Joules MM1 Blog

[Joules MM1]

"all the info you need is in the bars, at all levels of time....."

this is what i have been taught as the starting point and the basis of all trade decisions.....

to supplement that, i found these websites to be interesting, not so much as a way of decision making, rather, as a way of finding actuality versus opine.....remembering that all trade decisions are current until complete and not executed in hindsight ....some data are useful in context, however, that data is usually already within the price bars as they unfurl and the bars ratify (or verify) what is in the data and the not the other way around which opposes what i most commonly see in forums and chat rooms......maybe a little like circular breathing....all the information i need is in the price bars.....

check them out anyways

http://sigmabands.blogspot.com/
http://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html
http://www.pivotfarm.com/
http://technicalindicators.com/stockmarket.htm
http://www.verticalsolutions.co/forecasts.html
http://www.freestockcharts.com/ (i do use this one for spx volume only)
http://www.advfn.com
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/
http://markettells.com/

sigmabands is a blog and you should read up the original Hurst work so you can context the blog.....the parent site is a paid subscription....ive posted all free data except markettells which is a subscription site for US futures big picture......

 

[Joules MM1]

a good time to be closed in a long closed index pos and short sold the same index.....the xjo looks like it will complete a squaring with head and shoulders thingome......the spx is currently testing the bottom of the side channel as i type this and i suspect that there'll be a concerted effort to force psychology downward to set-up a buy into the new year.....gold is on the boil for a lot of talking heads and Terry Laundry shows a strong bullish T scenario whiles Bobby jnr shows why there is good deflationary reason that gold should sink in a contra to the usd as the recent re-inflation of credit debt rolls over......the dow has made a final higher high against a back drop of a weak rut and bkx/xlf sector.....the djta index is not confirmative of anything atm......this current period has many hallmarks of distribution but not a lead into a major trend change......

 

[Joules MM1]

the xjo has aligned its futures peel away with the ftse and spx with no opening games from the uk players suggests we'll have a few days before the accummulation phase restarts.......in the meantime a strong cash build-up.....

att is the confluent view i have currently for the xjo

 

[Joules MM1]

the 4150/4155 as shown in the cfd is a squaring zone and there are a couple of other factors but not to get to naval staring the flow needs to be confirmed

 

[Joules MM1]

looking for 1070 spx to cover.....i'll need to see a divergence in the adv/dec although, as the adv/dec stands now, i see divergence that supports an intermediate move downward.....at the least 1070

 

[Joules MM1]

the thanksgiving days futures massacre is almost realised and my target of 1070 on the spx is but 4 points away.....interesting how so many forums are so bullish about the moves in the cash and that probably means they arent currently aware of the futures moves.........taken some small plays on the aud/usd which looks to be negative to .77 for the nearest channel target over the next few weeks...........

 

[Joules MM1]

http://simon-gillis.blogspot.com/2009/11/comparing-great-depression-with-current.html

http://www.coveritlive.com/index.ph...&altcast_code=cfe98e6461&height=600&width=600

http://bit.ly/YPl7r
tradingtheodds

 

[Joules MM1]

been several months since i played on the dax, so, time to get wet with tiny size as its on a gap down on nefarious news, boj qe news....daily context strong trend....the gap looks complete with a test, first solid hook with changed character of transactions, new players enter, during same time frame gold is showing clear distinct plays be several groups short term and long term players getting marginal swings in the chop, now real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work in usual size on size game.....several fib ratios pop straight out again suggesting different groups entering, doing business and leaving no real dominance......at the dax low i see that play so the context comes into focus, time to be long and look to for price to at least engage the high of the fib measurements, thus, two trigger reasons aside from the how the price is unfolding as we're in price territory that i've seen and my risk on the low side is good for long entrance with clear exit now that i've established a low in gold which also looks like opportunity plays finished for this time of the day.....also, as a btw, the XJO sydney team did not dump, key signature and the SPX looks to have overshot the opportunity to clean house of stop-sells below......amongst many things these are the thoughts for the plays, doesnt matter if theyre 10 zeros or no zeros the game doesnt change so my size in this is not the point, the trade i the point and especially the dax as i've tended to shy away from it for a long time.....
the purpose of this blog note is simply a thought process, ignore the other trades, theyre just listed to show that the trades exist (so far today anyways) and i've finished for the day on the dax, income is inline with the risk and tiny size used at $55.82 over 64 minutes ......i find if i am going to add size best to do it once trend is (re)established or i can cleanly see a game being played either for acc or distribution.....just trading "flow" without either the right data such as the dom is fairly silly unless i can line up a lot of ducks in a row......so todays trades (thus far) are all 5-10 sec + 3/15/30/120 min and daily charts no indicators only addition was some ratios from inverted/extention fibs and only as risk profile not for aggressive positioning.....i dont call this scalping or call it anything other than reading intent......thus far my open plays on gold and spx look strong......so i have two time frames i'm often playing and one is the dominant trend and the other is lowest time frame chop that clearly sits within the context of the frame and i can exit without being stranded......yesterdays trades are on twitter

thus far you can see i still BTO 20 SPX at 1396.81 + BTO 5 XJO 4386 both being part of daily profile and i shall have those over the weekend, other data unknown.......

so the purpose is just to show two things from a beginners pov, first, tiny size gives you supreme control and allows to experience live trades with low risk and with control you gain confidence by diarising the plays and rehearsing them over and over....basic Steenbarger ideas in that......you know, i used to argue for demo accounts but theyre all lacking in some way and there's no sub for the real trade set-up forcing you to get correct focus......also replaying a realtime event or series of events that the brain can comprehend replaces in huge spades compared to a simulated version because of the dynamic.....



even tho these are tiny live trades they represent ideas to consider and to think of new questions on.......

 

[Joules MM1]

edit: this sentence "swings in the chop, now real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work..."

should read

"... no real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work"

 

[Joules MM1]

similar deal, with a dominant with-trend pos playing the lower time frame to capture swings against the trend as they re-align with the trend with the major idea coming from intra market views....obviously in isolation this is diff game with much higher risk

 

[Joules MM1]

http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNetwork/100/8103/Why-Algorithms-Arent-Your-Enemy/

 

[ishakeel]

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Joules MM1]

this was meant to be a reply post to an FX trade and chart posted today, however, i think in the interest of good manners (or maybe to avoid a dust-up) i've put it here ....posting in this blog is purely thinking outloud

how is this dangerous for "newbies" or even "oldbies"

the main reason for the danger is, first, there is no 50% Pisano Fibonacci measure, secondly, a 50% pullback is typical for many traders to exit on, for new sells to come in and drown accummulation, it's a common ground , thirdly once a Fibonacci is broken it's usually a continuation signal, the level gets broken, a small retest and then back in the same direction of the break, fourthly, your Fib appears to be applied generically and upside-down(why 23.6 when 27.2 triggers more often etc) so you are not looking to fit any other rmeasure, fifth, you are more likely to find the resistance by looking for the extension measure of 75040 to 78698 and applying that to the low, sixth, if you have to use a regime such as a Fib then may as well apply the Elliott as well, oh yay, a five wave decline with an overlapping target of the underside of wave one down by a fourth wave bounce with typical ABCDE characterisitics and maybe you'll find Fib measures in those too......lol......finally, maybe get rid of some of those tram tracks so you can actually concentrate on the (historic) picture in front of you

this style of trading is a hit and miss affair, a non-verified or unassociated application of an upside down Fibonacci measure and you havent shown the lower time frame that verifies the Evening Star thing, in other words, applying the same game again to the next chart is just as likely to go r s over tit as it is to work in your favour and exactly the reasons so many traders lose on large time frame appearance of candle and fibs because youre not uncovering the underlying game ....it is far more likely that the candle formation is a random appearance of the group of traders than it any efficacy of a trade set-up and we arent seeing stats that say otherwise.....

this is just my two cents worth on un-promoting what is shown here to 'work'

newbies
go across chat rooms on the interweb and you'll find a plethora of these "it worked" charts .....finding good explanation for them is quite difficult, you get a fraction of the picture, usually wrong and remember the ideas are fine for chatting about but applying to the next trade is, i say with humility, incomplete and misleading.....

someone once said, once a trader has decided to make the trade on whatever your preferred triggers are (in this case a candle formation and a Fib) then the rest is about money management and while i agree with that thinking i add that you can money manage your way into zero funds by a thousand cuts with this type of application, so, still these set formulas that come from text book ideas have a limited protective value.....i've proven to myself that a colour by numbers approach is fine but trading signals, that are at best subjective has a high lose ratio

USD/ZAR

 

[Joules MM1]

spot trades pre US cash open.....looking for ratio'd low and completion of transition from weak shorters to swing longs

 

[Joules MM1]

 

[Joules MM1]

after clicking the bar above the jpeg, go control key and scroll the mouse wheel to enlarge

 

[Joules MM1]

http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interim.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimii.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimiii.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimiv.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimv.jpg

slowly improving the alpha......just 3 drawdowns today on the xjo on 160 trades .....for the sake of mentioning, no, this is not a sim account.....i prefer tiny size for less distraction....i like to ride the silver contract on the back of momentum on spot gold and i have a wide range play on spot so the inside plays are purely pick n roll the smaller time frames while keeping a plan on the daily......the more i even think that stuff the more i'm moving to single tiny trades for safey.....the smaller the trade the smaller the time frame the safer my game seems to get.....happy bout that......

 

[Joules MM1]

http://s766.photobucket.com/home/joulesmm1/set/59919

.....have the machine back soon that has camtasia .....that'll be better for fine tuning....then the hardwork begins.......

 

[Joules MM1]

yes, with each fib broken, i'm thinking this looks like a set-up to sell into a divergent low.....really shake the tree.....and the eye sees what the brain tells it to look for and this is what i saw while summarising todays trades so far.......just leapt off the page.....broad ideas

 

[Joules MM1]

sad faces for some after the stagging of the most anticipated stock release since famed tech years with an open at the price high and close at the absolute low, big red candle day....

a quick anecdotal around the generics shows a TRIN complacent without a screaming buy signal relative to recent declines on a 10 day basis while being oversold on the day itself hinting at least a 1 to 2 days of buying, probably starting monday as it's mutual funds buying day, but, that's the pros at the open, so after the first hour on monday all eyes firmly on any more drift through the monthly 12sma or a follow-through bear trap....
and watching the TED which is bullish liquidity side for credit debt expansion.....curious..normally, upon a major sell signal, there is an accompanying signal from the TED and that's not there right now, which is a buy-the-dip idea but it's a big ship to steer.....everything from the cumulative NYAD adv/dec to the number of nyse stocks running below their 200 m/a continues to grow, heading south again hinting that we need to trap a few bears to get some upward momentum......frankly, running stops and trapping weak shorts looks like the only game to lift price right now regardless of any intrinsic/fundamental fair value, which we appear to be at for the s&p500....the overlapping nature of the xjo also has the hallmarks of a very large interruption a downtrend, that's incomplete.....Joe Glanville came out and said, just prior to the recent upleg, that history showed a major lack of participation just prior to a major decline and he had history and data on his side so maybe he was a just a tad early.....dow theory calls for a retest of the highs in both the spx and the TRANs of which one must fail to make a new high to call in a sell signal......my fave still sits with a close below the montlhy 12 sma and a failed retest of that for a bear market to be confirmed and that's a multi week task......a few (more) ducks need to line up before we declare new bear phase or a resumption of the secular bear market.....i'll be looking to see how the SML index reacts to the 200 m/a are the fundees buying off that trigger and how the XFL bounces back from the 2.5% trouncing on friday....prior to the recent declines the SPXA50R was failing to make new highs and a clear divergence showing....the reason i am focused on that is simply that if i put all the technicals of say the SPY and GOLD and 30/10 year studies to the side, i am left with who is actually lifting the markets and if the power is lacking across the board then we simply need to come south for a while to regain/restart the upside.....sell the highs buy the lows + go down to get up......simple.....

am inclined to think we should do a few large rotations while liquidity begins to swap sides as a standard market fair.....it is afterall an auction of values, at least, the idea of value.....this means (i'm thinking outloud for my own planning) that no reaching for a one-sided game unless we get a clean break a 100 points below fridays close with a strong reversal in the TED to confirm the mar 09 up-phase is complete, otherwise a large swapping of positions is the go for the next 'few' weeks.....the major sword hanging over everyones head is the SX7P chart....oh, yeah that needs to find a low soon-azz !

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
TED, TRAN, TRIN, NYAD, SPXA50R, SPXA200R

Market Watch charts
SX7P and XLF

if your reading this blog and dont know the codes please google them for an educational pov

for TRIN select thick line and the 10 sma
for TED select candles
for Tran select candles
for NYAD select cumulative