like the Shouting comment made above)---its a headline!!, combined with the time factor last year.

Genarally cant be bothered.
Really am sick of the idiot factor that think trading is gambling,and everyone has to prove how big their Kahuna's are.

And unfortunately its a constant stream.
I'll leave all this to You Ducster,Moggie and others who have more time and inclination.

 

[barney]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Strategies should be diversified.
*Investment strategy
*Trading strategy

From a posting perspective, it is easier to post an investment strategy as it doesn't change that much, there are several already on the board.

Trading, or short term stuff is generally more time intensive, and contentious.
Which is why you probably do not see much of it.

I dislike *directional* trading strategy. I far prefer *market neutral* strategies that profit irrespective of market direction, and pay me irrespective of market direction.

You are of course trading volatility in the Options world or spreads in the arbitrage world.

jog on
d998

Howdy Duc, At the risk of getting in over my head, would you mind outlining the basics of market neutral strategy/strategies. I have been trying to come up with some simple ideas of my own along these lines in an attempt to "take the heat" out of trading due to working with limited capital, but still searching. I'm sure other newer punters like myself would appreciate any constructive advice on that ........... Thanks.

 

[money tree]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

I kept my mouth shut about calling a short on XJO @ 6020 because it wasnt on this forum that I said it. However, there are people who frequent both places who could be a witness. But really its those who DID post it here who deserve credit, since others may have made money (or saved their bacon) from the info.

I suggested that the best way to profit from the gloom ahead was to short the Aussie 200 index via CMC. This pays you over 4% interest (leveraged 50x = 200%) while short. Since I doubt XJO will get over 6020 for the next 5 years, this could be a great little earner. At some point I see XJO going under 4500, so you could end up with heaps of interest earned and huge capital gain. This strategy is one I invented and is part of my course.

I know there are some people who are short Aussie 200 and looking for an exit. Perhaps this may help them a bit.

 

[Atomic5]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Did Buffet just say anything interesting?

 

[Sean K]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Please excuse the capitals but one has to tackle ones intellectual opponents who shout, with shouting..............
Garpal

Hi Garpal. I think you raise a good point in that we all need to learn how to make money in a falling market. The market will have another soft period shortly (if it hasn't started already), and there will be negative returns one year soon, if not a couple. I have stated many times in various threads that I thought the market was getting toppy and for people to have exit plans and learn how to make money selling short (see XAO analysis thread, and the Irrational Exhuberance thread for eg).

I have been selling down my portfolio for the past 3 months, and have stated so on the forum during that period, and in my blog. I've even been accused of downramping some stocks because I have been saying they looked overpriced, or that the fundamentals weren't there to support such market caps (see most uranium stock threads). Selling down was simply a risk management process to be set to reinvest after the market came back to fair value or was even undervalued. Although that's probably some way off.

I am just learning other trading instruments and only recently started using CFDs with ETrade and IG Markets, and have used them to sell short the index and individual stocks - so far with little success. Until I am confident in using them with conviction I'm probably not going to be sprouting about their use on the forum. When I think I have some really good ideas I will post them up.

For now, I'm sitting tight on what I have left (mostly gold and some uranium), waiting for the dust to settle, and the noise to quieten down a bit.

There's others out there who have been investing longer than me who probably have some well tried methods of confidently investing in a falling and volitile market......

 

[CanOz]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Being a realtively inexperienced trader, i have not bought back into the market (other than a quick scalp on my day off). I will stay in CASH until a trend has re developed. In the meantime i think it would be a good time to start paper trading short positions to practice.

If your not good at trading in a sideways or bear market then why on earth would you try it? You can still earn interest in the bank.




Cheers,

 

[ducati916]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Howdy Duc, At the risk of getting in over my head, would you mind outlining the basics of market neutral strategy/strategies. I have been trying to come up with some simple ideas of my own along these lines in an attempt to "take the heat" out of trading due to working with limited capital, but still searching. I'm sure other newer punters like myself would appreciate any constructive advice on that ........... Thanks.

barney

Assuming an average capital base of say US $25K it is possible to trade a market neutral or fully hedged position

Utilizing Options trade a *delta-neutral* position.
Long the Options contracts
Short the common stock
Adjust position on an intra-day daily basis.

Risks;
*Overpaying for Implied Volatility
*Realized volatility below paid for Implied volatility

Now what you have seen or heard recently [if you've been listening] is the extremely low levels of volatility as measured by the VIX.

This tends to happen in bull markets, not always, and not quite to these low levels. The time was ripe to buy volatility.

How to overcome the risks;
*Understand the pricing models
*Extend expiry time
*Understand the theory of volatility cones.

Once you position is set, you make money if price rises, or falls, the greater the fluctuations, the greater your profit. No stoplosses required, in the market 24/7............perfect for volatile bear markets.

jog on
d998

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Should we go short in situations like this, rather than just commenting on the market falling.

I am a long term trader but would love to be a short term one, but situations like this make me wonder whether we are capable in Australia of trading and discussioning rationelly put trades.

Garpal

Garpal,
I think you are missing some of the pieces here, as you imply that none of us are capable of trading any other way but long, when you should probably question yourself as to why you have not looked into taking advantage of moves in either direction.

Why ask the question on going short; it should be part of your everyday trading instruments. This is where the men are sorted from the boys, ie after a great bull run. See who makes real money in a falling market.

I think I can say, on behalf of the people you mentioned in the first post, that the word panic never even entered their minds. I didn't panic as I do trade either way and made more money on the day than I had in the last month. It's irrelevant what the actual dollar amounts are, as long as you can make money either way.

As far as scaring newcomers, then they should be scared; it's not going to be a one way 'bet' anymore.

 

[Ants]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

How to overcome the risks;
*Understand the pricing models
*Extend expiry time
*Understand the theory of volatility cones.

Could you please expand on this for us beginners please,
ducati
thanks

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Posting takes up far to much time as it is for me.
There is enough of my stuff on here and Reefcap.
If it interests me I'll read/comment and or post.

Gave up posting analysis due to the peanut factor (Like the Shouting comment made above)---its a headline!!, combined with the time factor last year.

Genarally cant be bothered.
Really am sick of the idiot factor that think trading is gambling,and everyone has to prove how big their Kahuna's are.

And unfortunately its a constant stream.
I'll leave all this to You Ducster,Moggie and others who have more time and inclination.

Very well said T/A

and it answers why i never see you write more then 10 words per post on most of your posts!

 

[Magdoran]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Posting takes up far to much time as it is for me.
There is enough of my stuff on here and Reefcap.
If it interests me I'll read/comment and or post.

Gave up posting analysis due to the peanut factor (Like the Shouting comment made above)---its a headline!!, combined with the time factor last year.

Genarally cant be bothered.
Really am sick of the idiot factor that think trading is gambling,and everyone has to prove how big their Kahuna's are.

And unfortunately its a constant stream.
I'll leave all this to You Ducster,Moggie and others who have more time and inclination.

I fully agree with you on this one Daffy,


The peanut factor does seem to grow substantially in these kinds of situations.

Some of us have been planning for this very situation for a long time. Some of us even called it well in advance (even the day and the index level). Then along come those that just don’t take the time to understand markets, and are surprised when a pull back/correction comes along and it catches them unprepared.

Please excuse the capitals but one has to tackle ones intellectual opponents who shout, with shouting.

With great respect to
Ducatti,
WayneL
tech/a
Gorilla
realist
Kennas
Noiruia
magdoran and
moneytree
and too many others to mention

I find it distressing that nobody has posted their profits on this correction. If I were a daytrader I would have carefully plotted my gains and losses over 28/2 and 1/3.

Why could such a significantly talented team of technical analylists fail to anticipate, or utilise this correction.

Why have the very talented anylists in this forum spent more time discussing why "Rome is burning" rather than how as traders they can profit from this.

A few lame bleats emenate from sheepish "traders" saying they may or may not have open call or put positions.

Lets get real.

This is not an intellectual tread for pointy heads to prove their superiority over others.

Trading is about making money.

I don't see or hear any member of ASF who has profitted from this correction.

Lets talk about it.

I'm long term trader but value your guys input, which has been sadly lacking recently,.

Garpal

Naivety is quite normal. The classic assumption that no one was aware or prepared for this pull back amuses me. I don’t know how many times I and other key people posted warnings of this situation arising. I even posted a month out with the date of the high, and a week out with the index level, what more do you want?

Then the classic assumption that none of us took action without even reading our posts. Also the assumption that no one has planned a campaign approach to this situation astounds me too. Wavepicker and I have been planning for this for over 2 months with our fingers on the trigger…

Also, how has this “mystical” group of so called experts been “sadly lacking” (how anyone can give credence to the resident clown “realist” and even think of rating him as some kind of expert speaks volumes, doesn’t it? – and of course the sagacious realist knew this was coming because he is omniscient and omnipotent, isn’t he)? All the key posters I know have posted great material leading up to the event if anyone cared to read it. It just required reading the posts.

Also, why would any of us want to beat our chest making comments like we cleaned up quadrupling our account in a day and comments to this effect? How does that help? Please tell me that? Why on earth should we talk about it? The ongoing commentary is appropriate in my view, certainly not boasting about how much was made. Anyway, it’s easy come easy go, and the next call could be totally wrong, couldn’t it?

Using the same logic, why haven’t all the losers posted how much they have lost? There Gumnut, how much did you lose? An equally fascicle question that should be relegated to the garbage bin of ASF.

So, Garpal, if you want to learn about the short side there are hundreds of post on the subject, certainly a lot in the derivative area. Considerable time was spent on these if you care to do some research. Consider how insulting your comments may come over firstly when you ignore and dismiss all the work we’ve done, and secondly because now post the event you expect us to drop everything to hold your hand and spoon feed you.

With all due respect, please take the time to use the search function and research this site. It’s all there if you take the time to look for it. If in doubt, go right through the derivative area for a start. Also, pick your favourite expert, and read through their posts – that might be a good start for now, how does that sound?


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. The market will do what it wants to do.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Garpal,
I think you are missing some of the pieces here, as you imply that none of us are capable of trading any other way but long, when you should probably question yourself as to why you have not looked into taking advantage of moves in either direction.

Why ask the question on going short; it should be part of your everyday trading instruments. This is where the men are sorted from the boys, ie after a great bull run. See who makes real money in a falling market.

I think I can say, on behalf of the people you mentioned in the first post, that the word panic never even entered their minds. I didn't panic as I do trade either way and made more money on the day than I had in the last month. It's irrelevant what the actual dollar amounts are, as long as you can make money either way.

As far as scaring newcomers, then they should be scared; it's not going to be a one way 'bet' anymore.

Great post Doc,


Well said! Good point – this situation certainly sorts out the wheat from the chaff.

You are right too, I for one was far from panicking on the day. Maybe did a little dance or two… but remained fairly calm the whole day, and even took the time to post once the bottom was reached in the morning, and then later got back to working on my charts and strategies as per usual.

The only point I disagree with you on is that realist was probably the exception to the group listed (bet he was howling as his portfolio took a hit).

Fully agree, the newbies need to be very careful in this market, and if you can’t trade short or non-directionally, this could be a severe disadvantage.


Mag

 

[Kauri]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Please excuse the capitals but one has to tackle ones intellectual opponents who shout, with shouting.


I find it distressing that nobody has posted their profits on this correction. If I were a daytrader I would have carefully plotted my gains and losses over 28/2 and 1/3.

Why could such a significantly talented team of technical analylists fail to anticipate, or utilise this correction.

Why have the very talented anylists in this forum spent more time discussing why .......

Garpal,
If you post trades after they are completed you get accused of being a hindsight trader. For a while I posted trade setups I was set to enter complete with entry point and stop but after a couple of emails pointing out that this is sailing close to the wind re giving advice I no longer do that. (Incidentally one of the emails was from a member here but signed off with another members nickname.... ooops.. ). Dreamers may build castles in the sky, but schitzophrenics live in them.
I posted a short trade yesterday on the ASX 200 based on the chart and call/put ratio just after I had entered and again as I closed it, without specifying entry and exit points. I have just closed out a long CCL trade based on the same principles, have closed out a failed long LHG trade, and currently have shorts open on RIO and WDC.

 

[tech/a]

Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Dreamers may build castles in the sky, but schitzophrenics live in them.

Classic!!!!!!!